Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[Go Kart Mozart]

May have already been mentioned, but the Canucks are solidly all-snow down here.  BTW, does anyone else hate this thread title?

[SJonesWX]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea that is true on ratios. Will see. Nashua on East could maximize the ratio aspect. I could see that. 

Several days ago I forecasted 5-8” for this area (MHT/ASH/CON).

what’s your forecast for that area?

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Fuck that storm to hell

1/8 vis and puking aggregates while my wife suffers through birth and I stare out the window at Hartford Hospital. 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I like my men More manly

Ok? 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ok? 

How do you like your men?

[JC-CT]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

1/8 vis and puking aggregates while my wife suffers through birth and I stare out the window at Hartford Hospital. 

Congrats!

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

Several days ago I forecasted 5-8” for this area (MHT/ASH/CON).

what’s your forecast for that area?

3-5”. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, JC-CT said:

How do you like your men?

 

[dendrite]

Just now, jbenedet said:

3-5”. 

Good luck

[Prismshine Productions]

That storm genuinely pissed me off... Got skunked under a dry slot and got zilch, only to get 2" two days later for my only snow last February

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Good luck

Let's call it 15:1 average SLR there, that's going less than .33" QPF on the high side, 0.20" on the low side.

71% of the ensemble members are 0.5" or more QPF. Gimme the over.

[Kitz Craver]

I like the parting gift some of the recent model runs are picking up on, some moisture hanging around

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I like the parting gift some of the recent model runs are picking up on, some moisture hanging around

Yup. Snows into midday even in CT

Grab another 1-3”

 

[jbenedet]

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Let's call it 15:1 average SLR there, that's going less than .33" QPF on the high side, 0.20" on the low side.

71% of the ensemble members are 0.5" or more QPF. Gimme the over.

.33 LE sounds about right to me. 15:1 is on high side up here for ratios. You’re good on lack of compaction but weak on lift, in DGZ, as I see it. 

That’s 5” at high side; 4” if you use 12/13:1

Also why is the 29% portion wrong? Any reasoning? 

[WinterWolf]

Regarding the name of this thread…what is/are Iggles?  I have Never heard that word before? 

[SJonesWX]

26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

3-5”. 

good luck. Verification tomorrow

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Regarding the name of this thread…what is/are Iggles?  I have Never heard that word before? 

The Eagles. He’s from Philly and will see KC dub ya 

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Regarding the name of this thread…what is/are Iggles?  I have Never heard that word before? 

Yeah, this thread title has pissed me off from day 1.

[UnitedWx]

31 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

How do you like your men?

Same as you apparently

[Kitz Craver]

Being a Giants fan it’s triggering and I feel like I don’t have a safe space. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Eagles. He’s from Philly and will see KC dub ya 

Lol ok…that makes sense now. 

[jbenedet]

The CMC/RGEM is still with the Euro AI. 
 

There hasn’t been a capitulation (yet). 

[jbenedet]

RGEM surface warm bias but one of the coldest pieces of guidance for tomorrow

 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

.33 LE sounds about right to me. 15:1 is on high side up here for ratios. You’re good on lack of compaction but weak on lift, in DGZ, as I see it. 

That’s 5” at high side; 4” if you use 12/13:1

Also why is the 29% portion wrong? Any reasoning? 

There are a few reasons why I prefer the over on QPF.

I'm seeing soundings supportive of around a 15:1 average in the area (200-300 mb deep could support upwards of 20:1 at times). There's a decent crosshair signature around 06z (estimating between PSM and LCI soundings), that's pretty good for 6" snow. The WAA forcing is strong and displaced north of QPF max, which is a red flag that some deterministic guidance may not have things far enough north (which is not uncommon for a high bias on QPF on the equatorward side of systems).

The only pause I would have is if there is a messenger shuffle south today. That would introduce a DGZ that is starting to get a bit high in the column for ideal ratios, that's why my totals drop off sharper to the north. I'm not sure I've seen anything significant enough to warrant concerns where I have warnings up.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

We take all 12z guidance today, just toss NAM's please .. About as good as you can get for a widespread warning for the entire forum sans extreme NNE

[jbenedet]

The HRRR qpf output looks much more like CMC/Euro AI. 
 

Interesting battle. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The HRRR qpf output

12z?

[Spanks45]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We take all 12z guidance today, just toss NAM's please .. About as good as you can get for a widespread warning for the entire forum sans extreme NNE

I will certainly take the 12z GFS....

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

I will certainly take the 12z GFS....

GFS and HRRR blend for $100 please.. HRRR is absolutely wild easily 2" rates for like 2-3 hours.. 

[wkd]

56 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

1/8 vis and puking aggregates while my wife suffers through birth and I stare out the window at Hartford Hospital. 

Your first?