stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:33 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:33 PM Just now, snowfan said: Not gonna lie….kinda creepy Kinda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:34 PM Ukie 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:34 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Per my maps, 0 line gets right over top of DC and freezing line is close. You sure no mixing issues? I was doing the thing where i guessed off the snow map - yeah, we might mix after 111 but it's basically over. Never lose the surface I don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:34 PM Ukie is a beatdown. 13” for DC. No mixing north of EZF. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:35 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:35 PM 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: Euro going the way I mentioned earlier, weaker lead wave, putting its eggs in the follow up it seems. This could benefit people farther S Looks like not much snow from that one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:35 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:35 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ukie I'm fine with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Friday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:35 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ukie Nice! The Ukie agrees with my conservative call. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Friday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:36 PM Ukie with the metros jackpot. Should pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:38 PM Storm 2 on Ukie adds to totals. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Friday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:38 PM CMC/Euro say 3-6” type storm GFS/Ukie say 8-12” type storm (both waves)Set my expectations at a 6” max accordingly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Friday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:38 PM 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie I have always loved the British. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:39 PM Just by looking at the SLP maps, I think models are converging into better agreement on the track. Which is out of the rockies west right through TN and then off the coast of Southern VA. It's the QPF/ptype maps that still aren't in agreement. Only until we get into the mesos, will we see better agreement on lifting, thermals, and QPF. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:40 PM I don’t like the 12z guidance. It trended towards a weaker lead wave across the board. That lead wave is the one we have the best chance. The boundary is lifting by the time the next one. We want a stronger lead and weaker follow and today trended the opposite way. This doesn’t mean no snow. But if we end up with a weaker lead stronger second wave we’re looking at a minor snow followed by a lot of rain. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Friday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:42 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t like the 12z guidance. It trended towards a weaker lead wave across the board. That lead wave is the one we have the best chance. The boundary is lifting by the time the next one. We want a stronger lead and weaker follow and today trended the opposite way. This doesn’t mean no snow. But if we end up with a weaker lead stronger second wave we’re looking at a minor snow followed by a lot of rain. Sounds about right for us. Like we expected it to be snowy anyway haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:44 PM 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t like the 12z guidance. It trended towards a weaker lead wave across the board. That lead wave is the one we have the best chance. The boundary is lifting by the time the next one. We want a stronger lead and weaker follow and today trended the opposite way. This doesn’t mean no snow. But if we end up with a weaker lead stronger second wave we’re looking at a minor snow followed by a lot of rain. Darn it. Well we'll just have to try and enjoy the 3-6" for what...24 hours? Ehhh...I'd never kick 3-6 outta bed except in that scenario because it's basically a prolonged thump to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:44 PM 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Just by looking at the SLP maps, I think models are converging into better agreement on the track. Which is out of the rockies west right through TN and then off the coast of Southern VA. It's the QPF/ptype maps that still aren't in agreement. Only until we get into the mesos, will we see better agreement on lifting, thermals, and QPF. 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t like the 12z guidance. It trended towards a weaker lead wave across the board. That lead wave is the one we have the best chance. The boundary is lifting by the time the next one. We want a stronger lead and weaker follow and today trended the opposite way. This doesn’t mean no snow. But if we end up with a weaker lead stronger second wave we’re looking at a minor snow followed by a lot of rain. There’s plenty of moisture available. Pretty small differences in shortwave amplitude are giving us large variations in potential snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Friday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:44 PM 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Just by looking at the SLP maps, I think models are converging into better agreement on the track. Which is out of the rockies west right through TN and then off the coast of Southern VA. It's the QPF/ptype maps that still aren't in agreement. Only until we get into the mesos, will we see better agreement on lifting, thermals, and QPF. Pretty good track for us IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:46 PM 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: There’s plenty of moisture available. Pretty small differences in shortwave amplitude are giving us large variations in potential snowfall. Oh sorry if it came off that I think it’s locked in. Just that I don’t like the way this set of runs went. It could flip 18z for all we know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted Friday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:47 PM I may have missed it but can someone post the Euro map please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Friday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:48 PM Just now, psuhoffman said: Oh sorry if it came off that I think it’s locked in. Just that I don’t like the way this set of runs went. It could flip 18z for all we know. Always seems the least likely failure option(s) becomes reality here most times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:48 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Oh sorry if it came off that I think it’s locked in. Just that I don’t like the way this set of runs went. It could flip 18z for all we know. It could...although seeing the euro go in the weaker direction is a bit of a flag, no? I'd imagine if it still looks weak by 12z tomorrow, then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 05:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:51 PM Just now, frd said: Always seems the least likely failure option(s) becomes reality here most times. It's never been "least likely". But in setup like this, there's some luck involved. In this case it's whatever is influencing the strength of the wave. Not that a higher snow total in this setup isn't realistic, ya just gotta get a bit lucky. Eh...always felt like we had better luck on the weekends anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Friday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:52 PM 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It could...although seeing the euro go in the weaker direction is a bit of a flag, no? I'd imagine if it still looks weak by 12z tomorrow, then... The models been meh this season anyway. Could see them show 6” for you 24hrs out and you end with 0” or whatever happened with that last storm when models had DC getting 4-6” the day before and ended with like nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:57 PM 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh sorry if it came off that I think it’s locked in. Just that I don’t like the way this set of runs went. It could flip 18z for all we know. No I got you. I think big variations in snow are coming down to relatively small variations in shortwave amplitude in this scenario because of what a good moisture feed is present. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted Friday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:59 PM 11 minutes ago, EB89 said: I may have missed it but can someone post the Euro map please? It's just one page back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Friday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:00 PM Just now, WesternFringe said: It's just one page back. Not 43 pages? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Friday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:01 PM Looks like not much snow from that oneCorrect, but what I’m saying is the weaker less amped lead wave benefits people farther S.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Friday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:02 PM I don’t like the 12z guidance. It trended towards a weaker lead wave across the board. That lead wave is the one we have the best chance. The boundary is lifting by the time the next one. We want a stronger lead and weaker follow and today trended the opposite way. This doesn’t mean no snow. But if we end up with a weaker lead stronger second wave we’re looking at a minor snow followed by a lot of rain. Yep, I had a feeling it was going to head this way after the 6z euro Ai run. Yesterday I was starting to feel potential high end SECS event now it’s looking like another 2-4”er . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Friday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:03 PM 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Darn it. Well we'll just have to try and enjoy the 3-6" for what...24 hours? Ehhh...I'd never kick 3-6 outta bed except in that scenario because it's basically a prolonged thump to rain. I mean how about 0 inches? Would that be better? Just sayin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:03 PM Great, thanks to Randy, every time I open this thread, I can only think of this due to the title 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts