adelphi_sky Posted Friday at 11:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:16 PM Calling JG Winterworth. I want my snowstorm and I want it NOW!. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:17 PM 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: I know that but climo does play a part. That's why temps average alot colder in northern MD then they do in Southern Virginia. Suppose its snowing heavily in S VA and you are smoking cirrus? Without an Arctic airmass in place your more northern area could easily be warmer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Friday at 11:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:18 PM Just now, CAPE said: Suppose its snowing heavily in S VA and you are smoking cirrus? Without an Arctic airmass in place your more northern area could easily be warmer. Ok lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted Friday at 11:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:19 PM I mean, I like this happy hour run. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Friday at 11:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:23 PM Euro is south. Yikes. 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 11:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:24 PM 4 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: I mean, I like this happy hour run. Lol We oughta have a backyardigan emoji for strictly imby perspective, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherkyle Posted Friday at 11:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:24 PM 33 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Is now the time we all start talking about when we joined Eastern? Isabel. I think my first post there was 9/16/03. Mike and Eric Thomas had enough of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted Friday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:27 PM Thank you all for sending me the snow . You can stop sending further south. Of course this has a nonzero chance zero chance of happening. But look at the day 4 and 5 percip numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherkyle Posted Friday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:27 PM maybe it will move north this weekend. Maybe tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 11:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:28 PM 5 minutes ago, bncho said: Euro is south. Yikes. I like it where it is, tbh. We don’t have a block established yet, and when it isn’t there or is just starting, storms almost always come north at the last minute! (Before anyone comes at me with their backyard anecdotes, i’ll say its a different story once the block does establish itself as it did for the Jan 6 storm for example) 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted Friday at 11:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:35 PM It’s been a while since we’ve spent a week tracking a ghost, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Friday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:38 PM 19 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: I mean, I like this happy hour run. Lol Were happy that ur happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Friday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:39 PM 35 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Well being 120 Mile's south would make ya a lil warmer No, that’s not how it works. At all. Not hating, just saying lol. Cold air moves, as does warm air. It can be warmed and/or colder anywhere in the country. It can be 25 in Louisiana and 60 in Richmond. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Friday at 11:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:40 PM 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I like it where it is, tbh. We don’t have a block established yet, and when it isn’t there or is just starting, storms almost always come north at the last minute! (Before anyone comes at me with their backyard anecdotes, i’ll say its a different story once the block does establish itself as it did for the Jan 6 storm for example) Jan 6 storm was nice but it wasn't that big if a storm. This coming storm Tuesday will be about the sane thing. Typical 4 to 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Friday at 11:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:40 PM 1 minute ago, RVAman said: No, that’s not how it works. At all. Not hating, just saying lol. Cold air moves, as does warm air. It can be warmed and/or colder anywhere in the country. It can be 25 in Louisiana and 60 in Richmond. Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Friday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:41 PM 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I like it where it is, tbh. We don’t have a block established yet, and when it isn’t there or is just starting, storms almost always come north at the last minute! (Before anyone comes at me with their backyard anecdotes, i’ll say its a different story once the block does establish itself as it did for the Jan 6 storm for example) I just want this thing to have enough juice. I'm less concerned about north or south and more concerned with qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 11:42 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:42 PM Just now, aldie 22 said: I just want this thing to have enough juice. I'm less concerned about north or south and more concerned with qpf That’s fair. We’ll see how much moisture comes out of the gulf for the tuesday wave. I’m willing to bet it will be a little more than the models are currently showing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Friday at 11:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:43 PM 15 minutes ago, wtkidz said: Thank you all for sending me the snow . You can stop sending further south. Of course this has a nonzero chance zero chance of happening. But look at the day 4 and 5 percip numbers. Lots of rain in the south. Will help if they have a drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Friday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:45 PM 17 minutes ago, weatherkyle said: maybe it will move north this weekend. Maybe tonight? It's barely a moderate event anymore lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:47 PM 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: It’s almost as far south as last nights 00Z when the bottom fell out. Lost all the northward movement we picked up since that run. We already lost it. Last GEFS was awful. It was just a fluke the op was a wet north outlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Friday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:47 PM Just now, psuhoffman said: We already lost it. Last GEFS was awful. It was just a fluke the op was a wet north outlier. Agreed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Friday at 11:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:52 PM In 24 hours I bet we are worried about mixing again and too far north! LOL! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Friday at 11:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:52 PM 35 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: Calling JG Winterworth. I want my snowstorm and I want it NOW! . Underrated post. Heard the song in my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:55 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:55 PM 27 minutes ago, weatherkyle said: maybe it will move north this weekend. Maybe tonight? I'm ok with this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted Friday at 11:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:56 PM 14 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Lots of rain in the south. Will help if they have a drought We do. And I have a well for water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:56 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:56 PM 3 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Underrated post. Heard the song in my head 877 Cash Now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted Friday at 11:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:58 PM 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm ok with this. At least I won’t have to worry about shoveling the 1” that falls here during the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 12:07 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:07 AM Hopefully, Eps will prevail. 120hrs for storm 1 and 144hrs for 2, or part of it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 12:11 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:11 AM 1 hour ago, Ji said: its still a pretty wet run down south. still dont believe Richmond will be the bullseye for this storm You have to realize most of the people dooming this are in northeast MD. I know you think you’ve had it bad but they’ve had it 2x worse. I’ve been lucky I’ve caught some of the SE edge of storms that went just to our regions north over the last 8 years like 2 weeks ago. But there is an area from Baltimore northeast in our forum that’s had absolutely no good snowstorms the last 8 years. Every single one fringed them. Some went north. Some did what this one is looking like. But it’s absolutely amazing. I keep saying it’s just random bad luck but my god. 1 hour ago, Paleocene said: @dailylurkercalling it now. That e-w stripe thru RIC is actually an E-W stripe thru sterling, silver spring, crofton, annapolis, and @CAPE 33 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I like it where it is, tbh. We don’t have a block established yet, and when it isn’t there or is just starting, storms almost always come north at the last minute! (Before anyone comes at me with their backyard anecdotes, i’ll say its a different story once the block does establish itself as it did for the Jan 6 storm for example) Combining both these points, imo it depends if we see a change in the orientation of the precip. The better runs had a SW-NE trajectory. This W-E trajectory won’t work. It’s not coming at us from a high enough latitude if it’s not amplifying and gaining latitude. If it was we would have temp issues because the thermal gradient is situated such that we need a wave that’s gaining some latitude as it progresses. Also in general the north trend is real in non blocking regimes but NOT when the wave is on a W-E trajectory. Waves that are gaining latitude tend to trend north. I’ve noticed through when a wave is not gaining any latitude on its way east it actually trends south more often. I think it’s just a product of the fact that if a wave isn’t gaining latitude it’s not amplifying but also it would take an error earlier in the process where the storm has to start out further north. The north trend is usually from models underestimating the feedback from the southerly flow ahead of the wave once it gets going not from a placement error of the wave as it ejects into the plains. TLDR version, if we bet to 72 hours out and this still has a W-E trajectory it probably is going to stay south. If it starts to take on a SW-NE trajectory we are good. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 12:14 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:14 AM 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Hopefully, Eps will prevail. 120hrs for storm 1 and 144hrs for 2, or part of it. Ok I’m gonna be a deb here and point out our 6” mean is from 3 waves 2” at a time with rain in between. That’s kinda meh. Sorry if that offends some. No I don’t need 8”+ to be happy. I was tickled pink by the 6” snow I got last month. But a bunch of 2” fringe jobs doesn’t do much for me. If that makes me a horrible person so be it. 3 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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