Chris78 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: That’s Crush Davis…. I'm talking 2021 Chris Davis not 2015. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Nice improvement in WB 18Z ICON 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 30 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The Nam is doing what I thought the other models have been trying to do at the end of it's run. There's a second piece of energy that slides up after the initial weak pos wave comes through earlier during the day. It's our best shot for northern areas to get snow prior to the next storm sliding west of us on Thursday. This is more overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. My hope is that becomes a bit more well defined. RGEM with 2-4 with that second wave. Agreed, we need that to juice up if we want a shot at 2-4. Euro tried at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Nice improvement in WB 18Z ICON Icon did what the Nam was doing at the end of its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Nice improvement in WB 18Z ICON This should now be everyone's reasonable expectation. I changed mine and I'm pleased. We were never going to get those clown amounts on the GFS. Ain't nobody got time to be punting on any accumulating snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Nice improvement in WB 18Z ICON It’s only an improvement if it happens twice in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Something I can't show is a lot more precip moves in Wed night. on ICON. Looks like some ice on top of the snow especially NW before all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: This should now be everyone's reasonable expectation. I changed mine and I'm pleased. We were never going to get those clown amounts on the GFS. Ain't nobody got time to be punting on any accumulating snow my bar remains at 2" - which has allowed me to keep some sanity. I might up it to 3" if the surface could get a bit colder somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This should now be everyone's reasonable expectation. I changed mine and I'm pleased. We were never going to get those clown amounts on the GFS. Ain't nobody got time to be punting on any accumulating snow The NAM is concerning me for the Richmond area. Other models look decent, 4-6 inches but likely 2-3 due to the warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, RVAman said: The NAM is concerning me for the Richmond area. Other models look decent, 4-6 inches but likely 2-3 due to the warmth. I wouldn't sweat the NAM quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Sterling says. Expect the north and south shifts for another day or two before models nail it down..... "This feature will not be fully sampled over the CONUS for another day or so, so the so called wind shield wiper effect of south/north shifts in model output is expected" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Did we just get ICON'd...relatively speaking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 GFS seems to be about the same...but that surface freezing jumped north a bit. Definitely a warmer surface 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Drier down south...surface fzg line is way different tho. hmmm. it's so much warmer at the surface than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, stormtracker said: Drier down south...surface fzg line is way different tho. hmmm. it's so much warmer at the surface than 12z North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Going to be a drier run it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Interesting...the second slug kinda is a bit further north. It seems slower...it's wetter, later, lol. Might be a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, stormtracker said: Interesting...the second slug kinda is a bit further north. It seems slower...it's wetter, later, lol. Might be a wash. Snow line is down near RIC at 84 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Snow maps are actually pretty good. Surprising considering the surface. RIC is the winner with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Going to be a drier run it appears. all things considered identical thru 90 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, stormtracker said: Interesting...the second slug kinda is a bit further north. It seems slower...it's wetter, later, lol. Might be a wash. Looks like the second slug idea might have legs 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Just now, yoda said: Snow line is down near RIC at 84 FWIW Trying to figure out how it's accumulating at like 34 degrees at first...but hey, what do I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: all things considered identical thru 90 Yes, I said that after the second slug came through. Can't tell if it was slower or just different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, stormtracker said: Trying to figure out how it's accumulating at like 34 degrees at first...but hey, what do I know Probably best to let the CAMS figure out the thermals a bit closer in. We have a 1036 high up top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I guess it depends how you prefer your snow but arguable "downside" of this run is that the snowfall rate is like 0.3"/hr max... long ass snowstorm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: all things considered identical thru 90 Actually a little better down around RIC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6” line bisecting DC w to e. Probably translates to 4” otg 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Remember when this was one wave then it started showing snow on Monday then switched to Tuesday then a wed/Thursday slug looks like we're morphing into a weak wave one then a strong 2?? Who the F knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: 6” line bisecting DC w to e. Probably translates to 4” otg Something like that - there are more hours then I like where the surface temps are over 32 in DC. Might need to go to the other side of the river for this one? @stormtracker not poo-pooing our event but I kinda assume if it snows 0.3"/hr in DC at 34 during the daytime it never snowed in the first place? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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