CAPE Posted Sunday at 11:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:32 AM Just now, Ji said: Euro very similar but took a overall qpf step back Yeah it's drier. Something like 4-8 is probably more reasonable than the huge totals some runs have been spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Sunday at 11:35 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:35 AM We were eyeing the endgame just 24 hours ago. 4-8” is a win in my book. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Sunday at 11:35 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:35 AM Yeah it's drier. Something like 4-8 is probably more reasonable than the huge totals some runs have been spitting out.Also temps at 31-32 with only moderate snow falling during day could also limit amounts. For this storm we just need as much moisture as possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted Sunday at 11:58 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:58 AM 27 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro very similar but took a overall qpf step back Clown maps or it didn’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Sunday at 12:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:07 PM Man.. if the GFS freezing rain map verifies we may not have power for a long time. Congrats to 64 north. Looks like this one moved too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted Sunday at 12:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:18 PM 46 minutes ago, Ji said: Oh yea we back Wrong thread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 12:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:20 PM 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Sunday at 12:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:24 PM 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Gorgeous, now lets have this hold and juice up today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Sunday at 12:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:28 PM This should be a beautiful snow. Light winds and temps around 30-32 should have the trees looking beautiful. Roads won't be bad during the day but it will be beautiful hopefully. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 12:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:47 PM I guess the 6z nam was in line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted Sunday at 12:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:51 PM Still snowing (barely) DC north at end of 6z NAM run (with ice south to EZF/CHO). Quite a bit of precip still to come through. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:54 PM Heading into Tuesday, we have a favorable setup for a long duration of snow across the area. With a broad upper trough over the CONUS and a CAD wedge over the area with surface high pressure to our northeast, we`ll have a cold thermal profile in place and Gulf moisture streaming in aloft from the SW Tuesday and through midweek. Confidence is increasing for an enhanced winter storm threat for the entire area. Precip is expected to begin in our southwest late Monday night into Tuesday morning and overspread the area SW to NE through Tuesday and continue into Wednesday. Precip type is expected to be snow for most of the area, with some sleet/freezing rain possibly mixing in along our southern tier where warmer air aloft will intrude in. High temperatures top out in the mid 30s. Current expected snow total is a widespread 3-5 inches between Monday night and Tuesday night, with locally higher amounts to around 6 inches possible. The entire event isn`t captured fully by the next 72 hours, so check weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest as we grow closer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Sunday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:54 PM Pretty good model agreement now on start time, duration, and QPF. Having a lot of it fall overnight Tuesday will be good, Wednesday morning will be really nice to wake up to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Sunday at 12:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:57 PM Nice to see models come north a little. Hopefully that helps my northern friends from being told to cry more today 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 01:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:01 PM Not Debbing, but I’m getting a “white rain until after dark” vibe for the metro areas on Tuesday. Like DCA has a “surprise” high of 42 or something before it starts wet-bulbing. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Sunday at 01:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:04 PM 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Not Debbing, but I’m getting a “white rain until after dark” vibe for the metro areas on Tuesday. Like DCA has a “surprise” high of 42 or something before it starts wet-bulbing. Moco will probably close Tuesday AND Wednesday AND a delay Thursday. This is a situation where probably cancelling after school activities Tuesday and a day off Wednesday would be sufficient but we all know how they do around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:07 PM 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not Debbing, but I’m getting a “white rain until after dark” vibe for the metro areas on Tuesday. Like DCA has a “surprise” high of 42 or something before it starts wet-bulbing. Kinda sounds like debbing lol 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 01:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:08 PM 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Moco will probably close Tuesday AND Wednesday AND a delay Thursday. This is a situation where probably cancelling after school activities Tuesday and a day off Wednesday would be sufficient but we all know how they do around here. I’d probably lean toward an unnecessary early dismissal Tuesday vs closing right now, but we’ll see how the start time gets refined. But no way there’s any road accumulation before dark the way things look now. This doesn’t look like a “WAA thump” heavy snow from the start type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 01:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:08 PM 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: Kinda sounds like debbing lol Need the “blah blah blah” reaction back 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted Sunday at 01:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:12 PM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 01:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:13 PM 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not Debbing, but I’m getting a “white rain until after dark” vibe for the metro areas on Tuesday. Like DCA has a “surprise” high of 42 or something before it starts wet-bulbing. Could be right for the UHIs. Burbs like Ashburn and Columbia could see 1-2” otg before dark, then it’ll become easier to tack more on afterward. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 01:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:14 PM 6z AI cut back some on qpf. It seems to be going back and forth some over the last 6 runs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted Sunday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:16 PM Oh NO!! As a warminsta, I thought I and DCA might get nothing. The NWS winter weather update map Snow and Ice Forecasts & Services Expected: 4" Best case for me: >1 Worst case: 7" Of course, this could all change by Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Sunday at 01:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:19 PM 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z AI cut back some on qpf. It seems to be going back and forth some over the last 6 runs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Sunday at 01:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:20 PM 3 minutes ago, arlwx12 said: Oh NO!! As a warminsta, I thought I and DCA might get nothing. The NWS winter weather update map Snow and Ice Forecasts & Services Expected: 4" Best case for me: >1 Worst case: 7" Of course, this could all change by Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted Sunday at 01:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:22 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Sunday at 01:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:26 PM 3 minutes ago, deer said: So weird. I see the 6am version and it’s higher amounts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:27 PM 2 minutes ago, deer said: I think a 3-5”/4-6” deal for DC/nearby burbs would be my call as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:27 PM 1 minute ago, mappy said: So weird. I see the 6am version and it’s higher amounts I think the one with higher amounts is computer generated, and the other was edited by a human. But that’s just my guess. 2-5/3-6” seems reasonable considering the marginal surface temps. Someone might good banding that could add an extra inch or two. 8” max upside 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Sunday at 01:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:30 PM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: I think the one with higher amounts is computer generated, and the other was edited by a human. But that’s just my guess. 2-5/3-6” seems reasonable considering the marginal surface temps. No temp issues IMBY, just a precip getting north issue lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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