SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Saturday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:36 PM GEFS improved for Tuesday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:38 PM 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: GEFS improved for Tuesday From 6z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Saturday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:39 PM 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: GEFS improved for Tuesday 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:42 PM Gem may be a crap model, but I'll take it's solution du jour for next weekend. Remember though, it's an imby hobby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Saturday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:42 PM 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm wondering if that's gonna depend on how strong the Thursday cutter is... Thursday also gets impacted by what Monday/Tuesday does. Not a ton, because changes with the EPO ridge in NW Canada likely allows so much digging to happen in the Rockies/Plains I think even if Mon/Tues does everything possible to flatten or push things more S that Thursday is going pretty far north anyhow, but for up here and SNE it can probably make a marked difference for Thursday, in the MA likely no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted Saturday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:42 PM 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Gotta be some nice hits in there. Normally we would take this as a pretty strong signal for an event 3.5 days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Saturday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:43 PM It's about to cut throat up in here everyone put on your big boy and girl undies 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Saturday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:43 PM 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Looking at that loop through the past few cycles, it seems clear the 00Z was a very anemic outlier. It really stands out. All other GEFS means in that loop have a similarly wide area of decent or better snow, though it of course wavers back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:47 PM @mitchnickI think I found the answer wrt ensembles. You know how is the EPS arill has us in like 8” mean over the next 10 days but it’s from 4 waves and none are that high prob. It was similar thing but condensed. Looking at the GEFS and eps from 3-4 days ago the snow was spread out over 60 hours. That’s not unusual for ensembles at range to have timing differences. But the thing is liking at the precip mean it’s clear there was always uncertainty over when and how much to amplify a wave this week between Tues and Thurs. But the big error was they were too far SE with the thermal boundary because even the members that had the trailing wave more amplified had it as snow! We got those means because the members couldn’t agree on exactly which wave but it didn’t matter. They were all snow. What happened was the operational shifted to this solution if a stringer second wave at the same time the guidance realized the thermal boundary was going to press NW after the initial cold push. There were ens members that had this type of progression but they showed snow for the second wave. The unifying error was that they through it was going to be colder than it actually is, or that the boundary was going to stay SE of us all week instead of just one day to be exact. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Saturday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:47 PM 17 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs has bad ice this weekend Next weekend? Today is this weekend LOL! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 04:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:50 PM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @mitchnickI think I found the answer wrt ensembles. You know how is the EPS arill has us in like 8” mean over the next 10 days but it’s from 4 waves and none are that high prob. It was similar thing but condensed. Looking at the GEFS and eps from 3-4 days ago the snow was spread out over 60 hours. That’s not unusual for ensembles at range to have timing differences. But the thing is liking at the precip mean it’s clear there was always uncertainty over when and how much to amplify a wave this week between Tues and Thurs. But the big error was they were too far SE with the thermal boundary because even the members that had the trailing wave more amplified had it as snow! We got those means because the members couldn’t agree on exactly which wave but it didn’t matter. They were all snow. What happened was the operational shifted to this solution if a stringer second wave at the same time the guidance realized the thermal boundary was going to press NW after the initial cold push. There were ens members that had this type of progression but they showed snow for the second wave. The unifying error was that they through it was going to be colder than it actually is, or that the boundary was going to stay SE of us all week instead of just one day to be exact. And Sherlock Hoffmann has cracked the case! Brilliant deduction good sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:51 PM 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Thursday also gets impacted by what Monday/Tuesday does. Not a ton, because changes with the EPO ridge in NW Canada likely allows so much digging to happen in the Rockies/Plains I think even if Mon/Tues does everything possible to flatten or push things more S that Thursday is going pretty far north anyhow, but for up here and SNE it can probably make a marked difference for Thursday, in the MA likely no. Ah I see. So do you think Thursday in turn influences the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Saturday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:52 PM 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And Sherlock Hoffmann has cracked the case! Brilliant deduction good sir Elementary, my dear Maestro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Saturday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:53 PM 1 hour ago, MDScienceTeacher said: I thought the 6Z gave DC like 5 inches? It’s just a tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:54 PM There shouldn't really be any overlap with snow accumulations today... here are the 12z GEFS individual members through 108. This is the closest I can get 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:56 PM WB 15Z NBM through Wed. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:56 PM Of course none of this matters until Euro is onboard.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:01 PM Ukie will work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted Saturday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:01 PM 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Of course none of this matters until Euro is onboard.... The euro seems on board enough to me…it fits in with the NBM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:02 PM Ukie not quite as good as 0z but ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:03 PM UKIE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:05 PM Pretty consistent across guidance now. This is a southern jack with the Tuesday deal. 2-6 around our area with less the further north you are. The 6z Euro was sweet imo. Frozen of some kind for days out this way. Wintry week is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:06 PM 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UKIE Kuchie 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:07 PM Like I said, models seem to be converging on a 2-4/3-5er DC metro with a little more south, less north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:09 PM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Like I said, models seem to be converging on a 2-4/3-5er DC metro with a little more south, less north LWX AFD mentioned that the EPS min/max is quite wide... as low as an inch and as much as a foot across N VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:10 PM Just now, yoda said: LWX AFD mentioned that the EPS min/max is quite wide... as low as an inch and as much as a foot across N VA Yeah, I think its gonna be somewhere in the middle, maybe probably a bit less than the middle. Will be interesting to see what the euro shows today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Saturday at 05:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:12 PM 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 15Z NBM through Wed. What is the maximum range for the NBM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted Saturday at 05:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:15 PM Seen this movie too many times over the last 6-8 years for Baltimore. I know how it ends. I'm very aware of our climo and while I long for big storms, I fully appreciate how rare they are and how easy it is for us to go several years without anything really meaningful. But this is getting stupid. The entire state of VA, the beaches, and obv north and west of us have all jacked multiple times in recent years while we get the rug pulled again and again. I haven't whined about it once, but I'm reaching my breaking point, lol. Shit is turning me into the joker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted Saturday at 05:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:16 PM 20 minutes ago, yoda said: There shouldn't really be any overlap with snow accumulations today... here are the 12z GEFS individual members through 108. This is the closest I can get 18 out of 30 put purple or pink over my yard. 30 miles South of DC. I like it a lot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted Saturday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:19 PM 4 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Seen this movie too many times over the last 6-8 years for Baltimore. I know how it ends. I'm very aware of our climo and while I long for big storms, I fully appreciate how rare they are and how easy it is for us to go several years without anything really meaningful. But this is getting stupid. The entire state of VA, the beaches, and obv north and west of us have all jacked multiple times in recent years while we get the rug pulled again and again. I haven't whined about it once, but I'm reaching my breaking point, lol. Shit is turning me into the joker. Preach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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