psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:46 PM 6 minutes ago, 87storms said: It's kind of impressive how the models are showing just about every way we can miss with every wave next week. Too far south, too weak, too north. The only one that is too far south is that weak frontrunner wave that happens to come along during a very short window of opportunity when the boundary is far enough south as a transient arctic high slides by to our north between waves...had something actually come along during that 24 hour window we could have got snow...but its such a short window. Otherwise the whole period is what the H5 says it should be...waves going to our NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 03:47 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:47 PM So far as I can tell, heights are a bit south of 6z...so far. Let's see where it's going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 03:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:47 PM Just now, stormtracker said: So far as I can tell, heights are a bit south of 6z...so far. Let's see where it's going. It's not gonna be good Randall. This time is better spent at a brunch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted Saturday at 03:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:48 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The only one that is too far south is that weak frontrunner wave that happens to come along during a very short window of opportunity when the boundary is far enough south as a transient arctic high slides by to our north between waves...had something actually come along during that 24 hour window we could have got snow...but its such a short window. Otherwise the whole period is what the H5 says it should be...waves going to our NW I thought the 6Z gave DC like 5 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Saturday at 03:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:48 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The only one that is too far south is that weak frontrunner wave that happens to come along during a very short window of opportunity when the boundary is far enough south as a transient arctic high slides by to our north between waves...had something actually come along during that 24 hour window we could have got snow...but its such a short window. Otherwise the whole period is what the H5 says it should be...waves going to our NW I don't think a front end snow from the 2nd wave is off the table, though...at least not for the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 03:50 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:50 PM 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: It's not gonna be good Randall. This time is better spent at a brunch Just can't know yet. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 03:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:50 PM 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That isn't helping if we want to get some snow from the lead wave thingy, but the bigger issue if we wanted to actually get a legit snowstorm from this whole setup is the energy consolidating too much with the second wave. I'm not even sure its accurate to call it that...its really just a bunch of weak waves along the boundary...and a few days ago models were keying on amplifying the whole thing sooner and not leaving any energy behind and that timed up the wave with our very short window of cold in an otherwise hostile period with the cold boundary to our NW. Now they are waiting and amplifying a day later and...well no bueno. The thing that confuses me in this whole mess isnt the result this is exactly what history says should happen, but why in gods name were all 4 ensembles (I saw the UK ensembles were nuts also) so damn sure out of all the possible variables and waves that it was going to amplify exactly the right time to hit us in such a short window we had for snow. That's just weird to me, because there are so many ways this could have gone...so many small tweeks that send it in another tangent...yet all the guidance was like NO WE ARE SURE ITS THIS EXACT WAY and it was the only way that lead to big snow here...and obvsiously they were all wrong...I'd love to dig into what that was about. Why they erroneously saw certainty in what I always saw as in inherently volatile unstable setup. I posted last night operationals are expected to be crappy regularly, but not the ensembles. It's an epic fail of all the ensembles like I've never seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 03:53 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:53 PM It's not terrible so far, just might not be as much as the 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 03:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:53 PM I expect the AI and Ukie to come in line today. Hard to believe they will score a coup. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 03:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:54 PM Just now, mitchnick said: I posted last night operationals are expected to be crappy regularly, but not the ensembles. It's an epic fail of all the ensembles like I've never seen. Of all the head fakes we've had the last several years, this was surely one of the worst. Ordinarily you'd expect model disagreement with a tenuous setup like this. But instead...all three seemingly got a concussion at the exact same time and just garbled out that solution. Sheesh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 03:55 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:55 PM Honestly, it might be the same or even a hair wetter for areas jsut to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:55 PM 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Just can't know yet. Seriously. I didn't look lol, was just thinking about brunch since my wife is at one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 03:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:56 PM Looks same as 6z. Mostly noise imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 03:58 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:58 PM I'm surprised...it;'s actually a slightly wetter, better mostly for folks just to our south. For us, looks like about the same with the 4 inch line pushing a tad further north than DC 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:58 PM Just now, stormtracker said: I'm surprised...it;'s actually a slightly wetter, better run.. Well that's good to hear 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:00 PM 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted Saturday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:00 PM 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks same as 6z. Mostly noise imho If this holds and it verifies just a little wetter/ more amped (and the surface temps stay cold enough for accumulation), it will be a warning level event for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:01 PM 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I didn't look lol, was just thinking about brunch since my wife is at one. This could still be decent for DC south, we should probably check out and let them have their fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 04:01 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 04:01 PM Just now, winter_warlock said: Well that's good to hear I mean, it's noticeably wetter for the EZF to RIC crew. Accumulation lines move just a tiny hair north. 4-6 line was just south of Bmore...now looks like BMore is in it...if my geography is right. Basically it's a little better hold is what I'm trying to say, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:01 PM Gfs ain't bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted Saturday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:01 PM 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks same as 6z. Mostly noise imho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:02 PM 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Not bad. Still gives me 5 to 6 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted Saturday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:02 PM 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks same as 6z. Mostly noise imho Not sure if this will happen this time, but I remember set ups like this ending up wetter/ picking up more gulf moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:02 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This could still be decent for DC south, we should probably check out and let them have their fun. Yeah, I don't like where this is going for the most part. The heights were worse this run looking at it now, but the GFS shield was a bit more expansive. I can see the GFS being the northern/juiciest outlier soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:03 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This could still be decent for DC south, we should probably check out and let them have their fun. I prefer to somehow ruin their day out of unadulterated spite. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:03 PM Just now, MDScienceTeacher said: Not sure if this will happen this time, but I remember set ups like this ending up wetter/ picking up more gulf moisture. Agreed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:04 PM Just now, mitchnick said: I prefer to somehow ruin their day out of unadulterated spite. Gotta love his honesty lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Saturday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:04 PM Just basing totally on snow map distribution (I know a terrible way). It’s very similar to the 0z euro which is just a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 04:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:05 PM What is wrong with you people....GFS may be wrong but it is great! Now back to chores until the EURO.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 04:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:05 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I prefer to somehow ruin their day out of unadulterated spite. No secret that its an IMBY sport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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