SnowenOutThere Posted Sunday at 03:01 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:01 AM NAM seems like it would keep precip around for an extended time even after wave two, which may lend itself to a decent snow to ice event before the thermals are completely destroyed by the Thursday storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Sunday at 03:02 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:02 AM 1 hour ago, EstorilM said: It’s still just bizarre to me that I’m on a nation-wide forum (granted in a regional sub) and a meme pops up like this. I’m in Middleburg, basically a few minutes between Leesburg and Aldie off 15 lol. Also, I guess I missed some drama between the 12z and 18z?? This sub is beginning to remind me of X. lolz 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Sunday at 03:03 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:03 AM 22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This isnt a fail. I am sorry. This has been progged to be a south jack for DAYS at this point. Not a fail when it's nam at the end of it's run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 03:08 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:08 AM 7 minutes ago, Jebman said: This sub is beginning to remind me of X. lolz Yeah. The site is getting ridiculous at this point. But of course we live in the battle zone area for snow. Some win some lose in the Mid Atlantic. That is the way the game works here. I will add people from PA really arent in our region anyways.....so yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted Sunday at 03:09 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:09 AM I was ready to give up on this storm. And then I saw the Euro. Let’s pull this north! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 03:11 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:11 AM Just now, Fozz said: I was ready to give up on this storm. And then I saw the Euro. Let’s pull this north! I think it ticks north a touch. They all do. But the jack is going to be south. People need to accept this. The modelling is pretty consistent on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Sunday at 03:13 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:13 AM Just now, clskinsfan said: I think it ticks north a touch. They all do. But the jack is going to be south. People need to accept this. The modelling is pretty consistent on that. I mean the 18z euro verbatim oughta please most of the forum...kuchera looked to be a rather uniform 6-8" didn't it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 03:15 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:15 AM Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I mean the 18z euro verbatim oughta please most of the forum...kuchera looked to be a rather uniform 6-8" didn't it? 3-5 is probably the real expectation out of the first wave for most of us imo. Second wave may have some surprises if the cold can hang on a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Sunday at 03:16 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:16 AM Icon a tick north and better through 78 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Sunday at 03:20 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:20 AM 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. The site is getting ridiculous at this point. But of course we live in the battle zone area for snow. Some win some lose in the Mid Atlantic. That is the way the game works here. I will add people from PA really arent in our region anyways.....so yeah. lol - still doesn't hold a candle to the era before subforums. vicious battles back then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 03:20 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:20 AM ICON wave 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted Sunday at 03:21 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:21 AM ICON wave 1Start and end time for wave 1?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 03:21 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:21 AM 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Icon a tick north and better through 78 ends up worse once you get north of DC, unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 03:22 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:22 AM RGEM is a weird evolution - there is an end-of-run flip to sleet/FRZA here too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Sunday at 03:22 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:22 AM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: ends up worse once you get north of DC, unfortunately Just shunted and fizzled after that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Sunday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:24 AM 0z rgem is 3-5” through 84 for most DC-north. There’s more to come after 84 as well. Temps were holding steady even at the end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted Sunday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:24 AM Not sure if anyone has seen this yet. Tomer's got an experimental site going, which includes p-type for the EC AIFS. Pretty cool! https://polarwx.com/models/?model=aifs&base=ptype_estimate&background=plain&state=states_brown&country=countries_brown&proj=conus&archive=false&run=2025020818 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Sunday at 03:26 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:26 AM Yeah, the jack will be south of the CWA as clskinsfan said. Models are clear as day on that. The question is, does DC and possibly Baltimore get in on those totals around 6” as well if there’s enough of a north push over the coming 2-3 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted Sunday at 03:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:27 AM Yeah. The site is getting ridiculous at this point. But of course we live in the battle zone area for snow. Some win some lose in the Mid Atlantic. That is the way the game works here. I will add people from PA really arent in our region anyways.....so yeah. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted Sunday at 03:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:28 AM This forum has the best logic: 1. Models show jackpot to the north: MODELS ALWAYS TREND NORTH. IT’S OVER! 2. Models show jackpot over us: MODELS ALWAYS TREND NORTH. iT’S OVER! 3. Models show jackpot to the south: IT’S STAYING SOUTH. IT’S OVER. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 03:31 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:31 AM 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: RGEM is a weird evolution - there is an end-of-run flip to sleet/FRZA here too Way out in range for the RGEM. Not ugly though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Sunday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:32 AM 2 minutes ago, hstorm said: This forum has the best logic: 1. Models show jackpot to the north: MODELS ALWAYS TREND NORTH. IT’S OVER! 2. Models show jackpot over us: MODELS ALWAYS TREND NORTH. iT’S OVER! 3. Models show jackpot to the south: IT’S STAYING SOUTH. IT’S OVER. ALL OF THESE SCENARIOS HAVE HAPPENED AND IT IS PAINFUL TRAUMA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Sunday at 03:37 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:37 AM GFS is running, good luck to all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DraydenWX Posted Sunday at 03:41 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:41 AM Damn, looking over these pages is painful. Hell hath no fury like a Weather Weenie scorned. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 03:46 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:46 AM GFS a touch colder heading in. We will see what that means... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 03:50 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:50 AM looks pretty similar at hr60 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Sunday at 03:51 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:51 AM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: looks pretty similar at hr60 Bit of a N push wrt the surface stuff associated with the wave out near Oklahoma at 60 vs 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 03:52 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:52 AM I think it will come a touch north off of the 500 maps. Not a lot. but a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Sunday at 03:52 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:52 AM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: looks pretty similar at hr60 Surface wise yes H5 looks markedly different out west though. No idea what it means, thats for someone smarter than me to parse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Sunday at 03:52 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:52 AM Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Bit of a N push wrt the surface stuff associated with the wave out near Oklahoma at 60 Nice run coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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