psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Iow, this one ain't ours unless the Nams are correct. Probably not, but you're assuming there is no 50 miles north jump the last 24 hours as we've seen a couple times this season. Or that there isn't some surprise not surprise banding on the northern fringe that puts down 5" with barely and QPF as we've seen at times...then if we tack on 2-3" of snow/sleet from wave 2 suddenly we had a really nice event. And those things are not crazy impossible. But yes if I had to put money on it the most likely outcome is we get fringed with 2" from the first wave and 1" of slop from the second and its not a fun time for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I know I';m gonna be annoyed with the daytime stuff. Conn Ave is going to take forever to cave. And that puts me on tilt. Gotta get out of that concrete jungle and get into some forest. Come on out to Crownsville and do some hiking. Its usually pretty cold here. The trees should start looking nice. Ive also got some nice trees lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: 25-30 hours out and tools still spitting out 3-11”. it's not that bad i think the envelope is pretty small honestly but as always there is one model that is an outlier and there are also a group of pessimists who are leaning heavily on the outlier or working super hard to talk about sun angle and ground temps etc. It's annoying if i'm being honest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Presumably lwx goes WSW for Baltimore south and WWA for the northern counties later? Pretty borderline in most places… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, aldie 22 said: it's not that bad i think the envelope is pretty small honestly but as always there is one model that is an outlier and there are also a group of pessimists who are leaning heavily on the outlier or working super hard to talk about sun angle and ground temps etc. It's annoying if i'm being honest Even if we take out the most bullish outlier, it wouldn't change the forecast for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, weathercoins said: Presumably lwx goes WSW for Baltimore south and WWA for the northern counties later? Pretty borderline in most places… I would imagine they wait for the 12z Euro before upgrading anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Can only expect so much from a 1013 low that's headed out to sea. It is what it is... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2025021012&fh=42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I know we're too close to the event to worry about what the ensembles show, but the GEFS have definitely been trending weaker and more south over the past four runs. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I would imagine they wait for the 12z Euro before upgrading anything. I was expecting them to do it in the morning shift, but I guess afternoon is still technically ~24hr before. The models seem to be jumping around more now than ever (with the details anyways) - GEM has 3.5 for LoCo and SREFs have 5.6 (which are usually pretty conservative) - the big models have up to 8+, but I don't think that's counting the mixing/melting. I think LWX stays 4-6 with WSW, but it's probably going to be a bust for a lot of people who get all excited over the warning. Likewise this might throw the school systems for a loop when they see WSW in a few hours, followed by a semi-bustola during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Alright..Euro running. I'll update as soon as I can see the storm coming into our frame. Hopefully it'll be nothing notable...except a north jog! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, EstorilM said: I was expecting them to do it in the morning shift, but I guess afternoon is still technically ~24hr before. The models seem to be jumping around more now than ever (with the details anyways) - GEM has 3.5 for LoCo and SREFs have 5.6 (which are usually pretty conservative) - the big models have up to 8+, but I don't think that's counting the mixing/melting. I think LWX stays 4-6 with WSW, but it's probably going to be a bust for a lot of people who get all excited over the warning. Likewise this might throw the school systems for a loop when they see WSW in a few hours, followed by a semi-bustola during the event. This is pretty locked in. Not worth putting much weight on the SREFs or GEM output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 UKMet was a bit of a step back from 06z. Still a general 3-5 with less for Baltimore and NE Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Looking about the same so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Actually, seems like the south crew took a huge haircut. North, where you at with the pretty maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Looking about the same so far Maybe noise, but looks like precip shield is more robust northward 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 any changes are noise I think 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Actually, seems like the south crew took a huge haircut. North, where you at with the pretty maps Sold! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Sold! How does that compare with 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, stormtracker said: Am I looking at the right thing? Seems like everybody took a bit of a haircut on the accum map? Maybe it's the shitty SV maps or I'm just ditzy Looks like it removed all the double digit accums, and the rest is usual noise. It's a hold, I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Just now, Terpeast said: Looks like it removed all the double digit accums, and the rest is usual noise. It's a hold, I think Yeah, I was like maybe I'm trippin. It did trend drier down south tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Yeah, I'm trippin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks like it removed all the double digit accums, and the rest is usual noise. It's a hold, I think Euro wasn't showing any double digits that i can recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm trippin. I wish it was someone we all liked less that did the pbp’s lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro with the relative save for folks north of DC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro with the relative save for folks north of DC I’d take 3-4 to get us over 20” on the year. Then hope for a thump weds night 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 20”??? Sheeeeeiiiiiitttt!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Euro wasn't showing any double digits that i can recall Yeah, the shit SV maps made it look terrible...it had double digits at 6z..but only uses 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Definitely becoming more interested in the follow up...at least the start of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro says our money period is after 00z. Looks like 0.4 QPF for dc between 0z and 6z. Based on the surface maps I'd say the good part will be closer to 00z than 6z. Probably 7-11pm is the prime time, plan jeb walks accordingly. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just realized the EURO blasts temps into the mid 50's on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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