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Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

mahk_webstah

By mahk_webstah,
in New England

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metagraphica
metagraphica

Gotta love this place.  

40/70 Benchmark
40/70 Benchmark

https://www.blogger.com/blog/posts/2820149554058213224  

FXWX
FXWX

It's amazing... We have multiple sh$t winters in a row, and a good chunk of this winter has sucked, and now we are entering a wonderfully looking pattern and this thread becomes a crap show.  Will eve

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Well making no changes to my forecast rom the other night after finally getting a chance to look at things closely today. Forecast soundings and bufkit look great for a good 2-3 hour period of heavy snow to get just about everyone. There is definitely room for some 7-10" totals north of the Pike but not adding an area for that. 

1377266180_snowmap.png.095d5ce9a18f0cb80aae1123c23ed6e5.png

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Nam looks weird

wtf… another run as the storm starts with a ragged broken down precip shield.. either tip is running the NAM and messing with us or it’s just  completely broken this year, never seen this before until this year, usually it’s the opposite. NAM is like a box of chocolate you never know what your are going to get 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Update on cousin’s BOS to ATL JetBlue tomorrow 7AM flight: canceled;

-she’s now flying JetBlue out of BOS ~11:20 AM and gets to JFK ~12:40PM; then changes planes and would leave JFK ~2:35PM for ATL

 So, as long as delay in leaving BOS 11:20AM not more than, say, an hour, she’d make the JFK 2:35PM flight. She may not have checked bags. If not, maybe she’d have more than hour to spare. I assume she’d have better chance to make JFK to ATL flight if no checked bags.

 No telling if JFK will have delays leaving 2:35PM Sun.

 If she misses JFK flight, she’ll just forget going to ATL and stay in NYC, where her other home is.

 Opinions about this plan?

Larry, her best bet imho is taking the train to NYC today and making the jfk flight tomorrow.  It’s more work but that is a better bet to make it to ATL tomorrow.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

wtf… another run as the storm starts with a ragged broken down precip shield.. either tip is running the NAM and messing with us or it’s just  completely broken this year, never seen this before on it usually it’s the opposite. 

Yeah...it's just odd. 12z seems to match current radar better than the new run.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

This is a terrible snipping tool job but hockey is about to come on so don't have time to illustrate this on a map but I would watch for two jack areas...one through south-central Connecticut and then up along MA/VT/NH border...these two zones may see totals push the 7-9" range. In between these two areas I wouldn't be surprised if 4-5" is more common. It's basically a quick hitting wall of snow then kind of poop....but it is going to be amazing under that wall.

image.png.31d547eea3342d32476fa741cc541f34.png

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

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Posted
Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s even worse now than it was 9 years ago 

i think its worse than when we were in collegr in the mid/late 2000s. I dont remember it being this bad, but then again that could just be ignorance and rose colored glasses... not having much else to look at besides the GFS and free EC/GEM maps.

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
Just now, CT Rain said:

lol I forgot about that. 

also why are we complaining about the NAM with this look? 

 

IMG_5507.png

It’s run to run consistency .. yes it thumps but it’s totally different every 6 hours.. GFS Euro leading up to and now the HRRR has been very consistent today .. just using that as guidance for this impressive thump coming , should be pretty fun after 9pm

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

i think its worse than when we were in collegr in the mid/late 2000s. I dont remember it being this bad, but then again that could just be ignorance and rose colored glasses... not having much else to look at besides the GFS and free EC/GEM maps.

The old ETA had some epic coups back in the day but it also had some horrific busts too. I remember the night before the Feb 2006 storm a random 06z ETA/NAM run was basically a complete whiff. It was like a 6 hour forecast too. I think it scraped us with 1-3” and maybe hit the Cape and far SE areas. It had a few other clown solutions that were just as bad along the way. But I think we forget them sometimes. 
 

The only modeling tool that I legit think was better back then for snowstorms was prob the SREFs. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

lol I forgot about that. 

also why are we complaining about the NAM with this look? 

 

IMG_5507.png

ha, we may have clicked on just about the same area lol...I saw that and was like, "woah". But damn...the NAM also wants to really drive in that drier here, if you forward that 3 hours...huge difference. I get the brunt of the snow falls before that happens but this could be critical when it comes to achieving the upper end of forecast ranges. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The comment was made very early in the run, about the very early frames being wack. Which they were

I don’t read too much into the sfc ptype stuff. Keep in mind sim radar and sfc ptype intensity won’t always line up. TT maps seem a little coarse too. 3k seemed in the ballpark with CLE radar. But there’s some convective precip and brightbanding down there so it’s tough to compare.
image.png

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

ha, we may have clicked on just about the same area lol...I saw that and was like, "woah". But damn...the NAM also wants to really drive in that drier here, if you forward that 3 hours...huge difference. I get the brunt of the snow falls before that happens but this could be critical when it comes to achieving the upper end of forecast ranges. 

All models punch the dryslot through there toward 9z. It can be your friend too…it’s aiding in that enhanced forcing. There’s really good lift H7-H5.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t read too much into the sfc ptype stuff. Keep in mind sim radar and sfc ptype intensity won’t always line up. TT maps seem a little coarse too. 3k seemed in the ballpark with CLE radar. But there’s some convective precip and brightbanding down there so it’s tough to compare.
image.png

It's like an hour behind current radar, do you think it's some kind of assimilation issue with something that they do with the off runs?

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