Interstate Posted Saturday at 01:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:43 PM 17 minutes ago, Scraff said: I know we won’t take it seriously (yet), but the 6z GFS had the monster Miller A PSU Storm at the end of its run. Here is the 24 hour 10:1 snowfall map 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 01:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:48 PM 6z AI qpf 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted Saturday at 02:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:05 PM Adding this to my folder of Great Snowmaps in History 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted Saturday at 02:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:09 PM 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Adding this to my folder of Great Snowmaps in History Biased a bit high because it counts sleet as snow? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Saturday at 02:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:10 PM 25 minutes ago, Interstate said: Here is the 24 hour 10:1 snowfall map I’m pretty sure if that plays out, I’ll be ready for spring after 3 days of shoveling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Saturday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:21 PM Adding this to my folder of Great Snowmaps in History 384 hour clown map maaaay belong in the long range thread haha 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:33 PM At 63hrs, 12z Nam is showing a raising of heights from the 6z run fwiw. Can't hurt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Saturday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:39 PM Well NAM is awful. Thankfully, it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:43 PM 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Well NAM is awful. Thankfully, it's the NAM. Its a different solution. Little space between the waves and a decent precip orientation at h84. Takes that first round south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Saturday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:47 PM 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Its a different solution. Little space between the waves and a decent precip orientation at h84. Takes that first round south this run. So do you think the second wave would be a "hit" per the NAM? Or is this the path to failure @psuhoffman mentioned yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:52 PM 13 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Well NAM is awful. Thankfully, it's the NAM. That second blob to our wsw is headed in our direction and temps remain favorable. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&rh=2025020812&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 03:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:01 PM 4 hours ago, Ji said: Wow one more tick like that and we back lol Yessir!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 03:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:01 PM Was nice seeing the 06z runs come north! 12z runs today will be huge!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Saturday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:06 PM 4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Was nice seeing the 06z runs come north! 12z runs today will be huge!!!! Let’s get them north AND juiced. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 03:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:09 PM 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Let’s get them north AND juiced. Amen brother!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 03:21 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:21 PM The ICON kicks off 12z with a resounding NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:24 PM 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The ICON kicks off 12z with a resounding NO Well. It's the icon so... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Saturday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:24 PM The ICON kicks off 12z with a resounding NO So we are going back south again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:24 PM Just now, winter_warlock said: Well. It's the icon so... lol Rgem a NO too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Saturday at 03:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:25 PM 6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The ICON kicks off 12z with a resounding NO No snow then rain for Thursday. Fail scenario coming into view now Edit : there is some ice to start for the 2nd wave but most of the Qpf is north of here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Saturday at 03:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:25 PM Just now, Ji said: So we are going back south again? It just looks like poop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 03:26 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:26 PM How reliable is rgem at nearly 96 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Saturday at 03:28 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:28 PM 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: How reliable is rgem at nearly 96 hours? I feel it’s jumpy at best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Saturday at 03:29 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:29 PM 4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Well. It's the icon so... lol We need to learn to go with the worst model instead of dogging it. They usually lead the way. I accept my weener emoji lol 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Saturday at 03:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:34 PM On to the Varsity suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 03:35 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:35 PM 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: On to the Varsity suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 03:36 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:36 PM I'll repeat what I posted yesterday. That storm moving off the SE coast Monday morning is pushing heights lower along the coast killing both northward progress and preventing a stronger overrunning flow. At least that's what I've been seeing on the fail models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 03:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:38 PM In reality the storm is going to our NW...a little front runner wave sneaks out ahead when there is still cold and might give snow to our southeast...but in the larger sense what happened is more energy held back and is amplifying a wave too much so that it goes to our NW...which is kinda exactly what this pattern says is the most likely outcome, unfortunately. It's why I had a hard time getting excited by those crazy snow means, it just didn't fit the longwave pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Saturday at 03:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:38 PM It's kind of impressive how the models are showing just about every way we can miss with every wave next week. Too far south, too weak, too north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 03:44 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:44 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I'll repeat what I posted yesterday. That storm moving off the SE coast Monday morning is pushing heights lower along the coast killing both northward progress and preventing a stronger overrunning flow. At least that's what I've been seeing on the fail models. That isn't helping if we want to get some snow from the lead wave thingy, but the bigger issue if we wanted to actually get a legit snowstorm from this whole setup is the energy consolidating too much with the second wave. I'm not even sure its accurate to call it that...its really just a bunch of weak waves along the boundary...and a few days ago models were keying on amplifying the whole thing sooner and not leaving any energy behind and that timed up the wave with our very short window of cold in an otherwise hostile period with the cold boundary to our NW. Now they are waiting and amplifying a day later and...well no bueno. The thing that confuses me in this whole mess isnt the result this is exactly what history says should happen, but why in gods name were all 4 ensembles (I saw the UK ensembles were nuts also) so damn sure out of all the possible variables and waves that it was going to amplify exactly the right time to hit us in such a short window we had for snow. That's just weird to me, because there are so many ways this could have gone...so many small tweeks that send it in another tangent...yet all the guidance was like NO WE ARE SURE ITS THIS EXACT WAY and it was the only way that lead to big snow here...and obvsiously they were all wrong...I'd love to dig into what that was about. Why they erroneously saw certainty in what I always saw as in inherently volatile unstable setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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