blizzardmeiser Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: North trend hasn't happened in years, it feels like...at least not since 2019. Last month there was one modeled but that banding materialized way north, smh I guess I ought just set my expectation at 3-5"? Enjoy what you get, rain on Thu could wash it away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Sunday at 05:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:51 PM There is no blocking ? If it wasn’t for blocking this would mostly rain Isn’t that hour 96, not now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:00 PM The tickiest tick south from 06z. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Sunday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:05 PM The tickiest tick south from 06z. 4-6” for many, possibility of 7-8 south of DC. Sign me up 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Sunday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:06 PM 13 minutes ago, jayyy said: Isn’t that hour 96, not now? There will be blocking in place when the storm arrives Tuesday. The low that went North of us yesterday will become the 50/50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM 1 minute ago, TSG said: There will be blocking in place when the storm arrives Tuesday. The low that went North of us yesterday will become the 50/50 Indeed. Even so...seeing as it's just getting established perhaps it won't be as strong as it was that day, and things tick north some. Orrrr I could be just wish casting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Sunday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:11 PM Trust me, I hope we do get that north Trend. Another 50 miles would be great. I've noticed the last few years you can't just count on them like we used to. Not sure if it's models being more accurate but it's not as pronounced as it once was. I think for this year there's been a trend in the medium to short range to deamp systems which is probably some of it.Definitely agree on the deamp trend as we get closer to storms. Also, on the “north trend” subject, I suppose it’s been more about banding setting up further north than the actual storm itself. Think many of us look at the bottom line - aka snow accumulation maps - and hope for a “north bump” but in reality, the storm can track exactly as depicted while having the banding placement slightly wrong. The 1/6 and other January storm both had this happen. Models nailed the track generally but C MD got kinda screwed because banding setup further north near the M/D line. EPS brings the coveted purples to just south of the Baltimore - Columbia latitude. Wouldn’t necessarily take a northern trend with the system itself to get those 6-7” totals up that way 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DraydenWX Posted Sunday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:16 PM 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Some snow weenie in NE MD did something very very bad. One of y’all needs to fess up so they can make whatever sacrifice is necessary. My guess is TowsonWeather. He just comes on here to yell at people on the RIC form. It’s time for you to take him behind the woodshed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted Sunday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:30 PM so which model is more accurate 36-48 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted Sunday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:31 PM Not which model you guys are hugging that gives you the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Sunday at 06:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:41 PM 10 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: so which model is more accurate 36-48 hours out? Probably rgem/srefs combo 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Sunday at 06:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:45 PM 12 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Not which model you guys are hugging that gives you the most snow NOGAPS. Tried and true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted Sunday at 06:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:45 PM 4 minutes ago, T. August said: Probably rgem/srefs combo Clearly ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Sunday at 06:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:46 PM 33 minutes ago, jayyy said: Definitely agree on the deamp trend as we get closer to storms. Also, on the “north trend” subject, I suppose it’s been more about banding setting up further north than the actual storm itself. Think many of us look at the bottom line - aka snow accumulation maps - and hope for a “north bump” but in reality, the storm can track exactly as depicted while having the banding placement slightly wrong. The 1/6 and other January storm both had this happen. Models nailed the track generally but C MD got kinda screwed because banding setup further north near the M/D line. EPS brings the coveted purples to just south of the Baltimore - Columbia latitude. Wouldn’t necessarily take a northern trend with the system itself to get those 6-7” totals up that way If I remember correctly didn't banding set up much further north into PA and there was kind of a screw zone between the heavy stuff around DC and points south and the banding? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted Sunday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:48 PM LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted Sunday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:49 PM Typical nova clowns lol You guys deserve to get screwed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:50 PM 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: If I remember correctly didn't banding set up much further north into PA and there was kind of a screw zone between the heavy stuff around DC and points south and the banding? Greatly disjointed areas of frontogenesis in that one. H7 shot way north over N & C PA vs southern and the h85 closer to the low was down over DC/NoVA. I don’t expect them to be that separated in a system like this, where the surface low/any associated coastal isn’t a big factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Sunday at 06:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:51 PM 1 minute ago, jlewis1111 said: Typical nova clowns lol You guys deserve to get screwed Bro delete this. You’re gonna get torched lmfao 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:52 PM 2 hours ago, Buddy1987 said: Any met or long time lurker ( @clskinsfan @nj2va @CAPE) want to give me their best shot as to what they think shakes down this way in SW VA? We are so close on the line down here between a heavy snow or heavy ice scenario I’m having a hard time. How out on an island do you think GFS is compared to other guidance? Tough call for your area. My wag is a thump followed by a nasty ice storm down there. I hope you get a couple inches of snow up front before the ice. Will make cleanup much easier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Sunday at 06:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:54 PM 4 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Typical nova clowns lol You guys deserve to get screwed GFS says you get 15 inches. Ride that wave until it crashes. I like your chances. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:55 PM 3 minutes ago, T. August said: Bro delete this. You’re gonna get torched lmfao Just put him on ignore man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted Sunday at 07:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:00 PM 8 minutes ago, T. August said: Bro delete this. You’re gonna get torched lmfao Dont care you guys hate ric people lol So Il troll some just like all you guys do at times lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted Sunday at 07:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:00 PM 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: GFS says you get 15 inches. Ride that wave until it crashes. I like your chances. Bro ric is not getting 15 inches.. We are lucky if we get 2 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:03 PM 2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Bro ric is not getting 15 inches.. We are lucky if we get 2 lol I hear you going with the reverse psychology angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted Sunday at 07:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:07 PM 3 hours ago, wxmvpete said: We've seen some subtle north trends over the past 12-24 hours. Using Tomer Burg's site, we can see the 700mb heights have ever so slightly increase over the past 5 runs over the Mid-Atlantic. This could be a combination of the primary system being a little slower, the northern confluence exiting a smidge faster, the increased latent heat release in the south aiding in slightly higher heights, or frankly all of the above. I'm a sucker for Q-vectors (always have been) and Tomer's site does show Q-Vectors converging better over the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, implying better mid-level convergence over the region that aligns favorably beneath the divergent right-entrance region of a roaring 175 knot 300mb jet streak over New England. Not to mention a healthy IVT that supplies plenty of moisture to work with. The mesoscale processes involved do show a good consolidated area of 850-700mb FGEN, but be cognizant of where the 700mb FGEN aligns. We've seen at least one instance where the 700mb FGEN has led to a stronger northern band of snow (thinking of an event over north-central PA a month ago or so). Regardless, the synoptic-scale look is one that can favor some hefty snowfall rates Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, but this is still be TBD over the next 24-36 hours as guidance starts to key in more on those mesoscale factors. WPC's Winter Storm outlook shows mostly 30-50% probs for snowfall amounts exceeding warning criteria for effectively all of northern VA and a good chunk of MD along and south of I-70 for the time being. >50% probs are farther south. The latest 18Z WSO (probabilities of exceeding warning criteria) expanded noticeably to the north. This is likely taking into account the more recent CAMs and northern extent of some of the ensembles. We've seen those southern tracks still in place but that's a notable increase across northern VA on east into the eastern DC/Baltimore metros. I also added the WSO probabilities for Freezing Rain for southwest VA. A strong signal for significant icing in those parts. 15 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted Sunday at 07:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:14 PM 19 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Dont care you guys hate ric people lol So Il troll some just like all you guys do at times lol Awwwww yeaaaahh!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Sunday at 07:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:16 PM 10 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Bro ric is not getting 15 inches.. We are lucky if we get 2 lol After seeing wxmvpete post…agree with you. One of the best features of this forum is getting insight few ever see. All snow is good and you’ll get some too. Cheers to that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Sunday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:19 PM RLX just issued WSWs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 07:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:23 PM 15 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: The latest 18Z WSO (probabilities of exceeding warning criteria) expanded noticeably to the north. This is likely taking into account the more recent CAMs and northern extent of some of the ensembles. We've seen those southern tracks still in place but that's a notable increase across northern VA on east into the eastern DC/Baltimore metros. I also added the WSO probabilities for Freezing Rain for southwest VA. A strong signal for significant icing in those parts. Man that certainly is encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 07:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:24 PM @mitchnick wheres the 12z AI update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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