NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 05:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:25 PM Just now, bncho said: its a good 50-100 milse south yep - deleted my post. It's a little nuanced since the southern "edge" really didn't move all that south, but the heaviest band did and the northern fringe is gone. Sorta semantics but the heavy band is what's important to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 05:25 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:25 PM LOL...Euro might get better after all....follow up moisture trying to get into the fray while we're still cold 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: yep - deleted my post. It's a little nuanced since the southern "edge" really didn't move all that south, but the heaviest band did and the northern fringe is gone. Sorta semantics but the heavy band is what's important to us. its a good run still... 6-10" DC south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Hold on..something dif is happening at hour 69...juice from the south trying to come up wow, yeah. Delayed not denied. Much heavier early Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM That follow up helped from Montgomery county south. That's the 4" line. Pretty map people can confirm or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Yall gotta remember the boundary is shifting north as these different waves track east. Which is why we are getting mostly rain early Thursday. The initial push of snow will look south but it should jump north some as the boundary begins to come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM the run has been salvaged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM wetter, def a hair souther. Ends up being noise. Apologies for the roller coaster 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted Sunday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:28 PM qpf max went up, i like this run more than 6z. just went south due to noise with the confluence which doesn't get sampled till tomorrow anyways. i like this change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Sunday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:28 PM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: wetter, def a hair souther. Ends up being noise. Apologies for the roller coaster No problem whatsoever I appreciate the pretty blue and purple maps. This looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:30 PM 12z EURO has the CAD hang on better for the Pt.2 (Pt. 3?) Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Pretty icy for NMD, I-81 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted Sunday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:31 PM Light snow starting at DCA around 3pmQuite delayed. GFS pushed start time back a bit as well, right?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:31 PM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z EURO has the CAD hang on better for the Pt.2 (Pt. 3?) Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Pretty icy for NMD, I-81 So long Bob chill and friends 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z EURO has the CAD hang on better for the Pt.2 (Pt. 3?) Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Pretty icy for NMD, I-81 Would be a crazy ice storm down by Blacksburg 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM WB 15Z NBM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:33 PM Just now, Imgoinhungry said: Quite delayed. GFS pushed start time back a bit as well, right? . Yep - it pushed the start time back about 4 hours and pushed the heavy snow overnight. For two runs that end pretty much identical, you can see how much slower the accumulating snow is. Overnight is helpful, though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted Sunday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:37 PM 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: We’re sinking the pink a bit. Right where want it 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:38 PM 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: wetter, def a hair souther. Ends up being noise. Apologies for the roller coaster Big improvement for us here southern folk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Right where want it 48 hours out. I wouldn't count on a North trend. This year has been different so far. I would love a North trend but not sure how much we get of one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 15Z NBM That's alot of rain they're showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM With no block in place, central MD is still very much in the game for 6”. I suspect a slight bump north in the final 24-36 hours. DC folks appear to be in a great spot for this one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM Some one said it earlier but imagine making a forecast for 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Right where want it 48 hours out. This is a tough one. Seems high impact event. Yet it’s hard to get full on excited as start times are pushed to the right and temp concerns. It’s not clean. I’m probably over thinking it. 18z will be interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Sunday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:43 PM 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: That's alot of rain they're showing Can a modeling expert chime in to these differences please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted Sunday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:43 PM 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: That's alot of rain they're showing Yeah. Snow washed away by rain is on the table for most. Just have to make the most of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Sunday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:43 PM I wouldn't count on a North trend. This year has been different so far. I would love a North trend but not sure how much we get of one.January 6th and yesterday’s wave both went north in the final 24-36 hours. Not sure this year’s been *that* different. No block in place yet. Need a more SW to NE track than W to E but a slight bump is certainly possible as we get closer. Wouldn’t expect some massive jump, but I expect 25+ miles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Sunday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:43 PM 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I wouldn't count on a North trend. This year has been different so far. I would love a North trend but not sure how much we get of one. There's not really a -NAO like the January 6 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Sunday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:43 PM 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I wouldn't count on a North trend. This year has been different so far. I would love a North trend but not sure how much we get of one. North trend hasn't happened in years, it feels like...at least not since 2019. Last month there was one modeled but that banding materialized way north, smh I guess I ought just set my expectation at 3-5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:44 PM 1 minute ago, jayyy said: January 6th and yesterday’s wave both went north in the final 24-36 hours. Not sure this year’s been *that* different. No block in place yet. Need a more SW to NE track than W to E but a slight bump is certainly possible as we get closer. Wouldn’t expect some massive jump, but I expect 25+ miles The other storm in January that screwed c md and DC definitely went NW as well. 7” IMBY edit to add you don’t want a W-E trajectory, makes a NW trend less likely for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Sunday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:46 PM With no block in place, central MD is still very much in the game for 6”. I suspect a slight bump north in the final 24-36 hours. DC folks appear to be in a great spot for this one. There is no blocking ? If it wasn’t for blocking this would mostly rain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: January 6th and yesterday’s wave both went north in the final 24-36 hours. Not sure this year’s been *that* different. No block in place yet. Need a more SW to NE track than W to E but a slight bump is certainly possible as we get closer. Wouldn’t expect some massive jump, but I expect 25+ miles Trust me, I hope we do get that north Trend. Another 50 miles would be great. I've noticed the last few years you can't just count on them like we used to. Not sure if it's models being more accurate but it's not as pronounced as it once was. I think for this year there's been a trend in the medium to short range to deamp systems which is probably some of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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