Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[Snowcrazed71]

What the heck's going on this morning. Everyone is freaking out. I swear this forum is bipolar LOL. Yesterday everybody was up in the sky today. They're freaking out like there's a apocalypse coming. 

Regardless of what happens, it is what it is. Taking the NAM and running with it at the moment is very silly. Not that it doesn't have any impact on what's going to happen with Saturday night's storm, but the other larger models are still looking like they are a go with the storm for our area. Let's see where the 12z shows and go from there. But man, stop the freak out people!

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What the heck's going on this morning. Everyone is freaking out. I swear this forum is bipolar LOL. Yesterday everybody was up in the sky today. They're freaking out like there's a apocalypse coming. 

Regardless of what happens, it is what it is. Taking the NAM and running with it at the moment is very silly. Not that it doesn't have any impact on what's going to happen with Saturday night's storm, but the other larger models are still looking like they are a go with the storm for our area. Let's see where the 12z shows and go from there. But man, stop the freak out people!

I’m super hype, can’t wait for this weekend. LETS GOOOOO!!!!

[CoastalWx]

The 3K NAM has a tongue of H7 fronto well ahead and north of the main low. It's solution alone doesn't seem outrageous. South of that, you are at the mercy of WAA and hence the more constricted QPF field. 

 

Is it right, not sure. But we had something like this in early Jan 2022. There was a narrow but intense band of S+ shown by the HRRR over BOS and just south. It dropped like 4" near BOS before the main stuff even came in. It was pounding here with nothing 5 miles to my south. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

One of the easiest forecasts for sne. Just say “we plow” on your maps and stop obsessing. 

[Spanks45]

Reggie looks good for SNE....nice band through central CT...doesn't look like any mixing issues either

[ineedsnow]

We ICON

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

One of the easiest forecasts for sne. Just saw “we plow” on your maps and stop obsessing. 

I agree, doesn't matter about the warm tongue, we are getting 4"+ most likely with a quick thump .. just kind of takes the higher end of 8"+ off the table if you thump then slot quick

[DavisStraight]

21 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Just because a model doesn’t show it, doesn’t mean it won’t in the future or won’t happen. I’m forecasting this weakening as we approach go time, as we’ve seen many times.

You do it with almost every storm so you're going to be right now and then because some weaken and some get stronger.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I agree, doesn't matter about the warm tongue, we are getting 4"+ regardless .. just kind of takes the higher end of 8"+ off the table 

I never thought this had 8+ potential though. 4 if we’re choking on a warm tongue and 8 if all snow with some ml fronto boost. 

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I never thought this had 8+ potential though. 4 if we’re choking on a warm tongue and 8 if all snow with some ml fronto boost. 

Im good with 4-8, just dont want another 1-2 inch job.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I never thought this had 8+ potential though. 4 if we’re choking on a warm tongue and 8 if all snow with some ml fronto boost. 

ya for 8+ all has to go right, still can I think there will be a really nice pretty wide band of heavy snow for a while , we will see how long it lasts 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I never thought this had 8+ potential though. 4 if we’re choking on a warm tongue and 8 if all snow with some ml fronto boost. 

I think a zone or two that overproduces if we get the qpf and good ratios is still on the table, but I wouldn’t forecast that right now. Nor would I forecast a reduction down to 3-6”. High res for now is still something we watch out the corner of our eye—nothing panic/bust worthy at this time imo.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

Im good with 4-8, just dont want another 1-2 inch job.

I‘ll quit the board if you get less than 4”. 

[ineedsnow]

12z ICON and 6z EURO look really close.. GFS will probably come down a bit at 12z

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think a zone or two that overproduces if we get the qpf and good ratios is still on the table, but I wouldn’t forecast that right now. Nor would I forecast a reduction down to 3-6”. High res for now is still something we watch out the corner of our eye—nothing panic/bust worthy at this time imo.

RGEM shows how to get 8"+ in CT.. BC of the direction of the storm that band has the potential to train over a large area we will see how wide and intense it gets.. There will be two bands have to watch out for the area in between both bands, will be a relative min .. 

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ya for 8+ all has to go right, still can I think there will be a really nice pretty wide band of heavy snow for a while , we will see how long it lasts 

The Reggie shows that band well and it is right over head here....not that I'm cherry picking or anything, lol

[DavisStraight]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

The Reggie shows that band well and it is right over head here....not that I'm cherry picking or anything, lol

It even reaches up and tickles my fanny for 7.

[SnowGoose69]

The HRRR has something going on.  For example, its showing sleet in places like Detroit then you check the sounding and its -2C at the warmest anywhere

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think a zone or two that overproduces if we get the qpf and good ratios is still on the table, but I wouldn’t forecast that right now. Nor would I forecast a reduction down to 3-6”. High res for now is still something we watch out the corner of our eye—nothing panic/bust worthy at this time imo.

6z gfs bufkit certainly argues this for Connecticut looking at multiple locations. If I have energy/time later today I'll probably make a revised map and drop the 4-7 to 3-6. There probably will be some 6-7" totals though, maybe north...difficult to say because that will be tied into the H7 fronto banding. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

6z gfs bufkit certainly argues this for Connecticut looking at multiple locations. If I have energy/time later today I'll probably make a revised map and drop the 4-7 to 3-6. There probably will be some 6-7" totals though, maybe north...difficult to say because that will be tied into the H7 fronto banding. 

6 to 9 region wide. Final call 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

6z gfs bufkit certainly argues this for Connecticut looking at multiple locations. If I have energy/time later today I'll probably make a revised map and drop the 4-7 to 3-6. There probably will be some 6-7" totals though, maybe north...difficult to say because that will be tied into the H7 fronto banding. 

There could very well be some spots on the shore that underperform if there’s an earlier mix, poor snow growth, but I’m not sure that necessitates taking numbers down across the board, unless you think 6+ will be the ceiling. 

[SouthCoastMA]

This was always a safe 4-8" region wide. 

[wx2fish]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRRR has something going on.  For example, its showing sleet in places like Detroit then you check the sounding and its -2C at the warmest 

Pretty dry dgz on the hrrr soundings around dtw. Guessing that's the cause on the ptype maps

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There could very well be some spots on the shore that underperform if there’s an earlier mix, poor snow growth, but I’m not sure that necessitates taking numbers down across the board, unless you think 6+ will be the ceiling. 

IMO, 6" is the ceiling for most. Anything above 6" will be the result of getting under multiple heavier bands. I think 4-5" amounts will be the most common across the board, but those areas that get lucky will end up with the 6-7" totals but that won't be widespread, that will be confined to a specific area. 

I mean looking around any various soundings on bufkit outside of the heavier fronto band the upward vertical motion is not particularly great. Now, the DGZ may be just low enough to where that could help compensate some but when I am looking at bufkit soundings and looking at omega, coupled with the DGZ and the snowfall ratios, I am asking myself, "what is the snow growth going to look like and what will the rates be"? Under the fronto band...1" per hour is obtainable but outside of that...may be lucky to push 0.50" per hour. 

Also, look at the duration of the lower omega values into the DGZ...its an extremely small window. WAA induced snow without a stronger forcing mechanism typically does not bode well for creating dendrites which accumulate efficiently. 

[WinterWolf]

4-8” and be done. If you get 4 it’s in the range. If you get 7-8 it’s in the range. Way to over analyzing. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

4-8” and be done. If you get 4 it’s in the range. If you get 7-8 it’s in the range. Way to over analyzing. 

That's true but for those in the snow removal business or planning...that is a big difference. I am not involved in that vertical but I have a few friends who do snow removal and one will ask me for some thoughts here and there. He says when he sees ranges like 2-5" or even something like 4-8" or 5-9" it can make decision making difficult for him...planning on how many people to call in, exactly what type of equipment to use (including using plows on trucks), how much sand/salt, etc. He says the worst is the 2-5" range because that is the difference in just using shovels versus needing snow blowers and extra gas. 

[wx2fish]

Gfs looks good. 

[FXWX]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

4-8” and be done. If you get 4 it’s in the range. If you get 7-8 it’s in the range. Way to over analyzing. 

It's amazing... We have multiple sh$t winters in a row, and a good chunk of this winter has sucked, and now we are entering a wonderfully looking pattern and this thread becomes a crap show.  Will every storm be a powder-fest?  NO!  It's never been the case.  It's almost always about mixture and transition zones, jackpots or screw zones.  That's what 99% of our good winters are like.  Just enjoy the friggin pattern!!!

[SJonesWX]

51 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

i have seen this video no less than 1,000 times, and I watch the full video every single time and it still makes me laugh

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GFS would be 8"+ in northern CT several hours in the goods..