February 11-12; 12-13: Are they real??

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not this season.

Perhaps a north tic, and praying for expansion of heavier precipitation field. That is all I see at this point. Track will probably be locked in as @stormtrackermentioned by tomorrow afternoon 

[mitchnick]

Considering how many models shifted north for today's event from 12z runs yesterday, anything really is possible.  Likelihood is a different question. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Considering how many models shifted north for today's event from 12z runs yesterday, anything really is possible.  Likelihood is a different question. 

If anyone didn’t release models can make big jumps inside a day sometimes so everyone take a deep breath and just let it be. Living and dying by each run is stupid. 

[Ji]

EPS by wed afternoon

[wtkidz]

Just remember a model has never made it snow or rain or even made the sun shine.  Use it as a tool to forecast , not as an absolute. .. I will step down. 

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS by wed afternoon

That's not bad guys. Solid  warning level storm for most of us!!

[winter_warlock]

I'm wondering if maybe tomorrow afternoon. LWX will start throwing winter storm watches up? 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS by wed afternoon

You mean the GEFS

Here is the EPS-

[Ji]

You mean the GEFS
Here is the EPS-

Oops sorry

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Oops sorry

No worries, we knew…it’s good news

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS by wed afternoon

That's the gefs.

[Weather Will]

WB 15Z SREF ARW, lock it in.

[winter_warlock]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You mean the GEFS

Here is the EPS-

 Not a whole lot of difference  in the 2

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 15Z SREF ARW, lock it in.

Solid hit for central md.  4+ inches

[Jrlg1181]

16 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I'm wondering if maybe tomorrow afternoon. LWX will start throwing winter storm watches up? 

Was thinking about that earlier,  guessing 2mar evening...

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Was thinking about that earlier,  guessing 2mar evening...

Yup I agree!!

[mitchnick]

AI looks a little south but not much if it is lousy graphics.

[wxdude64]

37 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Not a whole lot of difference  in the 2

Yep, my area went from like 7.2 to 7.0.....

[NVAwx]

Afternoon AFD doesn’t even nibble at QPF or watches. 
2:33 PM AFD:

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upcoming week will feature a very active stretch of weather
locally, with multiple opportunities for wintry precipitation.

Models are in good agreement that on the synoptic scale, there will
be upper level ridging in place in the East Pacific/over Alaska, and
then also over the North Atlantic/Greenland, with a broad upper low
in place over much of Canada. A strong north-south temperature
gradient will reside to the south of the upper low over the United
States, with a corresponding strong upper jet extending across the
CONUS. Multiple disturbances will both undercut the Alaskan ridge,
and ride over the ridge within split flow, then rapidly move
eastward across the CONUS. The trend over the past few model cycles
has been for more confluence over New England resulting in a
slightly suppressed storm track Tue. The energy associated with this
feature has also trended more strung out as compared to
consolidated. This feature will not be fully sampled over the CONUS
for another day or so, so the so called wind shield wiper effect of
south/north shifts in model output is expected.

The first system will exit by 12Z Wed with only a short break in
precip before the next precip event arrives midnight Wed night.
The primary low pressure system is fcst to track across the upper OH
River Valley with guidance indicating a prominent warm nose a mix to
rain or all rain more likely. Areas west of the Blue Ridge could see
another icing event with this system.

A third and more complex system may impact the region next weekend
with all types of wintry precip possible. Temps look to stay below
normal for daytime highs and near normal for nighttime lows into
late Feb aside from residing in the warm sector of any cyclones.

 

[NVAwx]

Precip starting to move into the 6-hour forecasts.  This is by 7am Tuesday (furthest it goes for now). 

[wtkidz]

7 minutes ago, NVAwx said:

Afternoon AFD doesn’t even nibble at QPF or watches. 
2:33 PM AFD:

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upcoming week will feature a very active stretch of weather
locally, with multiple opportunities for wintry precipitation.

Models are in good agreement that on the synoptic scale, there will
be upper level ridging in place in the East Pacific/over Alaska, and
then also over the North Atlantic/Greenland, with a broad upper low
in place over much of Canada. A strong north-south temperature
gradient will reside to the south of the upper low over the United
States, with a corresponding strong upper jet extending across the
CONUS. Multiple disturbances will both undercut the Alaskan ridge,
and ride over the ridge within split flow, then rapidly move
eastward across the CONUS. The trend over the past few model cycles
has been for more confluence over New England resulting in a
slightly suppressed storm track Tue. The energy associated with this
feature has also trended more strung out as compared to
consolidated. This feature will not be fully sampled over the CONUS
for another day or so, so the so called wind shield wiper effect of
south/north shifts in model output is expected.

The first system will exit by 12Z Wed with only a short break in
precip before the next precip event arrives midnight Wed night.
The primary low pressure system is fcst to track across the upper OH
River Valley with guidance indicating a prominent warm nose a mix to
rain or all rain more likely. Areas west of the Blue Ridge could see
another icing event with this system.

A third and more complex system may impact the region next weekend
with all types of wintry precip possible. Temps look to stay below
normal for daytime highs and near normal for nighttime lows into
late Feb aside from residing in the warm sector of any cyclones.

 

This basically what they have said for the last 3 AFD.  It is like they don’t want to say anything wrong or new.   IMHO…..

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, wtkidz said:

This basically what they have said for the last 3 AFD.  It is like they don’t want to say anything wrong or new.   IMHO…..

I mean is there really anything “new” to report? Until we get some consistency, it’s not worth saying much different. 

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, NVAwx said:

Afternoon AFD doesn’t even nibble at QPF or watches. 
2:33 PM AFD:

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upcoming week will feature a very active stretch of weather
locally, with multiple opportunities for wintry precipitation.

Models are in good agreement that on the synoptic scale, there will
be upper level ridging in place in the East Pacific/over Alaska, and
then also over the North Atlantic/Greenland, with a broad upper low
in place over much of Canada. A strong north-south temperature
gradient will reside to the south of the upper low over the United
States, with a corresponding strong upper jet extending across the
CONUS. Multiple disturbances will both undercut the Alaskan ridge,
and ride over the ridge within split flow, then rapidly move
eastward across the CONUS. The trend over the past few model cycles
has been for more confluence over New England resulting in a
slightly suppressed storm track Tue. The energy associated with this
feature has also trended more strung out as compared to
consolidated. This feature will not be fully sampled over the CONUS
for another day or so, so the so called wind shield wiper effect of
south/north shifts in model output is expected.

The first system will exit by 12Z Wed with only a short break in
precip before the next precip event arrives midnight Wed night.
The primary low pressure system is fcst to track across the upper OH
River Valley with guidance indicating a prominent warm nose a mix to
rain or all rain more likely. Areas west of the Blue Ridge could see
another icing event with this system.

A third and more complex system may impact the region next weekend
with all types of wintry precip possible. Temps look to stay below
normal for daytime highs and near normal for nighttime lows into
late Feb aside from residing in the warm sector of any cyclones.

 

Watches wouldn't occur until Monday AM most likely.

[Jebman]

33 minutes ago, NVAwx said:

Afternoon AFD doesn’t even nibble at QPF or watches. 
2:33 PM AFD:

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upcoming week will feature a very active stretch of weather
locally, with multiple opportunities for wintry precipitation.

Models are in good agreement that on the synoptic scale, there will
be upper level ridging in place in the East Pacific/over Alaska, and
then also over the North Atlantic/Greenland, with a broad upper low
in place over much of Canada. A strong north-south temperature
gradient will reside to the south of the upper low over the United
States, with a corresponding strong upper jet extending across the
CONUS. Multiple disturbances will both undercut the Alaskan ridge,
and ride over the ridge within split flow, then rapidly move
eastward across the CONUS. The trend over the past few model cycles
has been for more confluence over New England resulting in a
slightly suppressed storm track Tue. The energy associated with this
feature has also trended more strung out as compared to
consolidated. This feature will not be fully sampled over the CONUS
for another day or so, so the so called wind shield wiper effect of
south/north shifts in model output is expected.

The first system will exit by 12Z Wed with only a short break in
precip before the next precip event arrives midnight Wed night.
The primary low pressure system is fcst to track across the upper OH
River Valley with guidance indicating a prominent warm nose a mix to
rain or all rain more likely. Areas west of the Blue Ridge could see
another icing event with this system.

A third and more complex system may impact the region next weekend
with all types of wintry precip possible. Temps look to stay below
normal for daytime highs and near normal for nighttime lows into
late Feb aside from residing in the warm sector of any cyclones.

 

Ninja'd

[Interstate]

2 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Well im a hoping lol

Aren’t you like 0-51 now?

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Aren’t you like 0-51 now?

Chris Davis territory 

[Chris78]

The Nam is doing what I thought the other models have been trying to do at the end of it's run. There's a second piece of energy that slides up after the initial weak pos wave comes through earlier during the day. It's our best shot for northern areas to get snow prior to the next storm sliding west of us on Thursday. This is more overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  My hope is that becomes a bit more well defined. 

[Chris78]

To add to my post above the movement of the precip is more North East compared to earlier in the day when it's sliding almost due east.

[HighStakes]

11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The Nam is doing what I thought the other models have been trying to do at the end of it's run. There's a second piece of energy that slides up after the initial weak pos wave comes through earlier during the day. It's our best shot for northern areas to get snow prior to the next storm sliding west of us on Thursday. This is more overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  My hope is that becomes a bit more well defined. 

Being that were still almost 3 full days from the event I'm sure there will be another wrinkle or 2. That second piece of enery surely could  get more defined and salvage this thing for some of us. Both EURO and GFS kinda keep the precip going for hours into Wednesday albeit light.

[blizzardmeiser]

24 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Chris Davis territory 

That’s Crush Davis….