Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[WinterWolf]

And all the angst yesterday from Wiz about poor snow growth and crap rates and what not…And WPC puts that out about how efficient and prolific the rates will be.  Enjoy gentlemen. 

[OceanStWx]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And all the angst yesterday from Wiz about poor snow growth and crap rates and what not…And WPC puts that out about how efficient and prolific the rates will be.  Enjoy gentlemen. 

I wouldn't say SLR will be poor, but I wouldn't be banking prolific for most of SNE. Maybe 10ish:1 PVD to BDL, 10-15:1 around ORH, and once you get up into NH there is some potential for a 300 mb deep DGZ and SLRs could be tickling 20:1.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I wouldn't say SLR will be poor, but I wouldn't be banking prolific for most of SNE. Maybe 10ish:1 PVD to BDL, 10-15:1 around ORH, and once you get up into NH there is some potential for a 300 mb deep DGZ and SLRs could be tickling 20:1.

A shame the best snow will be falling at night.  I love going out for walks and that sort of perfect snow growth heavy snow.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

WPC discussion sounds great for many. Indeed there will be a lot of high-fiving across this whole region. 1 to 2 in./h, possibly exceeding 2 in./hr

As the parent shortwave continues to track progressively to the
east, the accompanying forcing and moisture will also pivot with
it, and secondary low pressure development is likely off of the NJ
coast late Saturday night into Sunday morning. This low will become
dominant and intensify as zonal but modestly coupled jet structures
interact with a baroclinic zone offshore. As this low deepens and
moves almost due east south of New England, it will cross near the
Benchmark (40N/70W), leading to a substantial snow event for
Upstate NY, the Poconos, and at least Southern New England (SNE),
although there remains uncertainty into how far north (or south)
the heaviest snow will spread. As the low deepens and pulls away to
the east, a renewed surge of cold air both through the
ageostrophic flow into the low and the subsequent CAA in its wake
will limit the progress of the warm nose, while dry air to the
north noted in regional soundings inhibits PWs from aggressively
lifting towards Canada. In between, an axis of heavy snow is likely
as strong WAA produces impressive 850-600mb fgen, producing strong
ascent into the DGZ. The overlap of this strong fgen with some
theta-e lapse rates approaching 0C/km suggests banding potential
from Upstate NY into SNE, and with elevated SLRs, snowfall rates of
1-2"/hr appear likely. Total snowfall will be limited by the speed
of this system as it will only snow in most areas for 12-18 hours,
but this will still result in heavy accumulations. WPC
probabilities for more than 6 inches of snow are high (>70%) from
the Mohawk Valley of NY eastward into much of MA, southern VT,
southern NH, and the southeastern tip of ME. Locally 8-12" of snow
is possible in some areas.

I think they mean southwestern tip of Maine.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

I think they mean southwestern tip of Maine.

People don’t understand how Maine is oriented.  

[moneypitmike]

54 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ill take the over for most..  NWS has 4 to 7 for the warning.. my call from yesterday morning was 6 to 9 and sticking with it

Go with your Zone.  6-10" north of the CT/RI border.  Haven't looked south of that.

I'm guessing Ray's area will walk away with the Jack.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I wouldn't say SLR will be poor, but I wouldn't be banking prolific for most of SNE. Maybe 10ish:1 PVD to BDL, 10-15:1 around ORH, and once you get up into NH there is some potential for a 300 mb deep DGZ and SLRs could be tickling 20:1.

Was just going by what WPC said in their discussion about rates in SNE.  But what you say makes sense. 

[Amos83]

I’m supposed to fly into BOS tomorrow evening. What are the chances that flight is canceled?

[ineedsnow]

not sure why the warning is for 4 to 7.. I think they bump up a bit later on

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Was just going by what WPC said in their discussion about rates in SNE.  But what you say makes sense. 

I'm on board with 1/hr for SNE, but ratios look pretty climo to me. It's the dendy band that may be pure air.

[mahk_webstah]

If it plays out the way, it looks like it will you have to give a lot of credit to the modeling, which sniffed this out more than a week ago, even the high snow ratios. This threat has barely wavered since this thread was started, and even before.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

I’m supposed to fly into BOS tomorrow evening. What are the chances that flight is canceled?

Tomorrow night should be fine, Logan handles snow well. 

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

I’m supposed to fly into BOS tomorrow evening. What are the chances that flight is canceled?

As Jerry said yesterday, it will depend on whether the prior flights get canceled. The snow will be over by noon tomorrow.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm on board with 1/hr for SNE, but ratios look pretty climo to me. It's the dendy band that may be pure air.

Probably crushed down by meatier snow Wednesday night and Thursday.  Are you guys planning to warn the public about what’s coming this week? I mean, they already may be looking at the Kuchera maps on Facebook so God knows that they think the apocalypse is here.

[CoastalWx]

Fluff factor is in NH. Hi res pelt well into CT. Still some discrepancies with precip. Seems like jack close to pelt zone and then perhaps in the fluff.

[Torch Tiger]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I mean a minimum number (on a range forecast) of 3” or 4”, not big deal in the grand scheme of things.  Is that noteworthy?

Yeah, 3-4" would be a disaster given the amount of hype

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Probably crushed down by meatier snow Wednesday night and Thursday.  Are you guys planning to warn the public about what’s coming this week? I mean, they already may be looking at the Kuchera maps on Facebook so God knows that they think the apocalypse is here.

I mean to the extent we can, yes. We're briefing partners about more snow and our long range messaging has it, but we won't be doing QPF for that event for a couple days. 

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fluff factor is in NH. Hi res pelt well into CT. Still some discrepancies with precip. Seems like jack close to pelt zone and then perhaps in the fluff.

I could buy the double banded look to the jackpots. The HRRR and 12km NAM both kind of have it that way.

[moneypitmike]

25 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

I’m supposed to fly into BOS tomorrow evening. What are the chances that flight is canceled?

Slim.

[weatherwiz]

55 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And all the angst yesterday from Wiz about poor snow growth and crap rates and what not…And WPC puts that out about how efficient and prolific the rates will be.  Enjoy gentlemen. 

What? I said same growth and rates would be great under the heaviest fronto bands (1” per hour rates) with ratios 12:1 to 15:1 and even out that in the discussion in the blog post I posted with my forecast. 
 

I said outside of this the rates and ratios could be poor or snow growth could struggle

[Prismshine Productions]

not sure why the warning is for 4 to 7.. I think they bump up a bit later on

Albany with their typical fashion gives me 8-14... Is there any model that backs that up?

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What? I said same growth and rates would be great under the heaviest fronto bands (1” per hour rates) with ratios 12:1 to 15:1 and even out that in the discussion in the blog post I posted with my forecast. 
 

I said outside of this the rates and ratios could be poor or snow growth could struggle

I didn’t see your blog post. But I remember a post yesterday here where you were very worried about snow growth and wanted to take your accumulation call down, due to that.  Just thought you were worrying and stressing a lot about poor snow growth and the like. 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Albany with their typical fashion gives me 8-14... Is there any model that backs that up?

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

I'd skip trying to do the math on those things.......the ZFP smooths out the timing.

 

Detailed forecast for

Western Windham

Today

Partly sunny with scattered snow showers this morning, then mostly cloudy this afternoon. Cold with highs in the mid 20s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 20 percent.

Tonight

Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches. Cold with lows around 18. South winds around 5 mph, becoming east after midnight. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy. Snow likely, mainly in the morning. Total snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Cold with highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percen

[HoarfrostHubb]

The 06z HRRR was very interesting.   Big bump in SNH.   Waiting for the 12z to see if that holds. 
 

I love the weenie Jack on top of my head on the 3K NAM. 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s just enjoy a nice region wide event and not obsess over jacks. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I didn’t see your blog post. But I remember a post yesterday here where you were very worried about snow growth and wanted to take your accumulation call down, due to that.  Just thought you were worrying and stressing a lot about poor snow growth and the like. 

Gotcha, I did have some worries that because the duration of those heavier rates looked relatively short whether the common totals would be more of 4-5” versus 6-7”. And Outside of the fronto bands I was a little worried we won’t accumulate efficiently. 

[The 4 Seasons]

No change. final call

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s just enjoy a nice region wide event and not obsess over jacks. 

biggest even since 2/13/14 likely here, and most of CT

[moneypitmike]

HRRR shows some taint.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

HRRR shows some taint.

it's clueless. maybe far southern areas