Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The pope thinks it’s going to be south

Then its coming north..............

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Then its coming north..............

I was just gonna post that…. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Steep lapse rates can greatly enhance lift via instability but it’s not the cause of it. The cause of the lift in this storm is warm air advection (isentropic lift)…warm air is being pushed into colder/denser air and causing it to rise over the top of it. If that saturated warmer air is forced to rise through a thick level of DGZ, then the snow growth is likely to be better than if it was a very thin layer of DGZ. 
 

In addition, a thin DGZ doesn’t have to be because of steep lapse rates, it can be due to an elevated warm layer too. Now you have the opposite of steep lapse rates. 

Thanks for the good clear response!

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Wpc honking hard for heavy snow Sunday of more than 8” from about the mass ct border up to the southern whites.   Looks like a fast moving hard hitting storm 

Looks good...I like that this one seems to be amplifying on approach in response to that flexing AK ridge....this one could have some banding surprises.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Wpc honking hard for heavy snow Sunday of more than 8” from about the mass ct border up to the southern whites.   Looks like a fast moving hard hitting storm 

The operational Euro from 00z depicted an unusually high efficiency QPF "explosion" for lack of better word, from an excessive  isentropic lift, overnight between Sat/Sun.  One of those morning's where a new 8-10" had abruptly occurred, and blue tinted light cleaves through curtain like a gelid peep hole from inside an igloo.  Big short duration snow rates .. .Somewhat reminds me of that Dec snow in 2007 that was supposed to be 3 or 4" then IP/ZR then a light rain finish, but it positive busted on the snow side to the tune of some 10" - major ending with freezing drizzle.  Never saw 32.

It seems to be the only guidance with that scale and degree of proficiency, and it is a rather detailed aspect that may not survive the 3 day's worth of model runs yet to come... so by virtue of that reality as it stands now we'd have to consider that low confidence.   That said, the system is quintessentially propagating - albeit fast - along the climate track that correlates well for snow from SE NY to S ME in the operational blends ...  something like HFD to ASH along that axis, even without that specific Euro efficiency... either way.  

Unlike this event today, this 9th one is much higher confidence at this point just because of the stark continuity in the guidance et al.  Whether it is 4-6" or 6-8" ...  meh.  I lean low end warning still and we'll see if some kind of exotic 5 hour, upper tier anomaly starts looking more likely in future runs.    

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually ... I'm also a bit skeptical on the higher amounts of the 8" range just looking at the ensemble means. 

This is not a very intense storm.  We want it to be on the N side of the climo track now that I'm thinking about that;  while not being too close to where it starts going the other way..  This is what it means to negotiate needle thread circumstance.  That's exactly how one has to fiddle with the guidance implications ( btw).  If the storm were slower it would probably be stronger by virtue of having been born out of a less compressed field ... so it would spread its goodies over a larger area.

The GEFs are just flat out too far S for a 998 mb low frankly, to really correlated more than 4". If the QPF is saying otherwise given below ...it's destined to tone it down as this nears.  

The EPS is better ...  *HOWEVER*, the entire Euro cluster has been too far NW with modeled cyclone tracks since this pattern foot became established.  That could be a caution flag for which team has error in its favor.

 

Having to compound all this with storm speed and lacking duration and this and that it's dicey for higher numbers.  So ... we'll see if there are any future short term wiggles that help.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea. Thinking 3-6” across sne. 

[WxWatcher007]

If there have been any caution flags this winter you take em and run. Deeply skeptical of higher end stuff here but the potential for a modest snow event remains. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

If there have been any caution flags this winter you take em and run. Deeply skeptical of higher end stuff here but the potential for a modest snow event remains. 

Pretty much every event has weakened towards go time, and you can already see the signs of that with this one and it’s 3 days away.

I would not be expecting more than a couple inches for most locations 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If there have been any caution flags this winter you take em and run. Deeply skeptical of higher end stuff here but the potential for a modest snow event remains. 

It's safe.  I mean, protecting one from the unsavory circumstance of having been d-dripped along by bullshit is a very adult thing to do.  Heh ... that super hot flirtatious waitress isn't really that into you

Seriously though, conserved approach when there are so many valid reasons to be conservative -

[CoastalWx]

Lets get the NAM whiff.

[WinterWolf]

Take a compromise at the moment between Euro and GFS, and it’s a nice little event for Sunday.  I agree with Luke…3-6” sounds good at the moment. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets get the NAM whiff.

lmao - congrats south shore LI .. just imagine if this one whiffs New England .. I actually like having NAM where it is now.. 

[The 4 Seasons]

The NAM in clown range, im sure that won't change a dozen times before Saturday.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

The NAM in clown range, im sure that won't change a dozen times before Saturday.

Wait you aren't locking in that run? I thought you loved the NAM

[Damage In Tolland]

That’s a concern two days out . It’s not like its hour 84

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets get the NAM whiff.

Ha.   That QPF field is probably just a virga event for NoP in that run.    

[Hazey]

There is some kind of phasing issues going. Not the first time this winter that a s/w has trouble amplifying as it gets closer to go time. Maybe that fast compressed flow is more of a hinderance than fist thought. Kinda puts red flags on the next week threats too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Take a compromise at the moment between Euro and GFS, and it’s a nice little event for Sunday.  I agree with Luke…3-6” sounds good at the moment. 

6" is too much given unmistakable and objective trends. 

That said ... trends can reverse.  That's what we're hoping for a winter enthusiasts.

If that happens...sure.   Part of the problem is not just that the system is trended(ing) S...  The problem is in understanding the structural limitations of a compressed field and fast flow, limiting the N-S extend of any system for that matter. Then adding consideration that this one is not a strong one. If I were Brian and Jay ...this is already a modeled a dim sun cirrus smoker 

Realistically...  ?  there's nothing wrong with keeping the higher ends down.

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wait you aren't locking in that run? I thought you loved the NAM

I love the NAM like i love getting poked in the eye with a knitting needle while getting a colonoscopy fully lucid while someone tickles my feet with a feather and lights my hair on fire. Nothing better.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Take a compromise at the moment between Euro and GFS, and it’s a nice little event for Sunday.  I agree with Luke…3-6” sounds good at the moment. 

Nobody is getting 6” unless trends reverse. Look at what every storm has done as we approach go time this year 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets get the NAM whiff.

I’m numb at this point. This looked like it could have been a legit event a few days ago.

 

We just can’t have nice things here these days 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, Hazey said:

There is some kind of phasing issues going. Not the first time this winter that a s/w has trouble amplifying as it gets closer to go time. Maybe that fast compressed flow is more of a hinderance than fist thought. Kinda puts red flags on the next week threats too. 

kind of aggravating ... because it has hindered matters without any room for doubt, for years now ...  This is not the first discussion over this. Forget that, we should all have PHD's in this awareness just by proximity to life in this shit-show by now.   Plus, some of us here have clearly been wasting our time instructing this stuff for the course. 

I'm a pissy cynic about it... but I cannot help but see it sometimes that people filter out/elide/ignore contents if/when they don't sense that it is what they want.  It's a good thing no one's getting graded in here. HAHAHA.

Anyway,   yeah ... the whole pattern has the caution flag baked in for compression and fast flow limiting curvature and zonal forcing circumstances.  yup. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I love the NAM like i love getting poked in the eye with a knitting needle while getting a colonoscopy fully lucid while someone tickles my feet with a feather and lights my hair on fire. Nothing better.

I'm honestly not worried.. I like where we stand, hopefully euro and gfs aren't off their rockers and we get a nice steady 4-8"+ , I'd rather be on northern side of the qpf max on a system like this.. 

[Snowcrazed71]

I have to laugh. Gil on wtnh saying snow to freezing rain Saturday night ending Sunday morning. Where the met on wvit channel 4 saying mostly snow. He's throwing out a possibility of 5 to 9 inches? It's just funny how they're both so different in what they're saying. One used the Euro when he was going over his blog, while the other used the GFS. Probably will be a blend of the two. I just love getting the take on different Met's forecasts. And they're different!!

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

lmao - congrats south shore LI .. just imagine if this one whiffs New England .. I actually like having NAM where it is now.. 

I'm not worried unless the GFS slides south. The vort is pretty far north....look what a nrn vort did to this thing today/ All the forcing will be well to the north I think.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I have to laugh. Gil on wtnh saying snow to freezing rain Saturday night ending Sunday morning. Where the met on wvit channel 4 saying mostly snow. He's throwing out a possibility of 5 to 9 inches? It's just funny how they're both so different in what they're saying. One used the Euro when he was going over his blog, while the other used the GFS. Probably will be a blend of the two. I just love getting the take on different Met's forecasts. And they're different!!

Even the south and colder 6z euro has this ending as freezing drizzle in southern CT

[ORH_wxman]

You're not whiffing with a vort tracking over our fannies...what is going on in here?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You're not whiffing with a vort tracking over our fannies...what is going on in here?

just having fun with the NAM, GEFS EPS have been very consistent.. 

[dryslot]

There is a limit to how far south this can go.