February 11-12; 12-13: Are they real??

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

I dont belive it bro. Been burnt way to many times down here with the North trend lol 

Your local Mets will make sure it’s not fun by posting the 1-2 inch line with some 3 inches north of the airport to around Ashland and Ladysmith. Until we’re at 0 hour.  Hopefully you are north Richmond.  

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Do models account for bright banding and sleet? I have a feeling that's why the pink is so bright down in VA.

They try to - but not sure the GFS succeeds. I have no ill-will toward the RIC folks but the fact that the EURO shows nothing like that has to raise substantial flags.

[87storms]

Not a very good run at all for DC north unless you're cool with a minor event (I'm kind of over those, but understand that others are happy with whatever falls).  Precip output is mediocre and there's only a weak surface low off the coast of North Carolina.

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Do models account for bright banding and sleet? I have a feeling that's why the pink is so bright down in VA.

Snow depth down here is like 6-7". Temps hover 32-33° whole time looks like.  

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

They try to - but not sure the GFS succeeds. I have no ill-will toward the RIC folks but the fact that the EURO shows nothing like that has to raise substantial flags.

It does -so my call for here in RVA is 3-5"-I think it's similar to concerns for you guys up there that you get fringed and northern areas for you get next to nothing

[WxUSAF]

GGEM looks quite nice to my eye. I like the slightly slower shift on 12z guidance. Not much precip for MBY before sunset.

[Fozz]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s wait and see what the UK and Euro have to say before we panic over the worst of the global being south. Ric could win for sure but it’s not very climatological favored. Plus would be a shame that is below the “it’s supposed to snow” line. People they live there don’t deserve snow because any true snow weenie would never abide living somewhere that goes years without a snow and averages what I get in a few hours on a good day. 

So where is that “it’s supposed to snow” line? Somewhere near Fredericksburg?

[Sernest14]

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Your local Mets will make sure it’s not fun by posting the 1-2 inch line with some 3 inches north of the airport to around Ashland and Ladysmith. Until we’re at 0 hour.  Hopefully you are north Richmond.  

Surprisingly they started calling yesterday 3-6/4-7 (7 line through ashland).  

[stormtracker]

Yeah, now we're starting to see like a 2 parter from Tuesday to Thursday

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

They try to - but not sure the GFS succeeds. I have no ill-will toward the RIC folks but the fact that the EURO shows nothing like that has to raise substantial flags.

GFS is the most south among guidance, and even ticked a bit more souther at 12z. Its doing typical GFS things.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS is the most south among guidance, and even ticked a bit more souther at 12z. Its doing typical GFS things.

Would not be surprised to have the GFS trend North next 24 to 48 hours. 

[TSG]

The ice threat Wednesday afternoon/evening is starting to look a little scary west of Rt15

[jlewis1111]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

Would not be surprised to have the GFS trend North next 24 to 48 hours. 

Of course backyard favoritism

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, TSG said:

The ice threat Wednesday afternoon/evening is starting to look a little scary west of Rt15

Yeah I'm wondering if that later Wednesday and Wednesday night period might turn out more...interesting...in time.  The other day it appeared that we'd get a decent thump of snow Tuesday into maybe early Wednesday with the first wave, and then rain after.  Now...???

[wxmvpete]

Last five runs of the GEFS for 24-hr snowfall probabilities >4". Shows the current 12Z GFS snowfall footprint is south of the ensembles while also being south of the rest of guidance with snow in south-central VA. Still likes northern VA most. Note however with the warm nose aloft closer to the central VA and a pretty narrow DGZ, I think those areas on the southern periphery (including along and south of I-66) may be hard pressed to have SLRs of 10:1 for the peak of the event. It's why snowfall is less on the Kuchera compared to the straight 10:1 SLR maps.

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Fozz said:

So where is that “it’s supposed to snow” line? Somewhere near Fredericksburg?

North of the spotsy line it’s supposed  snow…not sure what happens south of there…palm trees grow I guess 

[DDweatherman]

6z UKMET at h66 looked solid, trying to post but can’t get the file small enough here on mobile lol 

[midatlanticweather]

My thoughts (and they mean nothing as they are guesses) Tuesday into Wednesday comes a bit north on precip amounts. Thursday ends up a rainier system than mixing out this way. Think the GFS is a bit cold. I would take what it shows and be happy!

 

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

Of course backyard favoritism

Exactly-could that happen? Of course-but GFS hasn't shown that 

[clskinsfan]

GFS and CMC are very similar in having no stop in precip out this way between waves. Snow to sleet to freezing drizzle and then dry slot. Ends up being 36 hour of frozen precip. 

[TSG]

11 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Yeah I'm wondering if that later Wednesday and Wednesday night period might turn out more...interesting...in time.  The other day it appeared that we'd get a decent thump of snow Tuesday into maybe early Wednesday with the first wave, and then rain after.  Now...???

The big change I'm seeing is precip never really shuts off for much of the area Wednesday afternoon before the next batch makes it's way in from the "Thursday storm". The spacing there seems much tighter on the GFS compared to 24hrs ago. That'll help the CAD hang on longer and would def increase ice totals.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Ukmet looks better than the GFS for the Northern Crew. (Not that it's a shock)

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, TSG said:

The big change I'm seeing is precip never really shuts off for much of the area Wednesday before the next batch makes it's way in from the "Thursday storm". The spacing there seems much tighter on the GFS compared to 24hrs ago. That'll help the CAD hang on longer and would def increase ice totals.

Does the existing snow pack impact the 2m temps?  Always wondered that.  

[Buddy1987]

Any met or long time lurker  ( @clskinsfan @nj2va @CAPE) want to give me their best shot as to what they think shakes down this way in SW VA? We are so close on the line down here between a heavy snow or heavy ice scenario I’m having a hard time. How out on an island do you think GFS is compared to other guidance?

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Fozz said:

So where is that “it’s supposed to snow” line? Somewhere near Fredericksburg?

I dunno i was just trolling. We could debate  that 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ukmet looks better than the GFS for the Northern Crew. (Not that it's a shock)

I was gonna say it’s kinda GFS-like, but maybe you are further in the run. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I was gonna say it’s kinda GFS-like, but maybe you are further in the run. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I was gonna say it’s kinda GFS-like, but maybe you are further in the run. 

Nope, Ralph is off on this one. UK is definitely a nod to the GFS. Moved the max to the south of 0z. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks about the  same or a little less then gfs

[DDweatherman]

No one has any clue what the Euro is gonna do here in a few. My bet is it’ll be a bit wetter than 6z and a touch south.