LVblizzard Posted Wednesday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:04 PM 56 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Yeah 100%. Rough morning commute for sure till about 10am I have to be somewhere at 11 so I’m hoping the roads aren’t too bad at that time. I’m able to take main roads for 95% of the drive which should help a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Wednesday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:37 PM 45 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I don't see it being rough at all maybe just maybe backroads little dicey that's about it. Local burbs with the low around 29 or 30 plus they will brine today, should be mainly wet. The city should be no problem. Freezing rain sucks when it's in a low to mid-20s but near 30 it's mainly wet on the roads. Trees and branches are different story. Got right behind a brine truck this morning.My brake lines were cursing in pain... 31F/Parly sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Wednesday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:52 PM I predict tomorrow morning and afternoon aftermath to be a real pain in the ass to cleanup. Expecting .50" snow then 1.25 to 1.50" of kitchen sink stuff sleet, graupel, snizzle and finally about a tenth of an inch of freezing rain as a finisher. Better off the further southeast you can get. Then repeat Super Bowl Sunday morning. A couple hip breaker little storms for the old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Wednesday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:03 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Wednesday at 07:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:25 PM 18Z HRRR* still mainly frozen, just some drizzle at the end. *HRRR at range, use with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Wednesday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:54 PM Crazy how models differ so much with the snow/sleet line at the onset of precip. The NAM has it pretty much entirely in NJ while the Euro and HRRR give the Lehigh Valley plowable snow. 18z NAM is coming out now, hopefully it’ll give us a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Wednesday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:02 PM 18z NAM is still an outlier with warm mid levels, but it took a step towards the colder solutions. It actually gets snow west of the Delaware this time. That’s all I really wanted to see from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted Wednesday at 08:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:06 PM NAM in the past has always been absolute money with the sleet line. I'm buying it. Mostly sleet outside of far n and w areas who will also see a lot of sleet but they will begin at least as snow. Ends as light rain for Philly and burbs. I refuse to buy into the other models showing snowier solutions... I've been burned way too many times by ignoring the NAM in these situations... it's usually spot on and if it's indicating a mix line further N than other models, it's a red flag imo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Wednesday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:22 PM Always buy the NAM on snow vs non snow....much better NAM run - significantly less ZR - still little or no snow in Eastern PA and similar sleet totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Wednesday at 08:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:24 PM Anything that falls after 9am would be non-snow if the 850mb temps are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Wednesday at 11:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:12 PM 4 hours ago, RedSky said: I predict tomorrow morning and afternoon aftermath to be a real pain in the ass to cleanup. Expecting .50" snow then 1.25 to 1.50" of kitchen sink stuff sleet, graupel, snizzle and finally about a tenth of an inch of freezing rain as a finisher. Better off the further southeast you can get. Then repeat Super Bowl Sunday morning. A couple hip breaker little storms for the old. The kitchen sink stuff seems to hang around till mid June in mall parking lots especially if you have a weenie snow plow driver. It's like one big mound of ice... 32F/ clear...let's get down as low as we can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Wednesday at 11:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:14 PM 30.7°/14°dp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted Wednesday at 11:16 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:16 PM The dew points are certainly low. It will be interesting to see what happens overnight and early Thursday morning as the initial cooling occurs with the onset of the precipitation while the warm air advection strengthens the warm layer aloft. It will be a battle! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Wednesday at 11:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:19 PM 2 minutes ago, MGorse said: The dew points are certainly low. It will be interesting to see what happens overnight and early Thursday morning as the initial cooling occurs with the onset of the precipitation while the warm air advection strengthens the warm layer aloft. It will be a battle! Interesting for sure, lots of initial virga⁉️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted Thursday at 01:05 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:05 AM 1 hour ago, MGorse said: The dew points are certainly low. It will be interesting to see what happens overnight and early Thursday morning as the initial cooling occurs with the onset of the precipitation while the warm air advection strengthens the warm layer aloft. It will be a battle! Mike, happy National Weatherman's Day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted Thursday at 01:07 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:07 AM 1 hour ago, MGorse said: The dew points are certainly low. It will be interesting to see what happens overnight and early Thursday morning as the initial cooling occurs with the onset of the precipitation while the warm air advection strengthens the warm layer aloft. It will be a battle! I was looking at that as well my temp is 32F Dp is 18 out here in Western Berks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted Thursday at 01:16 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:16 AM The 00z Dulles/Sterling RAOB (sounding) already shows a decent layer of above freezing air aloft. It is not above freezing by much but it is there. This likely is not as warm aloft farther northeast yet along with much drier air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Thursday at 01:18 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:18 AM 11 minutes ago, penndotguy said: I was looking at that as well my temp is 32F Dp is 18 out here in Western Berks Best thing to do if you're up, check the radar and locations 100 miles away and see if they're reporting snow. You'll get a estimate what to expect when it arrives in your area. 18 dew point isn't too bad. There are times when it's in single digits where I worry,.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted Thursday at 01:20 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:20 AM 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Best thing to do if you're up, check the radar and locations nearby and see if they're reporting snow. You'll get a estimate what to expect when it arrives in your area. 18 dew point isn't too bad. There are times when it's in single digits where I worry,.. PHL's dew point is at 12F as of 8 PM. Mount Pocono's dew point is sitting at 7F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Thursday at 01:40 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:40 AM 29F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Thursday at 01:46 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:46 AM 25 minutes ago, MGorse said: PHL's dew point is at 12F as of 8 PM. Mount Pocono's dew point is sitting at 7F. Well then, that's a whole different story. 13F DP in North Wales. Virga is highly annoying...may be in my top five pet peeves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Thursday at 01:48 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:48 AM Mostly Cloudy 31 humidity 49% dew point 15f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted Thursday at 01:50 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:50 AM 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Well then, that's a whole different story. 13F DP in North Wales. Virga is highly annoying...may be in my top five pet peeves. Yup, nothing like seeing precipitation on the radar overhead for awhile yet you keep looking out at the porch light and see no snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Thursday at 01:59 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:59 AM 2 minutes ago, MGorse said: Yup, nothing like seeing precipitation on the radar overhead for awhile yet you keep looking out at the porch light and see no snow. Amen to that. I remember a storm in the 70s where Herb Clark kept saying the moisture is not reaching the ground. I was like, WTF does that mean. Needless to say that storm busted low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted Thursday at 02:07 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:07 AM 30F DP13 cloudy Dewpoint is dropping with Temp. should be fun to watch this Evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Thursday at 02:41 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:41 AM 0z NAM 3k gives me .10" 12k .20" What is going on with the old namer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Thursday at 02:45 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:45 AM RAP is still .40-.60" let's go with that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Thursday at 03:46 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:46 AM Cloudy bumpy clouds above so warming aloft. 32f humidity 47% dew point 15f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Thursday at 03:56 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:56 AM 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Well then, that's a whole different story. 13F DP in North Wales. Virga is highly annoying...may be in my top five pet peeves. 30F....DP jumped, skipped and hopped to 17F. Hopefully things start falling when the radar shows they should be falling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Thursday at 03:59 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:59 AM Elliot Abrams’ rule of thumb was/is: Temp will drop by 1/3 the difference between temp and dew point… That rule would get me to 26°‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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