psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Weirdly splotchy precip distribution, but a general 3-6". It has a disconnect with that fgen band to our SE. also that band is rain v snow on the gem. But I think that disconnect helps places north of DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know why you posted this...it has that double jack look you like to talk about...sneaky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It has a disconnect with that fgen band to our SE. also that band is rain v snow on the gem. But I think that disconnect helps places north of DC. Big difference between the NAM and RGEM is that the NAM has a break in precip on Wednesday while the RGEM's transition is blurrier. Unfortunately on the RGEM that means rain by Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 35 minutes ago, CAPE said: Dang how long has it been now...10 years? And even now I still wanna know why he felt the need to do this, lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 WB 12Z RDPS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Much more elevation dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 WB SREF mean was N. at 9Z. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I'm gonna go with my take 70% of what the NAM gives me rule. Can live with three, bar for satisfaction is four, happy with six, eight would be a dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 WB SREF mean was N. at 9Z.Now we’re talkin 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, 87storms said: Now we’re talkin Poor VA lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Richmond was never getting 15” guys. North trends are here 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 OK, GFS running. Let's hope this all comes together today 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, deer said: Seems very conservative lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: OK, GFS running. Let's hope this all comes together today Yessir!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 We've seen some subtle north trends over the past 12-24 hours. Using Tomer Burg's site, we can see the 700mb heights have ever so slightly increase over the past 5 runs over the Mid-Atlantic. This could be a combination of the primary system being a little slower, the northern confluence exiting a smidge faster, the increased latent heat release in the south aiding in slightly higher heights, or frankly all of the above. I'm a sucker for Q-vectors (always have been) and Tomer's site does show Q-Vectors converging better over the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, implying better mid-level convergence over the region that aligns favorably beneath the divergent right-entrance region of a roaring 175 knot 300mb jet streak over New England. Not to mention a healthy IVT that supplies plenty of moisture to work with. The mesoscale processes involved do show a good consolidated area of 850-700mb FGEN, but be cognizant of where the 700mb FGEN aligns. We've seen at least one instance where the 700mb FGEN has led to a stronger northern band of snow (thinking of an event over north-central PA a month ago or so). Regardless, the synoptic-scale look is one that can favor some hefty snowfall rates Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, but this is still be TBD over the next 24-36 hours as guidance starts to key in more on those mesoscale factors. WPC's Winter Storm outlook shows mostly 30-50% probs for snowfall amounts exceeding warning criteria for effectively all of northern VA and a good chunk of MD along and south of I-70 for the time being. >50% probs are farther south. 20 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Seems very conservative lol The uncertainties about temperatures and rates do knock this down - they are predicting what sticks. Big items on my list today are seeing if the can get temps down and/or get the heaviest after dark. Don’t want to burn the best stuff before 6pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Seems very conservative lol Maybe a little. But I'd argue that it's pretty realistic. The NWS understands how to interpret models/maps with comically inflated totals. Their forecast isn't based verbatim on snow maps that don't reflect reality on the ground. There's a reason you see professional mets in this thread suggesting that 3-5 is a reasonable region-wide forecast, at least as of right now. Here's hoping we continue to see a juiced-up trend, however - we'd all be onboard with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: We've seen some subtle north trends over the past 12-24 hours. Using Tomer Burg's site, we can see the 700mb heights have ever so slightly increase over the past 5 runs over the Mid-Atlantic. This could be a combination of the primary system being a little slower, the northern confluence exiting a smidge faster, the increased latent heat release in the south aiding in slightly higher heights, or frankly all of the above. I'm a sucker for Q-vectors (always have been) and Tomer's site does show Q-Vectors converging better over the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, implying better mid-level convergence over the region that aligns favorably beneath the divergent right-entrance region of a roaring 175 knot 300mb jet streak over New England. Not to mention a healthy IVT that supplies plenty of moisture to work with. The mesoscale processes involved do show a good consolidated area of 850-700mb FGEN, but be cognizant of where the 700mb FGEN aligns. We've seen at least one instance where the 700mb FGEN has led to a stronger northern band of snow (thinking of an event over north-central PA a month ago or so). Regardless, the synoptic-scale look is one that can favor some hefty snowfall rates Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, but this is still be TBD over the next 24-36 hours as guidance starts to key in more on those mesoscale factors. WPC's Winter Storm outlook shows mostly 30-50% probs for snowfall amounts exceeding warning criteria for effectively all of northern VA and a good chunk of MD along and south of I-70 for the time being. >50% probs are farther south. Very nice read !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The uncertainties about temperatures and rates do knock this down - they are predicting what sticks. Big items on my list today are seeing if the can get temps down and/or get the heaviest after dark. Don’t want to burn the best stuff before 6pm. GFS slower through 51, not bothering me yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS slower through 51, not bothering me yet Don’t think it’s gonna be as good, though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Doesn't seem much different with precip shield. Just expansion and contraction of some of the QPF borders I think it looks fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Don’t think it’s gonna be as good, though Seems a smidge further south but not colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, stormtracker said: Doesn't seem much different with precip shield. Just expansion and contraction of some of the QPF borders I think it looks fine I really doubt that 12+" falls in Richmond and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 It's lkely not going to be as wet as 6z..but it's not terrible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's lkely not going to be as wet as 6z..but it's not terrible It’s a jog south IMO - storm still has the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Almost 16” in Rich 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It’s a jog south IMO - storm still has the moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Nice little RIC jackpot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It’s a jog south IMO - storm still has the moisture. Agree on this, the QDF field just doesn't have the same northward extent but its jackpot zones stay around the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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