Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[mahk_webstah]

27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No beer at all…I realize the thread, but the way the post was worded, I found it to be a little vague, and it almost sounded like they might have been referring to the threat after the 9th.  So just wanted to make sure.  Folks have posted comments in the wrong thread many times before…so I thought I’d ask. 

It is the most perfect thread title ever. Perfect. Everyone knows and they’re saying there’s never been one as great as this one.

[ORH_wxman]

18z OP euro is still pretty amped. It’s a good thump before mixing but def more amped than the ensembles. 

[ORH_wxman]

18z op vs 18z EPS…pretty decent match actually as 18z EPS amped up a little bit from 12z …OP still on the stronger side but not by a ridiculous amount…this one def has more dynamics than Thursday.  

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z op vs 18z EPS…pretty decent match actually as 18z EPS amped up a little bit from 12z …OP still on the stronger side but not by a ridiculous amount…this one def has more dynamics than Thursday.  

 

That’s not a pretty look for SOP 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

It is the most perfect thread title ever. Perfect. Everyone knows and they’re saying there’s never been one as great as this one.

Well it beats any of Tip's. Those never amount to Jack.

[FXWX]

Off topic but related to the weekend storm.  Feel free to message me if you want to reply and keep this thread less cluttered.  I have to be at youth hockey tournament this weekend at Waterville Valley resort.  Looking for some feedback from anyone familiar with that area as it relates to how well roads are maintained?  Probably heading up Friday which shouldn't be an issue... Returning Sunday with exit time determined by storm ending timing.  In general, since I have no familiarity with that area was hoping to get some informative feedback about the road history in that area?  Thanks 

[brooklynwx99]

comparing the two setups, this one is more favorable for a more potent storm. lower downstream heights in SE Canada help foster coastal redevelopment and a better thump

[ineedsnow]

GFS gone wild for Sunday

[tunafish]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS gone wild for Sunday

Juiced

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Juiced

CMC also

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC also

Colder

[MJO812]

[The 4 Seasons]

Very good trends for the 9th event on the GFS/GEM/ICON and lots of potential for the 12-14th period. Ensembles still very bullish on that period. 

[weathafella]

Euro too. Super Bowl party but timing of system exit should allow us to show up.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro suite still a bit more amped than other guidance for this threat. Still a nice front end but def more mixing/ptype issues further north. 

[Kitz Craver]

GFS still cold and wild. Looks really solid

[mahk_webstah]

A nice tidbit from GYX.  When banding is mentioned it’s usually a good thing.

Guidance is in good agreement for the next system this weekend,
and have raised PoPs to go along with this. Thing to watch as
this event nears the mid to near term later is where banding may
develop to possibly enhance snowfall. For now the fgen band
appears to progress north, but if the storm takes a flatter
track, this may linger or pivot a bit longer. Overall, ensembles
show good confidence in another measurable snow event, but
amounts will need refinement over the coming days.

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

A nice tidbit from GYX.  When banding is mentioned it’s usually a good thing.

Guidance is in good agreement for the next system this weekend,
and have raised PoPs to go along with this. Thing to watch as
this event nears the mid to near term later is where banding may
develop to possibly enhance snowfall. For now the fgen band
appears to progress north, but if the storm takes a flatter
track, this may linger or pivot a bit longer. Overall, ensembles
show good confidence in another measurable snow event, but
amounts will need refinement over the coming days.

The debate begins as to whether to stay in Mass or head up to Maine. I'm inclined to try Maine at this juncture.

[ineedsnow]

6z EPS slightly south

[UnitedWx]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

The debate begins as to whether to stay in Mass or head up to Maine. I'm inclined to try Maine at this juncture.

My gut is I'd rather be in Mass for this weekend... at least western/ central

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z EPS slightly south

Yes, EPS consistently south and colder than op

[ORH_wxman]

06z euro pretty nice thump for BOS-ORH. 6-7” or so. 

[Prismshine Productions]

06z euro pretty nice thump for BOS-ORH. 6-7” or so. 

It looks ok NoP? No mix right?

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[wx2fish]

22 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

It looks ok NoP? No mix right?

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

6z euro is juiced, .75-1" as snow for SNH/SVT

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

6z euro is juiced, .75-1" as snow for SNH/SVT

06z EPS tickled a little colder and a little weaker with primary into NY state…slight faster transfer. N of pike to central NH looks excellent on the mean…but still nice thump for even S of pike folks. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Overnighties look like a low end warning event ...

I like a either a 60/40 or almost 50/50 blend of the 00z GEFs with the 00Z EPS

The operational versions don't actually vary hugely - but two aspects about monitoring guidance... it is both easy to be 'overly' discrete about minute difference as though they mean more than they do (heh, call it lens biasing ), but also, some of that is still needed in a needle pattern.  So how much. 

I feel the 00z oper. Euro was too far N in the cold air so bumping that south looks like a GEFS/EPS blend

[Typhoon Tip]

Having said that ... one of these events may over-achieve a little over this 10 days to two weeks.  Yeah, sure ..

But some of these products look hefty for QPF given a pancaked compression of jet fields moving so fast for this guy

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Having said that ... one of these events may over-achieve a little over this 10 days to two weeks.  Yeah, sure ..

But some of these products look hefty for QPF given a pancaked compression of jet fields moving so fast for this guy

A miller B or Swfe redeveloper with nothing to slow it down is probably capped at 6-10 maybe lollies 12 I would think.

this isn’t supposed to be the season’s big storm. It’s supposed to be the first good region wide event with high-end advisories and low and warnings that opens the gate to a good stretch which probably will include one larger storm I would think or two.

[mahk_webstah]

The euro has had a strong signal for days on this. My wunderground snow forecast has always been between five and 8 inches.  Now it’s at 7.1.  The Tuesday signal has jumped around wildly between two and 8 inches.

[CoastalWx]

Let’s get this like the gfs/GEFs and get a CCB going.