Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[Damage In Tolland]

Some nice hang back tomorrow moving for the region 

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr getting a clue.

[CoastalWx]

I like the look here in the morning.  Nice flow off the water. 

[mahk_webstah]

43 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I could buy the double banded look to the jackpots. The HRRR and 12km NAM both kind of have it that way.

Over my years of living up here, I have seen that when modeling consistently shows an enhanced band up this way it almost always happens. And it almost always surprises and delights me. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with double digits here.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr getting a clue.

solid jump south

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I like the look here in the morning.  Nice flow off the water. 

What are you forecasting for amounts other areas than having Ray jack ?

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that would make a lot more sense. I try to forget that storm up here. 

I have PTSD from that. 

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wasn’t raising flags, but I do think that SNH may do best with fluff factor and mid level lift. But it’s not like they get 15” and the rest of us get 5”.

15 and 8?is okay

[HoarfrostHubb]

Still 2 zones on the HRRR.  

[CoastalWx]

Moregarbage should post the 12z

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Still 2 zones on the HRRR.  

Looks uniform to me?

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah honestly I think I can count on one hand how many times I’ve actually seen ZR/FZDZ here when the entire column is below freezing. It usually has to be warmer than like -3C or -4C and often the saturated zone is very narrow and low to the ground…like it dries out above 900-850 or so.

Anytime I’m seeing ptype algorithms try to screw around with saturated columns up to 750 and -5C and -6C temps…tossed. Always ends up as just cruddy snow growth. 

I believe the HRRR is still using the Thompson microphysics scheme for ptype. So it basically is taking a fraction of snow to all accumulated precip that hour and then looking at surface temp for rain vs freezing rain. 

In this case, I would guess that there is minimal or no snow, so the ptype kicks it over to liquid and because it's below freezing it spits out FZRA.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What are you forecasting for amounts other areas than having Ray jack ?

I think 5-8 region wide with maybe a few areas getting more. Could be a few 10 spots maybe.

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Over my years of living up here, I have seen that when modeling consistently shows an enhanced band up this way it almost always happens. And it almost always surprises and delights me. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with double digits here.

There is a huge slug of 700 mb WAA induced f-gen (NAM slightly farther north than GFS/Euro) so I don't see how there isn't a nice dump somewhere over the southern half of NH.

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

15 and 8?is okay

We’ll see how 12z goes, but right now I’d lean on the best fronto being MHT to FIT. It’s close enough to keep the weenie hope up here. I’d like a little bump north this morn.

[CoastalWx]

Fuck that storm to hell

[HoarfrostHubb]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks uniform to me?

Just going by weenie snow maps. 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fuck that storm to hell

"December 2012"

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fuck that storm to hell

..ya you got boned on that one bad…I felt bad for you there.  CT stole everybody’s snow with that one.  What a stupid storm that was. Forecast 24 hrs before goes down from a major storm,  to 1-2” lol.  Then we get a foot plus. Gigantic Model fail.  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

..ya you got boned on that one bad…I felt bad for you there.  CT stole everybody’s snow with that one.  What stupid storm that was. Forecast 24 hrs before goes down from a major storm,  to 1-2” lol.  Then we get a foot plus. Gigantic Model fail.  

It wasn’t just CT. That literally stuck its middle finger up my fanny as it pounded paste to my south and over the cape. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We’ll see how 12z goes, but right now I’d lean on the best fronto being MHT to FIT. It’s close enough to keep the weenie hope up here. I’d like a little bump north this morn.

Chill out dickwad.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It wasn’t just CT. That literally stuck its middle finger up my fanny as it pounded paste to my south and over the cape. 

Ya that’s true…you got raped by your neighbors there too. Oof.  

[Bryan63]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fuck that storm to hell

We left South Shore Hospital a day early after we had our daughter because of that storm, just to get like 4" at home.

[codfishsnowman]

50 minutes ago, kdxken said:

From everyone's favorite.

That has happened here so many times. Wouldn't shock me in the least.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Bryan63 said:

We left South Shore Hospital a day early after we had our daughter because of that storm, just to get like 4" at home.

I had 1” here. I would gladly take 4 at the time lol.

[CoastalWx]

Nam looks tasty.

[Sn0waddict]

NAM seems locked in on sleeting here after about 4-5 hours of snow. Bleh.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 I would gladly take 4.

That's how you end up with another kid.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam looks tasty.

I'm so jealous.  Nothing working out down here. Uggh .

 

Enjoy