Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[mahk_webstah]

Wpc honking hard for heavy snow Sunday of more than 8” from about the mass ct border up to the southern whites.   Looks like a fast moving hard hitting storm 

[mahk_webstah]

GYX brings good news for many up here and further south

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long Term Update...Main focus for the update was to update this
weekend`s snow event. Overall, guidance has slowly trended
south with QPF max as the forecast low`s center passes south of
Long Island and out into the open Atlantic. It is progressive,
but pulls with it a decent plume of moisture. There continues to
be a good signal for higher snow ratios with a deep snow growth
layer and lift within it. Finer details will come into view,
but will need to watch for banding that lingers on the north
side of the storm that could enhance snowfall amounts across the
southern to central part of the CWA. Timing did shift later
with recent guidance potentially not beginning until later
Saturday evening through the overnight hours into Sunday
morning.

[CoastalWx]

Looks good here for low end warning I think. 

[wx2fish]

Flirting with a pretty thick DGZ on the soundings. Northern side is probably high ratio fluff in this one 

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks good here for low end warning I think. 

Structure of system good for many.  Northern band and good ratios but south enough for many. 6-10er in general it seems

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Flirting with a pretty thick DGZ on the soundings. Northern side is probably high ratio fluff in this one 

We prefer fluff to sand

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Flirting with a pretty thick DGZ on the soundings. Northern side is probably high ratio fluff in this one 

Yeah wouldn’t surprise me if the northern fronto band produces some weenie totals even if QPF stays under an inch. Like a foot on 0.75 or something. 

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks good here for low end warning I think. 

Cold, decent moisture and lift. We snow.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6z euro is nice , ticked south with a very heavy 3 hour thump around midnight Saturday night.. the thump has faded in every storm for a few years now let’s see if this one holds. 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS really looked good for much of SNE and CNE

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Perfect

[Go Kart Mozart]

41 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Flirting with a pretty thick DGZ on the soundings. Northern side is probably high ratio fluff in this one 

Academic question Fish:

Is a thick DGZ preferred over a thin one?  I though a thin DGZ meant that the air is rising quickly through the -12 to -17 region?

 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Wpc honking hard for heavy snow Sunday of more than 8” from about the mass ct border up to the southern whites.   Looks like a fast moving hard hitting storm 

Yeah they're saying now for most of inland Connecticut now that they're looking at maybe 5 to 9 in for Saturday night into Sunday morning. The office said it looks like it would stay mostly snow even at the shoreline with a little mix in the beginning.

[ineedsnow]

6z Euro came south a bit

[UnitedWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

6z Euro came south a bit

The way the former King performs these days you can mark me safe from being surprised

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z Euro came south a bit

Not too much I hope.  I like where it is.  But it will oscillate and maybe nudge north in the end.

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Not too much I hope.  I like where it is.  But it will oscillate and maybe nudge north in the end.

6z Eps came south a good amount 

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Academic question Fish:

Is a thick DGZ preferred over a thin one?  I though a thin DGZ meant that the air is rising quickly through the -12 to -17 region?

 

The thickness of the DGZ is just how deep the layer of -10c to -18c air is. It has nothing to do with how fast the air is rising through that layer. If you have something like -10C at 925mb and -18C up at 700mb, then that is a very thick DGZ. If that layer is confined to a narrower zone, like say, 800mb to 700mb, then it is going to be harder to get the best lift to line up with the DGZ. 

[wx2fish]

20 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Academic question Fish:

Is a thick DGZ preferred over a thin one?  I though a thin DGZ meant that the air is rising quickly through the -12 to -17 region?

 

You want the DGZ saturated with lift through that layer, so a thicker DGZ provides a much larger favorable window. Basically just increases the size of the target.

[SJonesWX]

10 hours ago, FXWX said:

Going to inquire a second time.  Did not see any responses the first time.  Is anyone familiar how well roads are maintained from southern NH into the Waterville Valley area during or after winter weather events.  I need to head into that area from CT once the storm starts to wind down.  Not at all familiar with that area?

Ask @dendrite how 93 can be during weather, he commutes to/from CON on 93. it can be a disaster during storms, but usually gets cleaned up quickly.

and like someone else said, take 495 to rt 3. Rt 3 becomes the Everett Turnpike in Nashua, the merges with I-93 in Hooksett.

God help you if you get stuck behind the line of plows going 25mph.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

Ask @dendrite how 93 can be during weather, he commutes to/from CON on 93. it can be a disaster during storms, but usually gets cleaned up quickly.

and like someone else said, take 495 to rt 3. Rt 3 becomes the Everett Turnpike in Nashua, the merges with I-93 in Hooksett.

God help you if you get stuck behind the line of plows going 25mph.

All this time I thought dendy just plays with cocks all day. 

[NoCORH4L]

10 hours ago, FXWX said:

Going to inquire a second time.  Did not see any responses the first time.  Is anyone familiar how well roads are maintained from southern NH into the Waterville Valley area during or after winter weather events.  I need to head into that area from CT once the storm starts to wind down.  Not at all familiar with that area?

I'll be coming back 93/3 on Sunday from Campton area as well, with a snowmobile trailer, I think we're in for a slow ride if we leave in the morning. Might be best to wait until the afternoon. NH Dot and mass don't do a good job with the highways, but still will be slow. 

[dryslot]

Hopefully we start seeing these more amp solutions come back as we start to go thru the next several cycles over the next couple days or so, Models have weakened the primary in the ohio valley and then a weak secondary forms south of LI heading ENE over the atlantic.

[tunafish]

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Hopefully we start seeing these more amp solutions come back as we start to go thru the next several cycles over the next couple days or so, Models have weakened the primary in the ohio valley and then a weak secondary forms south of LI heading ENE over the atlantic.

What would cause the reversal?  The trend has been for a weaker piece of energy over the OV, and is coming in flatter, too (I think)?  Will a stronger primary be enough to amp it, or do we need the trough out west to speed up as well?  Looked further east a few days ago, over CO, but now seems to be hanging back over the PAC NW.  Not sure if that as an impact, too.

[mahk_webstah]

25 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Hopefully we start seeing these more amp solutions come back as we start to go thru the next several cycles over the next couple days or so, Models have weakened the primary in the ohio valley and then a weak secondary forms south of LI heading ENE over the atlantic.

Yeah I don’t want hopes hinging on a lucky far north band

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, tunafish said:

What would cause the reversal?  The trend has been for a weaker piece of energy over the OV, and is coming in flatter, too (I think)?  Will a stronger primary be enough to amp it, or do we need the trough out west to speed up as well?  Looked further east a few days ago, over CO, but now seems to be hanging back over the PAC NW.  Not sure if that as an impact, too.

Yes, weaker and flatter right now, If you get a stronger primary then it will track further north, A few days back, It was getting into upstate NY,  It had the secondary tracking over LI or just north of there, With the trajectory of this moving ENE, We would need it to shift further north but that would come at others expense.

[dryslot]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Yeah I don’t want hopes hinging on a lucky far north band

Northern fringe right now with the current track.

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Northern fringe right now with the current track.

The pope thinks it’s going to be south

[Go Kart Mozart]

55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The thickness of the DGZ is just how deep the layer of -10c to -18c air is. It has nothing to do with how fast the air is rising through that layer. If you have something like -10C at 925mb and -18C up at 700mb, then that is a very thick DGZ. If that layer is confined to a narrower zone, like say, 800mb to 700mb, then it is going to be harder to get the best lift to line up with the DGZ. 

Yes, but when you get steep lapse rates, doesn't that mean the air is cooling with height?  So it would seem a narrow DGZ means the air goes from -12 to -17 (or -10 to -18, whatever the DGZ definition is) quickly, representing rapid lift through the column.

I know my reasoning is way off here, just trying to figure this out.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Yes, but when you get steep lapse rates, doesn't that mean the air is cooling with height?  So it would seem a narrow DGZ means the air goes from -12 to -17 (or -10 to -18, whatever the DGZ definition is) quickly, representing rapid lift through the column.

I know my reasoning is way off here, just trying to figure this out.

Steep lapse rates can greatly enhance lift via instability but it’s not the cause of it. The cause of the lift in this storm is warm air advection (isentropic lift)…warm air is being pushed into colder/denser air and causing it to rise over the top of it. If that saturated warmer air is forced to rise through a thick level of DGZ, then the snow growth is likely to be better than if it was a very thin layer of DGZ. 
 

In addition, a thin DGZ doesn’t have to be because of steep lapse rates, it can be due to an elevated warm layer too. Now you have the opposite of steep lapse rates.