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Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

mahk_webstah

By mahk_webstah,
in New England

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metagraphica
metagraphica

Gotta love this place.  

40/70 Benchmark
40/70 Benchmark

https://www.blogger.com/blog/posts/2820149554058213224  

FXWX
FXWX

It's amazing... We have multiple sh$t winters in a row, and a good chunk of this winter has sucked, and now we are entering a wonderfully looking pattern and this thread becomes a crap show.  Will eve

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems too light unless you are assuming guidance is wrong and this will trend a solid tick south in the next 24-36h

 

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it’s Friday,  but booze this early is not healthy.

I’m expecting a 40-50% reaction or weakening in the next 36 hours 

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like sleet well past Kevin on hrrr. :lol: 

Ya I don't like that, Hi res is super warm at 750-850.. Looks like a quick thump to ice down here.. It does pound for 4 hours though.. So the part of the storm that matters will produce.. a quick 4"+ still likely before the slot to snizzle.. 

image.thumb.png.dfa063ef94c918e1db951910a99e73bd.png

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted
The GFS qpf distribution looks way too generous, north of pike given the overall Synoptics. Open frontal wave 1003 mb, very dry air mass, and weak UL vort. This isn’t an over-running setup either. euro/NAM make much more sense in this regard. 
The best forcing continues to be modeled along the south shore of CT into SE MA. 7”; locally 10” is a good mean expectation around there. I wouldn’t be worried about taint either. It’s cold; and the cold has been really flexing the past 2 weeks. North of the pike this looks more like a moderate clipper with sharp cut off, but still enough for high end advisory.
 
I’m expecting 3” here in Dover.

I don’t think the cutoff to the north will be that extreme. Northern areas could have greater banding potential with stronger mid level frontogenesis,
and along with higher SLR's could help enhance accumulations.


.
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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya I don't like that, Hi res is super warm at 750-850.. Looks like a quick thump to ice down here.. It does pound for 4 hours though.. So the part of the storm that matters will produce.. a quick 4"+ still likely before the slot to snizzle.. 

image.thumb.png.dfa063ef94c918e1db951910a99e73bd.png

Hrrr all over the map all the time at this range…toss. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, snowgeek said:


I don’t think the cutoff to the north will be that extreme. Northern areas could have greater banding potential with stronger mid level frontogenesis,
and along with higher SLR's could help enhance accumulations.


.

There will be lighter synoptic snows well north due to the vort tracking through NY state and CNE. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

The GFS qpf distribution looks way too generous, north of pike given the overall Synoptics. Open frontal wave 1003 mb, very dry air mass, and weak UL vort. This isn’t an over-running setup either. euro/NAM make much more sense in this regard. 

The best forcing continues to be modeled along the south shore of CT into SE MA. 7”; locally 10” is a good mean expectation around there. I wouldn’t be worried about taint either. It’s cold; and the cold has been really flexing the past 2 weeks. North of the pike this looks more like a moderate clipper with sharp cut off, but still enough for high end advisory.
 

I’m expecting 3” here in Dover.

Yeah, I'm not sure I disagree with this bold...  

I mentioned to Will yesterday that I thought this was 4-6" NoP and 6-8" SoP, but that could be generous by the time we get to S NH.  I'd also add that this is done in 6 hours - speed of the system and low residence time . 

However, I also wouldn't be surprised if what Scott's saying might distort things... This is going to be 20:1 under the clouds so if the DGZ doesn't then pass through some elevated warm layer, this system might "lie" about the significance of it by stack efficiency.  LOL

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya we hope that HRRR is smoking something, but the rest of guidance does change us over too after the thump, I don't think it matters too much get us the 3-5 hour thump and call it a day.. 

Agree. I made my first call floor a little conservative given the mix potential at the end in southern CT, but I think the damage is done by the time a possible changeover happens. HRRR is an outlier for now but I definitely want high res on board before being all in on slightly higher amounts. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAM looks weird, weak sauce, can't toss it though as we learned last storm 

I think the NAM coup on the last system - I snarked that the night before if in jest but  ...heh 

There are inherent limitations in these compression/fast stream patterns that we go over, and over, and over again ..., but no sooner do the models show something that's above the phenotype for those limitations, there's this elided perception that takes place.  Ha haha ..

... I guess the court yard rabble has always demonstrated a willingness to operate within the confines of restraint, huh -

I don't know. Maybe the NAM is wrong this time.  Just because there are limitations doesn't mean it can't be overcome - knowing when that is can be art.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I think the NAM coup on the last system - I snarked that night before that in jest but  ...heh 

There are inherent limitations in these compression/fast stream patterns that we go over, over and over again ..., but as soon as the models show something that's above the phenotype for those limitations there's this eliding that takes place.  Ha haha ..

... I guess the court yard rabble has always demonstrated a willingness to operate within the confines of restraint, huh -

We get too quick to toss the NAM, especially when its shows what we don't want to see. 

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