February 11-12; 12-13: Are they real??

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

That’s Crush Davis….

I'm talking 2021 Chris Davis not 2015. 

[Weather Will]

Nice improvement in WB 18Z ICON 

[poolz1]

30 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The Nam is doing what I thought the other models have been trying to do at the end of it's run. There's a second piece of energy that slides up after the initial weak pos wave comes through earlier during the day. It's our best shot for northern areas to get snow prior to the next storm sliding west of us on Thursday. This is more overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  My hope is that becomes a bit more well defined. 

RGEM with 2-4 with that second wave.  Agreed, we need that to juice up if we want a shot at 2-4.  Euro tried at it.  

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Nice improvement in WB 18Z ICON 

Icon did what the Nam was doing at the end of its run

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Nice improvement in WB 18Z ICON 

This should now be everyone's reasonable expectation.  I changed mine and I'm pleased.  We were never going to get those clown amounts on the GFS.   Ain't nobody got time to be punting on any accumulating snow

[Ji]

Nice improvement in WB 18Z ICON 

It’s only an improvement if it happens twice in a row

[Weather Will]

Something I can't show is a lot more precip moves in Wed night. on ICON. Looks like some ice on top of the snow especially NW before all rain.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

This should now be everyone's reasonable expectation.  I changed mine and I'm pleased.  We were never going to get those clown amounts on the GFS.   Ain't nobody got time to be punting on any accumulating snow

my bar remains at 2" - which has allowed me to keep some sanity. I might up it to 3" if the surface could get a bit colder somehow

[RVAman]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This should now be everyone's reasonable expectation.  I changed mine and I'm pleased.  We were never going to get those clown amounts on the GFS.   Ain't nobody got time to be punting on any accumulating snow

The NAM is concerning me for the Richmond area. Other models look decent, 4-6 inches but likely 2-3 due to the warmth. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, RVAman said:

The NAM is concerning me for the Richmond area. Other models look decent, 4-6 inches but likely 2-3 due to the warmth. 

I wouldn't sweat the NAM quite yet.

[winter_warlock]

Sterling  says. Expect the  north and south shifts for another day or two before models nail it down.....

 

"This feature will not be fully sampled over the CONUS
for another day or so, so the so called wind shield wiper effect of
south/north shifts in model output is expected"

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Did we just get ICON'd...relatively speaking? 

[stormtracker]

GFS seems to be about the same...but that surface freezing jumped north a bit.  Definitely a warmer surface

[stormtracker]

Drier down south...surface fzg line is way different tho.  hmmm. it's so much warmer at the surface than 12z

[aldie 22]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Drier down south...surface fzg line is way different tho.  hmmm. it's so much warmer at the surface than 12z

North 

[stormtracker]

Going to be a drier run it appears.   

[stormtracker]

Interesting...the second slug kinda is a bit further north.  It seems slower...it's wetter, later, lol.  Might be a wash.  

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Interesting...the second slug kinda is a bit further north.  It seems slower...it's wetter, later, lol.  Might be a wash.  

Snow line is down near RIC at 84 FWIW 

[stormtracker]

Snow maps are actually pretty good.  Surprising considering the surface.  RIC is the winner with this run

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Going to be a drier run it appears.   

all things considered identical thru 90

[Terpeast]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Interesting...the second slug kinda is a bit further north.  It seems slower...it's wetter, later, lol.  Might be a wash.  

Looks like the second slug idea might have legs

[stormtracker]

Just now, yoda said:

Snow line is down near RIC at 84 FWIW 

Trying to figure out how it's accumulating at like 34 degrees at first...but hey, what do I know

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

all things considered identical thru 90

Yes, I said that after the second slug came through.   Can't tell if it was slower or just different

[Terpeast]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Trying to figure out how it's accumulating at like 34 degrees at first...but hey, what do I know

Probably best to let the CAMS figure out the thermals a bit closer in. We have a 1036 high up top

[NorthArlington101]

I guess it depends how you prefer your snow but arguable "downside" of this run is that the snowfall rate is like 0.3"/hr max... long ass snowstorm. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

all things considered identical thru 90

Actually a little better down around RIC

[Terpeast]

6” line bisecting DC w to e. Probably translates to 4” otg

[aldie 22]

Remember when this was one wave then it started showing snow on Monday then switched to Tuesday then a wed/Thursday slug looks like we're morphing into a weak wave one then a strong 2?? Who the F knows

[nj2va]

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

6” line bisecting DC w to e. Probably translates to 4” otg

Something like that  - there are more hours then I like where the surface temps are over 32 in DC. Might need to go to the other side of the river for this one? @stormtracker not poo-pooing our event but I kinda assume if it snows 0.3"/hr in DC at 34 during the daytime it never snowed in the first place?