Mikeymac5306 Posted Friday at 09:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:16 PM 1 hour ago, H2O said: This place after every model run 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:18 PM 3 hours ago, T. August said: I hear you but the eps was a little too amped for a lot of people at 6z. Unfortunately there are places in here that are not in the same boat. If you are 50 miles south of DC you want a solution that is awful for me lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 09:25 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:25 PM 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Unfortunately there are places in here that are not in the same boat. If you are 50 miles south of DC you want a solution that is awful for me lol. Speaking of which....18z Icon. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Friday at 09:25 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:25 PM It only takes 3-4 inches to turn the area into a winter wonderland. I'm still optimistic. Still holding on to my conservative guess of 12" though. I'm a glutton for punishment. hehe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted Friday at 09:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:30 PM 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Speaking of which....18z Icon. Lol How’s that looking? I know I’m a 50 miles south of dc girl, but the last 3 days have been a wild ride down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Friday at 09:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:31 PM 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Speaking of which....18z Icon. Lol Fail scenario for Northern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:32 PM 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Speaking of which....18z Icon. Lol Alright that's one (albeit inferior) piece of guidance that's doing the ugly scenario a few of us suspected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 09:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:33 PM Just now, Demeter said: How’s that looking? I know I’m a 50 miles south of dc girl, but the last 3 days have been a wild ride down here. The Icon says you get around 4" before it's washed away, while I only get 2-2.5" before it gets washed away. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 09:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:35 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: The Icon says you get around 4" before it's washed away, while I only get 2-2.5" before it gets washed away. washed away with what? On Wednesday the temps are well below 32 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2025020718/icon_T2m_us_40.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Friday at 09:42 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:42 PM 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Fail scenario for Northern areas That models a fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:43 PM If you believe in seasonal trends, and I do, then one this year is mid range deamplification. Certainly been true for this weekends event. Probably linked to blocking verifying stronger at shorter lead times. For this event, I think we’re seeing that manifest as lower MECS potential, but also less mixing risk in metro areas. That deamp trend also hasn’t persisted until game time. This is also relevant for any follow on waves next week I think. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Friday at 09:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:47 PM 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: If you believe in seasonal trends, and I do, then one this year is mid range deamplification. Certainly been true for this weekends event. Probably linked to blocking verifying stronger at shorter lead times. For this event, I think we’re seeing that manifest as lower MECS potential, but also less mixing risk in metro areas. That deamp trend also hasn’t persisted until game time. This is also relevant for any follow on waves next week I think. I was thinking about this earlier. Good point! Unfortunately no modeling is safe even 12 hours from gametime. We can't be comfortable until there's 3 on the ground and moderate/heavy falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 09:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:52 PM 13 minutes ago, Ji said: washed away with what? On Wednesday the temps are well below 32 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2025020718/icon_T2m_us_40.png At 120 hrs there's little doubt in my mind that the warmth to the south will put us all above freezing based on these maps as the slp passes well west of us. BUT, I'm not saying (yet) the Icon is right, though the trend toward it is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Friday at 09:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:52 PM 20 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Fail scenario for Northern areas lol it’s a fail scenario for most people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 09:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:54 PM 1 minute ago, T. August said: lol it’s a fail scenario for most people. it's not that exciting but I'm hardly gonna turn my nose up at a 2-4"er 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Friday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:55 PM Note to self: compare ICON maps from 100 hours out to what actually happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Friday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:55 PM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: it's not that exciting but I'm hardly gonna turn my nose up at a 2-4"er I could be wrong but I feel like that 10:1 is generous lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:56 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:56 PM Ok, GFS time. No notable changes so far...coming up our relevant panels in probably five mins or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Friday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:56 PM Who has the mic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:56 PM Just now, T. August said: I could be wrong but I feel like that 10:1 is generous lol It looks about identical to the Kuchera - idk we'll see. 8:1... 10:1... still basically a 2-4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:57 PM 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: At 120 hrs there's little doubt in my mind that the warmth to the south will put us all above freezing based on these maps as the slp passes well west of us. BUT, I'm not saying (yet) the Icon is right, though the trend toward it is there. sorry yes agree---i thought you were just talking about the run through 120. Thats alot of snow and ice combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Friday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:57 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Ok, GFS time. No notable changes so far...coming up our relevant panels in probably five mins or so. I see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:58 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:58 PM Very early on, the angle of attack seems to be a tad souther...let's see if it propagates to our relevant period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:59 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:59 PM Definitely drier out west. Seems as though this run will cut back on precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 09:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:59 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Definitely drier out west. Seems as though this run will cut back on precip just a hair less north too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Dry af compared to 12z so far...seems like heaviest will slide south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:01 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Definitely drier out west. Seems as though this run will cut back on precip its not really dramatic. we will see i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:01 PM Just now, Ji said: its not really dramatic. we will see i guess you'd look at the general radar and think we'd get slammed but it's not climbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 10:02 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 10:02 PM Heh..a lil warmer too. Moderate to heavy looks south to RIC. They have the 850s. but not the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Friday at 10:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:03 PM Stinks this run. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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