Ralph Wiggum Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Nope, Ralph is off on this one. UK is definitely a nod to the GFS. Moved the max to the south of 0z. I was looking more at the expanse of precip not really the jack stripe. Apologies for the confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Does the last minute north trend still exist? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Does the existing snow pack impact the 2m temps? Always wondered that. I don't have all the details but yes it does. Not sure how it determines melting rates, radiation effectiveness, or anything like that. Existing snowcover is a data input at simulation start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Does the north trend still exist? Cue the windshield wiper GIF, if there’s a true NW trend it usually materializes in the last 36-48 hours. Look at yesterdays event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted Sunday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:55 PM 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Cue the windshield wiper GIF, if there’s a true NW trend it usually materializes in the last 36-48 hours. Look at yesterdays event we basically what now 36 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Sunday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:55 PM 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Cue the windshield wiper GIF, if there’s a true NW trend it usually materializes in the last 36-48 hours. Look at yesterdays event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM Some snow weenie in NE MD did something very very bad. One of y’all needs to fess up so they can make whatever sacrifice is necessary. 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Cue the windshield wiper GIF, if there’s a true NW trend it usually materializes in the last 36-48 hours. Look at yesterdays event Agreed. The s/w for Tue-Wed is still off the CA and Baja coast. It will enter the conus tonight or early tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM Just now, psuhoffman said: Some snow weenie in NE MD did something very very bad. One of y’all needs to fess up so they can make whatever sacrifice is necessary. It is genuinely hilarious at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Does the last minute north trend still exist? Yes but only when you’re in the jack 48 hours out and it screws you. 1 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM Just now, deer said: This was not off the 12z runs though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM 21 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: Last five runs of the GEFS for 24-hr snowfall probabilities >4". Shows the current 12Z GFS snowfall footprint is south of the ensembles while also being south of the rest of guidance with snow in south-central VA. Still likes northern VA most. Note however with the warm nose aloft closer to the central VA and a pretty narrow DGZ, I think those areas on the southern periphery (including along and south of I-66) may be hard pressed to have SLRs of 10:1 for the peak of the event. It's why snowfall is less on the Kuchera compared to the straight 10:1 SLR maps. Good observation, Pete! One of the reasons I like the Rt50 corridor at this juncture as the 85H FGEN alignment looks decent for areas along and south of the Rt50 latitude. Further north could very well achieve the closer 10:1 ratio, so they have the benefit of having both variables achieve success. I think this event is like a 60-80% version of 1/6 along and south of I-70. The main difference is a little more WSW-ENE alignment to the primary QPF field, so areas downstream of Rt15 might be a little better within the moisture advection pattern. Nothing crazy, but definitely a little better than the straight east-west orientation from the previous event. Thanks for keeping everyone abreast on the adjustments and analysis. I’ll be back on Tuesday to man the fort in Ops 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Just now, jlewis1111 said: This was not off the 12z runs though My understanding is the NWS totals are largely influenced by the "NWS Blend", which plays catchup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some snow weenie in NE MD did something very very bad. One of y’all needs to fess up so they can make whatever sacrifice is necessary. https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExc3JyN2hybXlnMjNrZWcwenV3amtocXJhMmdtajlqaGZpMndpbHY1YyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/l1IBiEzytfXFtkPVm/giphy.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Sunday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:08 PM 10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: It is genuinely hilarious at this point When you’re feeling bad about your backyard, just remind yourself you don’t live in NE MD who’ve had it much much worse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted Sunday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:09 PM 9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: It is genuinely hilarious at this point I literally lold at the perfect N/NE MD screwzone notch on the ukmet a page back. A familiar sight. I am 'Zen' at this point, truly, no lie. Just taking as it comes (or doesn't). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted Sunday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:09 PM 31 minutes ago, BristowWx said: North of the spotsy line it’s supposed snow…not sure what happens south of there…palm trees grow I guess .No but they do have do pump in the sunshine…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Sunday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:09 PM 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some snow weenie in NE MD did something very very bad. One of y’all needs to fess up so they can make whatever sacrifice is necessary. dear lord 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM 5 minutes ago, mappy said: When you’re feeling bad about your backyard, just remind yourself you don’t live in NE MD who’ve had it much much worse. Soo trueee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted Sunday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:18 PM I'm a bit puzzled. Can someone please explain to me how NWS says DCA gets over 4" of snow when the temperature is scheduled to be above freezing at that spot for the entire event? Is this event "decorator snow" versus ground depth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted Sunday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:18 PM 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some snow weenie in NE MD did something very very bad. One of y’all needs to fess up so they can make whatever sacrifice is necessary. I am dead inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Sunday at 05:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:20 PM 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some snow weenie in NE MD did something very very bad. One of y’all needs to fess up so they can make whatever sacrifice is necessary. Pathetic shit show. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted Sunday at 05:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:20 PM 1 minute ago, arlwx12 said: I'm a bit puzzled. Can someone please explain to me how NWS says DCA gets over 4" of snow when the temperature is scheduled to be above freezing at that spot for the entire event? Is this event "decorator snow" versus ground depth? Keep in mind snow isn’t measured on pavement. It’s measured on snow boards and if not then grass. DCA can get 4” of snow from this with temps around 32 which is what models are generally projecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 05:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:21 PM Got some initial concerns with this EURO run at hr50 - but gonna let it play. Just looks weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Seems to be a bit south with accums. Might be coming in line with the GFS...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Light snow starting at DCA around 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Seems to be a bit south with accums. Might be coming in line with the GFS...we'll see it's a yikes thru 60 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: maybe a tiny bit south but really just wholly unimpressive northern shield its a good 50-100 milse south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 05:25 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:25 PM Hold on..something dif is happening at hour 69...juice from the south trying to come up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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