Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The OP NAMs are really the only guidance not giving 6”+ for our zone of SNE (basically pike region)…think we good. 

It was last storm too and was right but not sure that was dumb luck more than anything.  as some said, the extensive convection that formed in the SRN Oh Valley could have been why the QPf ended up so lousy here

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It was last storm too and was right but not sure that was dumb luck more than anything.  as some said, the extensive convection that formed in the SRN Oh Valley could have been why the QPf ended up so lousy here

Last storm was also quite a bit different in that even though the NAM was “right”, we’re talking like 1-1.5” vs 3” of snow. It wasn’t that big of a difference. In this one, it’s a little more of a gap. If the NAM comes up a couple tenths on QPF then the differences will be fairly small. So we’ll see what happens the next run or two. 

[Sn0waddict]

18z is looking juicy compared to its prior run.

[ineedsnow]

18z NAM caving

[JC-CT]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

18z NAM caving

silly nam

[wxsniss]

Just saw this from Box, sorry if posted earlier...

Are they relying on ratios for such widespread 8-12"?

Solid event incoming for a change... most guidance supports widespread 4-8", maybe some spots 8"+

[Damage In Tolland]

What  will Tjizz think?

[CoastalWx]

It's an interesting system. Almost two distinct jacks. One with real strong WAA...look at that 850 thermal gradient on the NAM. The other from mid level goodies near H7 weak WF.

[JC-CT]

lmao nam went from paltry to bonkers

[Spanks45]

Just now, JC-CT said:

lmao nam went from paltry to bonkers

That just means we finally have the good ole Nam back....it went missing for a while

[ineedsnow]

Ya that's a great thump

[dryslot]

Nam always has a happy hour run, This is it.

[CoastalWx]

It's stronger. Better inflow, conveyor belts..all of it.

[Sn0waddict]

Sniffing the sleet line verbatim but I would much rather have this than the flaccid 12z run.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's stronger. Better inflow, conveyor belts..all of it.

yeah, that's what I noticed - it's just a function of better organization. 

how or why drives that nuanced difference, unknown.. but that's why the shield looks and is denser above the polar boundary interface - stronger everything. 

It didn't go "bonkers" though.  It's better, but this is still constrained by too fast of an event - so I'd just caution folks from going too much d-drip. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

18z is looking juicy compared to its prior run.

Wild. First time that we get a legit NAMd.. We had a completely wrong head fake in December that never verified.
 

Finally just gives some reassurance that a system is not falling apart on approach. Nice to see.

I agree with Scott on two jack zones. One thing is for sure it’s going to puke heavy dendrites before the mix moved into CT. Should be fine 10pm to 2am. 

[Bryan63]

Man, hard not to get excited with some of the agreement we're seeing. I understand the apprehension from some down in this neck of the woods, but can't hate the look we're seeing.

[CoastalWx]

That is the Molly I need. Sure hope it's not at the 2 dollar drafts and 25 cent wing happy hour.

[NeonPeon]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I can’t tell you how refreshing it is not to worry about precipitation types. A touch of sleet isn’t gonna kill me, but you know what I mean.

Speak for yourself. 

[Sn0waddict]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wild. First time that we get a legit NAMd.. We had a completely wrong head fake in December that never verified.
 

Finally just gives some reassurance that a system is not falling apart on approach. Nice to see.

I agree with Scott on two jack zones. One thing is for sure it’s going to puke heavy dendrites before the mix moved into CT. Should be fine 10pm to 2am. 

Ya that’s a fun run, and one I hope comes to fruition. 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, that's what I noticed - it's just a function of better organization. 

how or why drives that nuanced difference, unknown.. but that's why the shield looks and is denser above the polar boundary interface - stronger everything. 

It didn't go "bonkers" though.  It's better, but this is still constrained by too fast of an event - so I'd just caution folks from going too much d-drip. 

It drops 1" of qpf on NYC. Just because it didn't go bonkers for route 2, sheesh scooter

[weathafella]

I pulled into Costco and fired up 18z NAM and frankly wasn’t surprised.  Big bump up in water.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wild. First time that we get a legit NAMd.. We had a completely wrong head fake in December that never verified.
 

Finally just gives some reassurance that a system is not falling apart on approach. Nice to see.

I agree with Scott on two jack zones. One thing is for sure it’s going to puke heavy dendrites before the mix moved into CT. Should be fine 10pm to 2am. 

What mix into CT?

[WinterWolf]

42 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

Looks like crap still. Quick thump and then mixed bag 

This is only 42 minutes old…and it’s already rotten and spoiled. You need some major help pal. Ya hate to see it..but your takes are trash. 

[dryslot]

GYX taking them up a bit.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Speak for yourself. 

Lets say even if it's brief sleet, you're going to get good snows. 

[weathafella]

Typhoon Tip-what is the url you use for FOUS?  Mine doesn’t work for our region anymore.  TYIA

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It drops 1" of qpf on NYC. Just because it didn't go bonkers for route 2, sheesh scooter

hahaha... word!

I don't think of bonkers as is 1" qpf I guess.  So there's some subjectivity there as to what the AMS Glossary officially codified definition is for that word.  lol 

But it's .96" there on the FOUS qpf column. 

30000537959 01925 221910 32999290   30021969247 03418 201309 42999598
36025959049 08925 151309 35989292   36064988921 13113 080511 47009803
42045975604 01020 090213 29999489   42011933520 -3423 103512 39009594
48006755203 -2516 153409 22009387   48000683119 -4324 183211 31019493

I just don't like the hyperbolic lean on everything in here.   It only adds to the insufferable mania when something works out as a decline.

[Typhoon Tip]

Here you go Jerry...  

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/albany/FOUS61

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hahaha... word!

I don't think of bonkers as is 1" qpf I guess.  So there's some subjectivity there as to what the AMS Glossary officially codified definition is for that word.  lol 

But it's .91" there on the FOUR qpf column.  I don't like the hyperbolic lean on everything in here.   It only adds to the insufferable mania when something works out as a decline.

I just meant it was the NAM being classic NAM again...not that it will verify