Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know people like to get underneath the flashing neon lights of a large PV disruption and finger the 'ole prostate.....but once you pass the momentary climax that represents the culmination of doing just that, there really isn't much to write home about in this neck of the woods. The hope is that something noteworthy will evolve because there is the chance, but I don't see anything imminent that drives me to the lap top.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know people like to get underneath the flashing neon lights of a large PV disruption and finger the 'ole prostate.....but once you pass the momentary climax that represents the culmination of doing just that, there really isn't much to write home about in this neck of the woods. The hope is that something noteworthy will evolve because there is the chance, but I don't see anything imminent that drives me to the lap top.

If your goal is double digits in an event, probably mostly disappointment (maybe something bigger happens late month or March)…but it could easily be a lot of 3-6” type events with some 6-10” inchers mixed in ala 2007-08/2008-09. 

[Spanks45]

Gfs has a high in a good place this run, much better thump to start...  

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If your goal is double digits in an event, probably mostly disappointment (maybe something bigger happens late month or March)…but it could easily be a lot of 3-6” type events with some 6-10” inchers mixed in ala 2007-08/2008-09. 

Thursday is garbage....maybe a few inches this weekend, but still time on that.  Again, no sense of urgency on my part. I don't regret glossing over Sunday night.

[mahk_webstah]

One of the things I watch overtime is the snow totals in the 10 day on Wunderground.   I think it’s some sort of compilation of models so it does give you a good sense of trends.  For Thursday it’s almost always been between four and 5 inches and it is still there at 4.6. For Sunday it’s gone anywhere from 5 to 7 inches and right now it’s at 5.4.
to me, this shows some caution with Sunday, however, there should still should be a solid storm. I think we will vacillate until perhaps Wednesday night or Thursday

 

What’s been interesting about next Tuesday and Wednesday, for what it’s worth, is that it suddenly has jumped to almost 7 inches From about 3 inches overnight.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Gfs has a high in a good place this run, much better thump to start...  

Yep, it is.

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep, it is.

Anchor that a bit SW and force that redevelopment towards Delaware and keep the snow longer for SNE....too much to ask? Ha

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Anchor that a bit SW and force that redevelopment towards Delaware and keep the snow longer for SNE....too much to ask? Ha

06z EPS actually had a lot of redevelopers which kind of surprised me considering the OP run was a bit uglier. Those would both enhance dynamics a bit and prolong the snow before a flip to IP/ZR. 

[mahk_webstah]

I had thought originally when I started this thread that this was a redeveloper, not just a straight warm air advection Southwest flow thing. You know, sometimes they lose the original idea, but then come back to it as it gets closer.

[SouthCoastMA]

CMC looked colder than 0z. Hopefully the euro can make a move at 12z

[UnitedWx]

Man have some of us gotten spoiled! JK, well sort of. I'm happy I get as much enjoyment from just covering the ground as I do with a 12 plus event. Give me an event like Thursday looks to be and multiply it several times and I'm ecstatic.  That's what made 1995/96 winter so special was multiple events like this, not the big ones.

[Spanks45]

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

CMC looked colder than 0z. Hopefully the euro can make a move at 12z

Both the CMC and the GFS have the high in a nicer place....

 

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS actually had a lot of redevelopers which kind of surprised me considering the OP run was a bit uglier. Those would both enhance dynamics a bit and prolong the snow before a flip to IP/ZR. 

Nice to see the GFS and CMC kind of showing that now....Still plenty of time for this to evolve into something better or worse depending on how you look at it. Well timed high would be nice for a change.

[Typhoon Tip]

To each his / her own but 3-5" glazed over with zr ... It's more than insignificant. Shear impact to society sort of validates the former notion in my mind.

Anyway, this one for the weekend:  I find it interesting that the ensemble mean of the GEFs vs the operational GFS are opposit comparing the this event in the foreground.   The 6th has routinely had the ens mean NW of the operational guidance...   Contrasting, the present ensemble mean is pretty significantly south of the operational - so the modeled circumstance in reversed. 

It's hard to determine if this is true with the Euro cluster but perhaps to some lesser degree it appears to be so per 00z. 

In any case, the GEFs move a 1000 mb low S of LI, to between the BM and CC going toward 995 mb - we've  ... or I've been comparing the 6th and the 9th as sort of twins but this GEFs behavior does have greater implication, if not hugely so ...some.