SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 What I like on the 3k NAM is that the orientation of the precipitation switched ever so slightly from more west --> east to southwest --> northeast. I am guessing that could mean slightly more amplification of the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3k soundings look nice for metro areas. Comes in hot and heavy. Ripping in the 5-8pm window. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: 4" - 8" regionwide and call it a day. M/D crew might sweat that call a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 This should be better for most than Jan 6th. 6-10” looks like a great storm coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z 3km NAM Kuchera I'll take that half a foot!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 54 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Where do I sign? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z 3km NAM Kuchera Sold! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, SLPressure said: On TT, there is the option to look at "positive snow depth change". What exactly does that mean? It shows 7 north to 8 south at 45h, yet 10-1 has 8 north to 12 south. Which is more accurate? This takes melting/ surface temperatures/ rates etc into consideration. A lot of people say that it is more useful than the regular total snowfall. I am convinced that Tt counts cold rain as snow for in total snowfall maps.. so positive snow depth is probably more reliable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 LWX playing it safe, same totals from F'burg to Winchester. I'd expect a pretty decent gradient between those locations, but then again southern locations will get more QPF w/ more melting also I suppose. I wonder if they'll throw out the WSW's for these areas for the ~1030AM forecast cycle or wait for the afternoon folks? I guess that's probably cutting it too close...ALSO LWX's doppler radar has been down for a couple days now (pedestal issues, so kinda a big deal) - they hope to get it fixed by this evening, but yikes, that'll be less than 24hr before precip onset in the area. It goes without saying that LWX's radar coverage is CRUCIAL for the entire NoVA / DC / Bmore area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 did no one post the final 12k map? amateur hour 5 3 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3K very sleety for batch 2 for all of NOVA. Prolonged sleet bomb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 So the NAM 3K is in its wheelhouse right? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: did no one post the final 12k map? amateur hour What does the p-type / ice output look like for the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, EstorilM said: What does the p-type / ice output look like for the event? There is sleet and FRZA but it's way south of most of us for round 1... round 2 is still tbd but there is sleet/ice around. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 20 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I think you’re confused like usual. Ha. We were talking about the 6z run not the 12z. Nice try though. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3k is basically better for everyone vs last few runs. Would be a big win if it verified. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: This should be better for most than Jan 6th. 6-10” looks like a great storm coming Thank you! I was getting annoyed with the all the over cautiousness/ conservatism wrt to the total potential for this storm. Everyone seems to be stuck on 3-6/ 2-4 amounts. I think that It won’t take much to push this over 8 inches. So why not go all in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, Scraff said: So the NAM 3K is in its wheelhouse right? If it was different from the globals in track, precip totals, etc. I’d probably still be a little skeptical at this point? But it’s not. I think it’s been steady and in line with the globals so I think it’s very much worth factoring into forecasts. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 21 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z 3km NAM Kuchera 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: My thoughts haven’t really changed too much. This storm is really looking like a 70-80% of what happened on 1/6. Similar thought of the max somewhere along and south of Rt50 with the best spot between Fredericksburg up to Annapolis and points in-between on the west side of the Bay. Higher elevations west of Fredericksburg will also see some significant accumulations that could very well be within the maxima. 3-6” is very likely (85+%), 5-8” is probably the median/mean outcomes, and the high side is 9-10” as the opportunity for >10” is unlikely considering the forward propagation speed along with marginal thermals in the beginning before improvement in the evening Tuesday through the overnight. A solid storm incoming which I’m sure will produce a few surprises. No changes to my thoughts from overnight. The 12z NAMNest looks pretty solid for many with the max located along and south of Rt50 with the heaviest likely in similar areas that hit 1/6. Another solid storm for the lowlands it seems. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: No changes to my thoughts from overnight. The 12z NAMNest looks pretty solid for many with the max located along and south of Rt50 with the heaviest likely in similar areas that hit 1/6. Another solid storm for the lowlands it seems. 3-6 seems kinda low for what models are spitting out. It's def not gonna be 11" like the NAM shows. But I defer to you, the scientist. I'm out of my depth here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Icon is north from 6z and 0z. Not sure it matters since it’s the icon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I know everyone is excited over the NAM (and we should be!) as it provides a good high range output, but the 12z HRRR I think provides a decent example of what a low end "bust" output would be for the region (and even then its not that bad). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, WxUSAF said: Icon is north from 6z and 0z. Not sure it matters since it’s the icon Tight precip gradient around DC. Best from Fredericksburg east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 RGEM touch drier this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: I know everyone is excited over the NAM (and we should be!) as it provides a good high range output, but the 12z HRRR I think provides a decent example of what a low end "bust" output would be for the region (and even then its not that bad). Hrrr gets temps up to upper 30s/near 40 tomorrow. Hope that’s wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I know everyone is excited over the NAM (and we should be!) as it provides a good high range output, but the 12z HRRR I think provides a decent example of what a low end "bust" output would be for the region (and even then its not that bad). This is setting up for a classic letdown when folks expect 6-8 sub-wide. 3-5 for most is the bar, I think, and we should be very happy with that if it verifies. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM touch drier this run. Ooof. Northern edge gradient is not kind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If it was different from the globals in track, precip totals, etc. I’d probably still be a little skeptical at this point? But it’s not. I think it’s been steady and in line with the globals so I think it’s very much worth factoring into forecasts. Good point for sure! So that said, what are your thoughts for the HoCo crew? I’ve been thinking 4-6 for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Well damn, SREF plume mean is actually 5.6" for IAD. P-type is a mess though, and WAY more rain than I expected for Loudoun, hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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