wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: They try to - but not sure the GFS succeeds. I have no ill-will toward the RIC folks but the fact that the EURO shows nothing like that has to raise substantial flags. It does -so my call for here in RVA is 3-5"-I think it's similar to concerns for you guys up there that you get fringed and northern areas for you get next to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 GGEM looks quite nice to my eye. I like the slightly slower shift on 12z guidance. Not much precip for MBY before sunset. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Let’s wait and see what the UK and Euro have to say before we panic over the worst of the global being south. Ric could win for sure but it’s not very climatological favored. Plus would be a shame that is below the “it’s supposed to snow” line. People they live there don’t deserve snow because any true snow weenie would never abide living somewhere that goes years without a snow and averages what I get in a few hours on a good day. So where is that “it’s supposed to snow” line? Somewhere near Fredericksburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Your local Mets will make sure it’s not fun by posting the 1-2 inch line with some 3 inches north of the airport to around Ashland and Ladysmith. Until we’re at 0 hour. Hopefully you are north Richmond. Surprisingly they started calling yesterday 3-6/4-7 (7 line through ashland). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Yeah, now we're starting to see like a 2 parter from Tuesday to Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: They try to - but not sure the GFS succeeds. I have no ill-will toward the RIC folks but the fact that the EURO shows nothing like that has to raise substantial flags. GFS is the most south among guidance, and even ticked a bit more souther at 12z. Its doing typical GFS things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS is the most south among guidance, and even ticked a bit more souther at 12z. Its doing typical GFS things. Would not be surprised to have the GFS trend North next 24 to 48 hours. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The ice threat Wednesday afternoon/evening is starting to look a little scary west of Rt15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, frd said: Would not be surprised to have the GFS trend North next 24 to 48 hours. Of course backyard favoritism 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, TSG said: The ice threat Wednesday afternoon/evening is starting to look a little scary west of Rt15 Yeah I'm wondering if that later Wednesday and Wednesday night period might turn out more...interesting...in time. The other day it appeared that we'd get a decent thump of snow Tuesday into maybe early Wednesday with the first wave, and then rain after. Now...??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Last five runs of the GEFS for 24-hr snowfall probabilities >4". Shows the current 12Z GFS snowfall footprint is south of the ensembles while also being south of the rest of guidance with snow in south-central VA. Still likes northern VA most. Note however with the warm nose aloft closer to the central VA and a pretty narrow DGZ, I think those areas on the southern periphery (including along and south of I-66) may be hard pressed to have SLRs of 10:1 for the peak of the event. It's why snowfall is less on the Kuchera compared to the straight 10:1 SLR maps. 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, Fozz said: So where is that “it’s supposed to snow” line? Somewhere near Fredericksburg? North of the spotsy line it’s supposed snow…not sure what happens south of there…palm trees grow I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6z UKMET at h66 looked solid, trying to post but can’t get the file small enough here on mobile lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 My thoughts (and they mean nothing as they are guesses) Tuesday into Wednesday comes a bit north on precip amounts. Thursday ends up a rainier system than mixing out this way. Think the GFS is a bit cold. I would take what it shows and be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Of course backyard favoritism Exactly-could that happen? Of course-but GFS hasn't shown that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 GFS and CMC are very similar in having no stop in precip out this way between waves. Snow to sleet to freezing drizzle and then dry slot. Ends up being 36 hour of frozen precip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Yeah I'm wondering if that later Wednesday and Wednesday night period might turn out more...interesting...in time. The other day it appeared that we'd get a decent thump of snow Tuesday into maybe early Wednesday with the first wave, and then rain after. Now...??? The big change I'm seeing is precip never really shuts off for much of the area Wednesday afternoon before the next batch makes it's way in from the "Thursday storm". The spacing there seems much tighter on the GFS compared to 24hrs ago. That'll help the CAD hang on longer and would def increase ice totals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Ukmet looks better than the GFS for the Northern Crew. (Not that it's a shock) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, TSG said: The big change I'm seeing is precip never really shuts off for much of the area Wednesday before the next batch makes it's way in from the "Thursday storm". The spacing there seems much tighter on the GFS compared to 24hrs ago. That'll help the CAD hang on longer and would def increase ice totals. Does the existing snow pack impact the 2m temps? Always wondered that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Any met or long time lurker ( @clskinsfan @nj2va @CAPE) want to give me their best shot as to what they think shakes down this way in SW VA? We are so close on the line down here between a heavy snow or heavy ice scenario I’m having a hard time. How out on an island do you think GFS is compared to other guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 21 minutes ago, Fozz said: So where is that “it’s supposed to snow” line? Somewhere near Fredericksburg? I dunno i was just trolling. We could debate that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ukmet looks better than the GFS for the Northern Crew. (Not that it's a shock) I was gonna say it’s kinda GFS-like, but maybe you are further in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I was gonna say it’s kinda GFS-like, but maybe you are further in the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I was gonna say it’s kinda GFS-like, but maybe you are further in the run. Nope, Ralph is off on this one. UK is definitely a nod to the GFS. Moved the max to the south of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looks about the same or a little less then gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 No one has any clue what the Euro is gonna do here in a few. My bet is it’ll be a bit wetter than 6z and a touch south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Nope, Ralph is off on this one. UK is definitely a nod to the GFS. Moved the max to the south of 0z. I was looking more at the expanse of precip not really the jack stripe. Apologies for the confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Does the last minute north trend still exist? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Does the existing snow pack impact the 2m temps? Always wondered that. I don't have all the details but yes it does. Not sure how it determines melting rates, radiation effectiveness, or anything like that. Existing snowcover is a data input at simulation start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Does the north trend still exist? Cue the windshield wiper GIF, if there’s a true NW trend it usually materializes in the last 36-48 hours. Look at yesterdays event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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