high risk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: What is the maximum range for the NBM? You can't really define a range for it, as it is combining forecasts from multiple ensemble systems with some extra adjustments made with bias correction techniques for amounts (not spatial coverage). Ultimately, it only has much accuracy as the overall synoptic skill and skill-spread ratios of the various inputs, but its purpose is that it's not as prone to wild swings from individual solutions. That said, the "deterministic" solution shown in that previous post is worth looking at, but it should be done in conjunction with percentiles and probabilities. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, high risk said: You can't really define a range for it, as it is combining forecasts from multiple ensemble systems with some extra adjustments made with bias correction techniques for amounts (not spatial coverage). Ultimately, it only has much accuracy as the overall synoptic skill and skill-spread ratios of the various inputs, but its purpose is that it's not as prone to wild swings from individual solutions. That said, the "deterministic" solution shown in that previous post is worth looking at, but it should be done in conjunction with percentiles and probabilities. Thanks for the explanation. Always wondered about how the ensembles factored into that. Much appreciated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 ok, snow maps are coming out on the Euro and....looks like the GFS imo so far. it's at 84 with a little more left Amounts drop off north of montgomery county and B'more. Pretty map people do your thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 This is starting to feel like January 6th. The northern crew is starting to pack it in (although I think there is more upside for you guys with this one). Jackpot zone from Quantico to Alexandria. With nice snows close to warning level up to Baltimore. I hope everyone scores big, but this is how it looks now. We don’t have the temps leading in to get a foot plus again, but 6-10 in the jackpot zone seems not unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: ok, snow maps are coming out on the Euro and....looks like the GFS imo so far. it's at 84 with a little more left Amounts drop off north of montgomery county and B'more. Pretty map people do your thing. Hair souther 2 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Hair souther A hair? You must be bald. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Hair souther Maybe I'm misremembering 6z but that seems somewhat significantly souther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hair souther No ideal, but def not kicking it out of bed. I hope we can start seeing a northern trend soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Maybe I'm misremembering 6z but that seems somewhat significantly souther You kinda are - this doesn’t include the lingering snow and the start of the second wave, which was included in the maps people posted earlier… this is only the “meat” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: You kinda are - this doesn’t include the lingering snow and the start of the second wave, which was included in the maps people posted earlier… this is only the “meat” Anything anywhere for round 2 before it craps the bed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, mitchnick said: Anything anywhere for round 2 before it craps the bed? Not really, warm and little zr to the far NW but thermals go to shit quickly weds aftn/thurs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 So maybe I was harsh - there is the more solid push Tuesday then something that appears sorta separate… but it all kinda blends. This is probably a better map. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hair souther Well that blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I'm torn, in order to make a late run to victory in the snow total comp I need these storms more north toward DCA/BWI. On the other hand I just want snow imby and this winter we seem to be in the bullseye so I can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Wow! Richmond and north to Fredericksburg look like the jackpot to me. I think it is a bit south, but not coming north anymore. Just hoping for precipitation expansion now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 We're COOKED 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: So maybe I was harsh - there is the more solid push Tuesday then something that appears sorta separate… but it all kinda blends. This is probably a better map. 4" on this one 7+" on the gfs for mby...not mad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Wow! Richmond and north to Fredericksburg look like the jackpot to me. I think it is a bit south, but not coming north anymore. Just hoping for precipitation expansion now We got 4 days. More to gain than to lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, Ji said: We got 4 days. More to gain than to lose Some of us have nothing to lose. Lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 We got 4 days. More to gain than to lose Less than 3 days. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 I don't think anybody, plus or minus, should be locking anything in yet. There is still plenty of time for changes, especially with the models windshield wipe-ring every run. We we start getting into tomorrow, then models should start to converge I would think. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GFS nailed mby for today for what it's worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, stormtracker said: I don't think anybody, plus or minus, should be locking anything in yet. There is still plenty of time for changes, especially with the models windshield wipe-ring every run. We we start getting into tomorrow, then models should start to converge I would think. Yup if I recall the jan 6th event didn't get locked down till we were only 48 hours out. And even then it still drifted a bit north in the last 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Tracking winter storms keeps me on an emotional roller coaster lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: GFS nailed mby for today for what it's worth GFS is our max potential realistically now. I think we're probably looking at a 3-5 inch storm If we're lucky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Pretty rough run from the Euro up this way. GFS had the 3” line at the PA Turnpike. It never gets north of Montgomery County on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I have a feeling it will correct north in last 48 hours.. it seems alot if storms do that over time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, winter_warlock said: I ha e a feeling it will correct north in last 48 hours.. it seems alot if storms do that over time Not this season. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Not this season. Well im a hoping lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not this season. Don't piss in my cornflakes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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