2/5-2/6 Wintry Mix Event

[Ralph Wiggum]

Things are starting to look more solid wrt frozen precip overnight Wednesday into Thursday AM rush before hopefully flipping to rain then moving out. Discussion here.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Last 3 NAM 12k 850 temps:

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2m surface temps at 10am Thursday last 2 runs. Colder. Maybe nam resolution is starting to note the better cad:

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looks like quite the mess from say i78 north and west. Hoping areas s and e can tick above freezing sooner. Temps are marginal but the killer is this happens mostly at night and coldest part of the day. Could still be potentially tricky for some of those s and e of 78.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Meanwhile the fv3 holds off on precip until after 6am extreme se pa.

[LVblizzard]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like quite the mess from say i78 north and west. Hoping areas s and e can tick above freezing sooner. Temps are marginal but the killer is this happens mostly at night and coldest part of the day. Could still be potentially tricky still for some of those s and e of 78.

I basically live right on 78. I can hear it from my house. I expect Thursday to be very messy. Will probably stay home that day, at least until the afternoon.

[penndotguy]

I’m roughly 20 miles south of 78 and unfortunately do rather good in these Cad setups and icing. 

[Birds~69]

42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Things are starting to look more solid wrt frozen precip overnight Wednesday into Thursday AM rush before hopefully flipping to rain then moving out. Discussion here.

I expect a little fun overnight but why are we hopefully hoping it switches tlo rain? Hell, give me all the frozen precip while we can... before you know it we will be sweating our balls off.

[Albedoman]

and who will never forget this icing event involving I-78 in 2007.  OMG was that bad .  I live near I-78 and I will never forget that night 

 

https://www.pennlive.com/life/2020/02/marathon-storm-dumped-snow-ice-and-freezing-rain-on-valentines-day-in-2007.html

[RedSky]

13 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

and who will never forget this icing event involving I-78 in 2007.  OMG was that bad .  I live near I-78 and I will never forget that night 

 

https://www.pennlive.com/life/2020/02/marathon-storm-dumped-snow-ice-and-freezing-rain-on-valentines-day-in-2007.html

5 or 6" sleet gave me a glacier and the best sledding

[ChescoWx]

The GFS only "slightly" shaved those 18z totals.....

[RedSky]

4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

The GFS only "slightly" shaved those 18z totals.....

No that is a major reduction, then consider much of that snow is sleet in the next two events. That would be a fail 

[RedSky]

Wait why we talking through 378hrs for the 5-6th lol

[CoolHandMike]

9 minutes ago, RedSky said:

No that is a major reduction, then consider much of that snow is sleet in the next two events. That would be a fail 

Yeah I'm reminded of an event in the late 2010's that was forecasted to be like two feet of snow when I lived in ChesCo but ended up being 6" of ZR/sleet/slush. The models seem to be way overblown with those snow totals, especially if you flip over to the precip type maps. I hope to be pleasantly surprised, but I'm not buying it. We are still in peak winter climo though, so... fingers crossed?

[RedSky]

ECM still hates it. Looks like <1" snow to sleet to rain

 

 

[LVblizzard]

1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

and who will never forget this icing event involving I-78 in 2007.  OMG was that bad .  I live near I-78 and I will never forget that night 

 

https://www.pennlive.com/life/2020/02/marathon-storm-dumped-snow-ice-and-freezing-rain-on-valentines-day-in-2007.html

This was the first storm I remember tracking on the models. I used the PSU E-Wall site and looked at the GFS and NAM religiously for a week leading up to the storm. Being in 7th grade at the time I hardly knew what I was looking at but I knew it would get pretty crazy. My school ended up closing for that entire week after the storm as the sheer amount of sleet was very difficult to clean up.

[ChescoWx]

The 12z HRRR with 2" to 4" of a little front end snow before a turn to sleet and ZR.

[Albedoman]

6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

The 12z HRRR with 2" to 4" of a little front end snow before a turn to sleet and ZR.

Yes this my thought as well. 3 to 6 rather than 2 to 4 on the snow amount o

[ChescoWx]

22 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Yes this my thought as well. 3 to 6 rather than 2 to 4 on the snow amount o

I supect any snow will be light with a quick change to some form of non-snow with this one!

[ChescoWx]

12z NAM a little closer to what I envision with any accumulating snow well to the northeast of our area.

[The Iceman]

The 3k NAM is what I think the outcome will be pretty much verbatim for most of the area. Very little snow, pretty much switches over to sleet immediately but most of the precip falls frozen then ends as light rain/drizzle. Obviously the further N and W you are the longer you will hold on frozen.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2025020412/nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_42.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2025020412/nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_45.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2025020412/nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_48.png

 

[Mikeymac5306]

ICON is a swing and miss for this and Saturday. 

[ChescoWx]

22 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

The 3k NAM is what I think the outcome will be pretty much verbatim for most of the area. Very little snow, pretty much switches over to sleet immediately but most of the precip falls frozen then ends as light rain/drizzle. Obviously the further N and W you are the longer you will hold on frozen.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2025020412/nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_42.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2025020412/nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_45.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2025020412/nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_48.png

 

Agreed 100%

[ChescoWx]

[ChescoWx]

That Canadian solution would be far from swell.....

[RedSky]

ECM is a couple hours of ice Thursday morning when Ralph drives to work 

 

[ChescoWx]

Let's hope the below Euro solution plays out!  No snow - small amount of sleet and somewhat less ZR. Warming comes in at least 3 hours faster than other models.

[ChescoWx]

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO NOON EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one
  tenth and two tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central,
  northeast, and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From midnight Wednesday Night to noon EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.

[JTA66]

18z NAM looks mainly frozen in SE PA (not saying it's right).

[RedSky]

.80" all frozen on the NAM that would be a high impact event