stormtracker Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: By a 70 year olds hair. A little more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1022 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2025 District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1022 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 6 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, northern, and southern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation begins as light snow Tuesday afternoon. A steady snow follows Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, and the snow could be heavy at times. Additional wintry precipitation could continue into Wednesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Can notice it especially 45-54 frames. Better orientation overall and some heavy qpf frames. It’s also colder for some despite that If that’s North it’s by a 1/4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, ravensrule said: Ones 10:1 the other is kuch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 With the snow from Pt. 2 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Meanwhile the gfs is a whole separate warning level snow weds night for the northern crew nw of fall line and n of DC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Ones 10:1 the other is kuch Ah, sorry my bad. I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, ravensrule said: Ah, sorry my bad. I apologize. It’s ok. You should know I’m not gonna make shit up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: It’s ok. You should know I’m not gonna make shit up lol I should have known i misread not you. Getting old is no fun. I would lock this up in a half a second. Beautiful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Ah, sorry my bad. I apologize. On a second note tho, you also add some on 78-81 frames check those out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, DDweatherman said: On a second note tho, you also add some on 78-81 frames check those out lol It’s a beautiful run with part 2. It would be my biggest storm since 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 If the euro holds on to the frozen precip for part two, warnings will be extended to M/D line. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Need to check soundings for part 2 to look into thermal profiles. NAM and GFS both just turned a lot of people to SN/SN+ with part 2 after it initially moved back in. May be rate dependent stuff but taking a look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 49 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Lop 1/3 off the NAM precip, apply a 10:1 and you put it right in the 5-7” range that the other models have been projecting. That’s our target for DC. This is usually what I do as well at this range. Interestingly enough, the NAMNest is basically doing that all by itself and looks very reasonable. Might be getting close to locking down a result here. Goal posts narrowing. I’m getting a little more interested in part 2 as well. Could be sneaky to add a little more snow before any flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Need to check soundings for part 2 to look into thermal profiles. NAM and GFS both just turned a lot of people to SN/SN+ with part 2 after it initially moved back in. May be rate dependent stuff but taking a look I get more snow from part 2 than part 1 lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Looks like 4-5” here Tuesday night and another 2-4” on Wednesday night. That works for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Soundings on the gfs back up the snow for some of us with part 2. Nearly isothermal at the tail end, but the entire column is below freezing with temps 30-32 NW to SE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 So for Baltimore (city)...what's the best guess for both parts of the systems? (real answers please, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS ENS agree with OP. ROA-CHO jack. @clskinsfan7.1” up you’re way. Feel like that’ll make you beyond happy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The GFS seems determined last several runs to put the heaviest stripe from Lewisburg WV to Richmond (64 storm), NEVER a fan of being in bullseye until the last minute...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthHokie Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 27 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: The GFS seems determined last several runs to put the heaviest stripe from Lewisburg WV to Richmond (64 storm), NEVER a fan of being in bullseye until the last minute...... well you shouldn't like its the only model putting those numbers that far south too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 EURO looks a hair norther and wetter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO looks a hair norther and wetter Please talk dirty to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO looks a hair norther and wetter 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Nothing productive from Wave 2 - the axis of the very heaviest stuff was in the same spot or a little south but it’s better for the NMD folks. Goodnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Nothing productive from Wave 2 - the axis of the very heaviest stuff was in the same spot or a little south but it’s better for the NMD folks. Goodnight! You don’t care about us enough to post a map @NorthArlington101? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 My thoughts haven’t really changed too much. This storm is really looking like a 70-80% of what happened on 1/6. Similar thought of the max somewhere along and south of Rt50 with the best spot between Fredericksburg up to Annapolis and points in-between on the west side of the Bay. Higher elevations west of Fredericksburg will also see some significant accumulations that could very well be within the maxima. 3-6” is very likely (85+%), 5-8” is probably the median/mean outcomes, and the high side is 9-10” as the opportunity for >10” is unlikely considering the forward propagation speed along with marginal thermals in the beginning before improvement in the evening Tuesday through the overnight. A solid storm incoming which I’m sure will produce a few surprises. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 as usual the Euro is the driest model(and probably most correct) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Crappy map GFS... Animated... https://kaosfactory.github.io/wxblox/fmap.html?lat=pasadena,md,us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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