Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it looks that way to me too. Maybe extreme SW CT in like the Greenwich/Stamford area has some legit taint during the heaviest stuff but I think northeast of there is good with snow during the heavy stuff. 

Yea down by the water along 95 and to the merritt, sure. Up along 84 though, if it taints it’s NBD. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Like the heavier echoes are already east so not missing out on much anyway:

 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it looks that way to me too. Maybe extreme SW CT in like the Greenwich/Stamford area has some legit taint during the heaviest stuff but I think northeast of there is good with snow during the heavy stuff. 

Ya I think Runnaway and Spanks are good this is more for my backyard and SW.. I’m right on Farirfield county line in central New Haven County.  Everywhere NE of me looks great 

[dendrite]

This would be fun for a few hours overnight.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's advection from DAW though.

All those candles at the altar advecting heat SW.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea down by the water along 95 and to the merritt, sure. Up along 84 though, if it taints it’s NBD. 

Loving how thumpy hrrr is and it’s cold 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Some guidance has a nice band continuing north of the dryslot.. like gfs and NAM 12km 

 

Gotchya. I’m not ruling it out but not sweating it either.
 

The Chair’s leaned back, feet up…with a bag of gummies within reach. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

Ya I think Runnaway and Spanks are good this is more for my backyard and SW.. I’m right on Farirfield county line in central New Haven County.  Everywhere NE of me looks great 

I always thought you were further north near the Oxford line. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Loving how thumpy hrrr is and it’s cold 

It’s nice to have an event where the majority of the forum can enjoy a good snow.  The last few years have been ranging from naked high 5s and nipple lows to rain and violent outbursts. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I always thought you were further north near the Oxford line. 

I’m on the SE Oxford line .. SW Seymour 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I always thought you were further north near the Oxford line. 

I feel like he’s always in a good spot. Does decent in snow, and tstms.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I feel like he’s always in a good spot. Does decent in snow, and tstms.

We do tstorms and floods really well around here.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We do tstorms and floods really well around here.

I’m the blue Seymour 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It's so funny how Kevin averages like 30%+ more snow than me but so often he wants the snow that I get

You think you’ll get more? 

[mahk_webstah]

59 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We’ll see how 12z goes, but right now I’d lean on the best fronto being MHT to FIT. It’s close enough to keep the weenie hope up here. I’d like a little bump north this morn.

Well, I respect your local knowledge. I know it comes up here more often than not, but they deserve it too.

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You think you’ll get more? 

More manly

[CT Rain]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My daughter goes “I hate our yard. It’s the meltiest yard in the neighborhood.” LOL. 

Man, you've ruined your kids lol

[CT Rain]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it looks that way to me too. Maybe extreme SW CT in like the Greenwich/Stamford area has some legit taint during the heaviest stuff but I think northeast of there is good with snow during the heavy stuff. 

Yeah it looks fine to me as well. Maybe some snow grains/sleet pellets once we dry out in the SGZ but the good stuff is probably over by 6z/7z for HVN and OXC. 

[jbenedet]

I still don’t buy the .5- 75” qpf contours into a chunk of NNE. Seems way to generous
 

This also looks tucky. Classic cold tuck setup that guidance ain’t catching until nowcast. It’s going to yield colder throughout but I also think that will intensify the snow accumulation gradient with highest amount south of pike and much less when you get MA/NH border. The cold tuck will maximize the snow potential for you guys in the south. congrats.
 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I still don’t buy the .5- 75” qpf contours into a chunk of NNE. Seems way to generous
 

This also looks tucky. Classic cold tuck setup that guidance ain’t catching until nowcast. It’s going to yield colder throughout but I also think that will intensify the snow accumulation gradient with highest amount south of pike and much less when you get MA/NH border. The cold tuck will maximize the snow potential for you guys in the south. congrats.
 

 

Thanks

[rimetree]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I still don’t buy the .5- 75” qpf contours into a chunk of NNE. Seems way to generous
 

This also looks tucky. Classic cold tuck setup that guidance ain’t catching until nowcast. It’s going to yield colder throughout but I also think that will intensify the snow accumulation gradient with highest amount south of pike and much less when you get MA/NH border. The cold tuck will maximize the snow potential for you guys in the south. congrats.
 

 

I bought it already. Expecting 8" here.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I still don’t buy the .5- 75” qpf contours into a chunk of NNE. Seems way to generous
 

This also looks tucky. Classic cold tuck setup that guidance ain’t catching until nowcast. It’s going to yield colder throughout but I also think that will intensify the snow accumulation gradient with highest amount south of pike and much less when you get MA/NH border. The cold tuck will maximize the snow potential for you guys in the south. congrats.
 

 

Fluff job and mid level goodies will juice up SNH totals.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well, I respect your local knowledge. I know it comes up here more often than not, but they deserve it too.

Well the 12z NAM was pretty good up here. But the mid-level fronto just depends on the system track...it's not like we're really geographically favored over them climatologically in a system like this. I'd like to see the euro have a few weenie hours up here after midnight.

[CoastalWx]

Actually will be a nice day in mid 30s. 

[jbenedet]

The 6z Euro AI should be analyzed and weighed. I think the evolution and track makes a lot of physical sense given the tuck and lack of dynamics with this. 
 

That said I do think it’s qpf is too dry for points SOP. 7” mean is a good bet there.

[moneypitmike]

Solid 10:1 NAM map.  Glad I stayed at PIT1.

 

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Fluff job and mid level goodies will juice up SNH totals.

Yea that is true on ratios. Will see. Nashua on East could maximize the ratio aspect. I could see that. 

[CoastalWx]

I’m not a fan of the AI QPF overall. Not sure what the grid resolution is or it’s just too smoothed?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not a fan of the AI QPF overall. Not sure what the grid resolution is or it’s just too smoothed?

It's definitely lower res than the OP

[JC-CT]

Chatgpt says 28km. 70% chance it's right, 30% chance it's made up

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not a fan of the AI QPF overall. Not sure what the grid resolution is or it’s just too smoothed?

Yeah it always looks like a d5 ensemble mean and misses the details. I'd probably trust its QPF stuff more for the mid range.