February 11-12; 12-13: Are they real??

[T. August]

SoMD getting smoked at 36

[yoda]

DC metro 6" by 36 (00z Wed) on 12z NAM 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Full NAMing incoming this looks great

[yoda]

Ripping still at 39... mod snow still back at the OH/WV border

Upper 20s for temps 

[clskinsfan]

NAM'd HARD.

[yoda]

System winding down at 42 but still snowing across the region 

[T. August]

Looks similar to 6z with the distribution. Wetter down around DC though. Not sure how much of a difference it made north of bmore yet.

[LP08]

10+ on 10-1 on that run in DC

[yoda]

Still snowing lightly at 45 on 12z NAM

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, T. August said:

Looks similar to 6z with the distribution. Wetter down around DC though. Not sure how much of a difference it made north of bmore yet.

0.75 QPF around BWI

[aldie 22]

All of the models seem stubborn in their placement of the heavy accumulations the edges are definitely defined now i think

[T. August]

Just now, yoda said:

0.75 QPF around BWI

Yeah north of there looks like +.1” precip from the 6z run, so definitely better 

[yoda]

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3K is about the same for DC but improved a bit for the northern crew.

[stormtracker]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

First and probably final call unless things change dramatically. Last time I was too bullish, so this time I'm being conservative.

NAM laughs at this.   Too bad it’s the NAM. 

[deer]

3k has snow arriving in DC at 2pm

[yoda]

12z NAM Kuchera through 48

12z NAM 10:1 though 48

 

[high risk]

NAM parent vs. nest timing is still the difference between whether Maryland schools can open tomorrow (and dismiss early) or have to be closed for the day.

[Eskimo Joe]

Unlike previous events this winter, the NAM has juiced up as we're closing. Plus it's falling at night. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z NAM Kuchera through 48

12z NAM 10:1 though 48

 

So basically the NAM is overdone as usual? Lol

[87storms]

Nam and gfs seem on an island with the 0.5” precip line right on or near Frederick. The other models have it more towards dc and south. Regardless, looks like a 2-4” minor event is likely. Next interesting thing to track will be temps leading in.

[ravensrule]

20 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I think you are confused. Go reread. I said that 5-7 is south of Baltimore, and in the latest post I said that north of Baltimore is under 5 inches. 
 

I just fixed the original post of the user saying south of the M/D line was 5-7. 

I think you’re confused like usual. 
 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z NAM Kuchera through 48

12z NAM 10:1 though 48

 

Man i wish

[rjvanals]

3K NAM with a general 4-8 N-S is more realistic than the the regular NAM

[EstorilM]

25 minutes ago, hstorm said:

Pre-storm obs: Brine trucks out in force on Georgetown Pike. 

LOL I used to live off that road, closer to the beltway though. Miss the old Arby's (that was totally out of place) in town.

They haven't run the brine trucks out here yet in Loudoun (by me anyways) but I'm sure they're starting to.

I'm kinda worried about temps for this one, I'm north of the jackpot zone, but I think accumulation-wise (by sunset or so) areas north of the jackpot might be about even by that point.

I live near a creek bed / valley and it's typically 5-10 degrees below fcst for that area and other spots locally, so I'm hoping it piles up tomorrow.

[MDScienceTeacher]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

0.75 QPF around BWI

That would do it

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

3K NAM with a general 4-8 N-S is more realistic than the the regular NAM

this is probably way more realistic than a foot downtown lol.  NAM is almost always overdone. 

[BlizzardNole]

What a winter for Calvert if that holds!  Hey there Wes

[deer]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

3K NAM with a general 4-8 N-S is more realistic than the the regular NAM

Serious question, can we stop posting 12k NAM snow maps? We all know the 3k is more realistic.

[yoda]

12z 3km NAM Kuchera