Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah, a lot of us thought that was a start to a great season...

Dec and Jan laid monster turds…but we did get a decent finish in second half of Feb and early Mar…we had several clippers/smaller events  in late Feb and even early Mar before the bigger one on 3/4. Had good snow cover for well over a month from 2/12-onward. 

It would be nice to put together a good Dec/Jan combo for once. Haven’t had that in eons. 2017-18 was prob the last time. 

[tavwtby]

17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah, a lot of us thought that was a start to a great season...

I was testing up in boxbourough, if I recall correctly that was the year of the big gas explosions in Lowell and everyone was clogging up all the area hotels, and the gas company was as well... I think it was that year.

[weatherwiz]

Well 2.5” from the other day, I didn’t get a chance to measure today but eyeballed probably about an inch (maybe 1.5”)…but I’ll call it an inch. 
 

so that’s 3.5” since Sunday. If I can pull off the 7” in my 4-7” forecast that brings me to 10.5”.

would only need 49.5” to hit my goal of 60” for this stretch by mid March  

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well 2.5” from the other day, I didn’t get a chance to measure today but eyeballed probably about an inch (maybe 1.5”)…but I’ll call it an inch. 
 

so that’s 3.5” since Sunday. If I can pull off the 7” in my 4-7” forecast that brings me to 10.5”.

would only need 59.5” to hit my goal of 60” for this stretch by mid March  

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

 

 edited 

[tavwtby]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 edited 

was gonna say, that math was blowing my mind...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Six in one half, a half a bakers dozen in the other…

[snowgeek]

NAM still paltry with precip north of coast. Come on Nammy!!


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[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

NAM still paltry with precip north of coast. Come on Nammy!!


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We need a Namming

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

NAM still paltry with precip north of coast. Come on Nammy!!


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seems precip develops way out ahead of the main low then transfers to the coastal.  and screws SNE  

also doesn't seem right

[Typhoon Tip]

This run was an improvement.  

N of priors and more QPF

[powderfreak]

20 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

NAM still paltry with precip north of coast. Come on Nammy!!


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The 3km looks like another good 0.20-0.50” snow event over a wide area.  The geographic area seeing 2-6” of snow is massive on the NAM progs.

Keep adding it up in moderate amounts every couple days… it’s a great pattern to have consistent widespread precip events in the cold sector.

[ORH_wxman]

Doubt NAM is correct anyway with that vort track. 

[snowgeek]

NAM the new Dr. No. seems to be having trouble lately. ICON precip distribution seems more “normal” haha. RGEM seems to be overdoing orographic effects.


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[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Doubt NAM is correct anyway with that vort track. 

Agreed.

Pretty good model consensus of QPF from the heavy hitters.

EURO

 

GGEM

GFS

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea. Easy forecast for sne, for a change. 

[tunafish]

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed.

Pretty good model consensus of QPF from the heavy hitters.

EURO

 

GGEM

GFS

I will gladly take .40-.50" liquid and run.

[The 4 Seasons]

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Easy forecast for sne, for a change. 

Until the hi-res stuff pulls the plug <24hrs to go and the globals slowly tick back 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Until the hi-res stuff pulls the plug <24hrs to go and the globals slowly tick back 

Ha. It’s gonna be an all snow plowable. Sit back and enjoy the show. 

[ineedsnow]

0z GFS still looks good 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Until the hi-res stuff pulls the plug <24hrs to go and the globals slowly tick back 

I mentioned this earlier, and wasn’t really kidding. Completely plausible, as we’ve seen it in almost every event so far this year 

[snowgeek]

I mentioned this earlier, and wasn’t really kidding. Completely plausible, as we’ve seen it in almost every event so far this year 

GFS ticked south. I agree, it’s a definite possibility and seems to happen a lot as of late. Compression depression.


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[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ha. It’s gonna be an all snow plowable. Sit back and enjoy the show. 

We need hits. Cutting qpf and meh’ing our way down to 2-3 at game time won’t cut it. 
 

…what have I become?

[snowgeek]

I hit 24” for the season with this past one which was my 13th storm of the season. Least than 2” average per storm. I want a big un!! So many penny’s and nickels!!


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[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We need hits. Cutting qpf and meh’ing our way down to 2-3 at game time won’t cut it. 
 

…what have I become?

Tauntonflizz. No one should be expecting more than a couple inches. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We need hits. Cutting qpf and meh’ing our way down to 2-3 at game time won’t cut it. 
 

…what have I become?

Troubled…but you’ll find your way out. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

I hit 24” for the season with this past one which was my 13th storm of the season. Least than 2” average per storm. I want a big un!! So many penny’s and nickels!!


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Any big dog this year will have some weenies sacrificed at the alter and isn't happening in a fast compressed flow.  I think we wait until mid-month for a MECS.  Not discounting this weekend but high end will be 6"-8".

[mreaves]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Troubled…but you’ll find your way out. 

Do any of them ever really find their way back?

[WxWatcher007]

43 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Tauntonflizz. No one should be expecting more than a couple inches. 

4-8 was my first call tonight. Let’s just get hits over the next week and see where we are after. 

14 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Do any of them ever really find their way back?

I don’t think folks that cancel winter should get to return to the fold like nothing happened if things go well that same season. If we have an epic latter half of winter (which I do want), I should be relentlessly harassed, trolled, and mocked.  

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

4-8 was my first call tonight. Let’s just get hits over the next week and see where we are after. 

I don’t think folks that cancel winter should get to return to the fold like nothing happened if things go well that same season. If we have an epic latter half of winter (which I do want), I should be relentlessly harassed, trolled, and mocked.  

We went 5-10 with better than 10-1 ratios  right now . Right now model qpf would support a 5-7 event across CT mostly