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February 11-12; 12-13: Are they real??


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, paxpatriot said:

I think most of us would take this run in a heartbeat. Some wiggle room for us northern folks and good snow for people who don’t normally get it.

Ehhh I'd scale back the "don't normally get it" to "didn't normally get it before 2019"...because since then they most certainly have!

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9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Surface wise yes H5 looks markedly different out west though. No idea what it means, thats for someone smarter than me to parse.

500h_anom.conus.png

500h_anom.conus.png

This appears to impact the Thursday storm more, and FWIW makes it less energetic though not enough to save us

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm still unsure looking at this side-by-side if this was really a jog "north" or just wetter. I'm okay with either trend where we stand for now.

imo it’s a little of both. Looks like 10-20 miles north from 18z + a better precip shield.

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I was purple nurpled! I’m totally down with it. Though, I feel like we might still see a few small north ticks on future runs? Looking forward to Euro, but I’ll hopefully be fast asleep. Gotta boot the Covid out my body before Tuesday. ^_^

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Just now, Scraff said:

I was purple nurpled! I’m totally down with it. Though, I feel like we might still see a few small north ticks on future runs? Looking forward to Euro, but I’ll hopefully be fast asleep. Gotta boot the Covid out my body before Tuesday. ^_^

Hope you feel better soon and don't have too bad of a case!!

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Qpf
IMG_7207.thumb.png.830a955044ee76c00c02da87caac46eb.png
10:1
IMG_7208.thumb.png.0aca761d9664c9cd9e36c66632e9d76b.png
IMG_7206.thumb.png.ae7a18e1a0b0446d0256956085628640.png

Kind of confusing up north since I assume that includes snowfall from tonight into tomorrow for New York and points N.

Nice run for our parts. Not so much a north move, rather a healthier precip shield and better angle of attack to the naked eye. I’ll let someone with more knowledge break it down.

euro / gfs showing a 4-8” possibility for many
NAM / icon / gem showing more of a 2-5” storm
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Yeah, the jack will be south of the CWA as clskinsfan said. Models are clear as day on that. The question is, does DC and possibly Baltimore get in on those totals around 6” as well if there’s enough of a north push over the coming 2-3 days

Frederick does a really good job of averaging 2-4” every storm, so that’s my bar
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