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Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

mahk_webstah

By mahk_webstah,
in New England

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metagraphica
metagraphica

Gotta love this place.  

40/70 Benchmark
40/70 Benchmark

https://www.blogger.com/blog/posts/2820149554058213224  

FXWX
FXWX

It's amazing... We have multiple sh$t winters in a row, and a good chunk of this winter has sucked, and now we are entering a wonderfully looking pattern and this thread becomes a crap show.  Will eve

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dryslot said:

What did they have for totals today? That time stamp was 7 am today until 7am sunday?

i know the time technically includes today, at least for eastern areas but i dont think there is an overlap on this map. they waited till this event was basically over to post this so im thinking its just Sat-sun

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He was prob comparing to 06z EPS which was def south of 00z.

yeah honestly ... I'm not seeing differences here that matter from anything when blending all.  Moving some parts around inside the average doesn't change the average, in principle.  

Still looks like a 4-6" NoP and 6-8" Sop deal, but if there is a change in future runs than I'm happy to adjust.   

One other thing, NWS may have some cross sectional jazz they're using but I'm not sure I see ( otherwise ) where 8-12" come from in this very fast moving open wave.    Some attenuation, even if only 5 to 15% is also typical in the final event approach in compression

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah honestly ... I'm not seeing differences here that matter from anything when blending all.  Moving some parts around inside the average doesn't change the average, in principle.  

Still looks like a 4-6" NoP and 6-8" Sop deal, but if there is a change in future runs than I'm happy to adjust.   

One other thing, NWS may have some cross sectional jazz they're using but I'm not sure I see ( otherwise ) where 8-12" come from in this very fast moving open wave.    Some attenuation, even if only 5 to 15% is also typical in the final event approach in compression

Agreed....EPS mean still has around 0,75" QPF all snow for BOS...def a little more amped than the OP run. Still wouldn't be surprised at a tick north inside of 48 hours given the vort track....assuming it doesn't severely attenuate, but there's not been a sign of that happening on guidance.

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Bryan63

Bryan63

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, sittingathome said:

Do we have any thoughts yet on start/end times for the weekend storm?

(Lucky me I’m supposed to fly out of Boston internationally with kids on Sunday AM).


.

I'm wondering the same but mostly because I'm smoking a ton of stuff for a birthday/super bowl party. Going to be awesome drinking outside in the snow with the smoker going.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like NAM will come north at least some on this run based on 48h....not that it's worth much yet.

It did bump north...still on the southern envelope but not as egregious as 12z. Synoptically, it actually has a really nice midlevel look from about the pike up into NH border region even though its not totally reflected on QPF.

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted

these maps and forecasts from okx and box are all over the place. if you didnt know any better or just like the general public you could get anything from 4-6", 4-7", 5-9" 8-12" for the same location! whether you click on the watch, the pc, the zone, or the 2 different maps they have. they gotta fix their messaging, its crazy.

And the watch for NYC/LI for 2-4 doesnt make sense

StormTotalSnow (1).jpg

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

these maps and forecasts from okx and box are all over the place. if you didnt know any better or just like the general public you could get anything from 4-6", 4-7", 5-9" 8-12" for the same location! whether you click on the watch, the pc, the zone, or the 2 different maps they have. they gotta fix their messaging, its crazy.

And the watch for NYC/LI for 2-4 doesnt make sense

StormTotalSnow (1).jpg

And the BOX map I posted is only through 7:00a.m on Sunday which doesn't really make sense if it'll be snowing for another 3-5 hours after then.

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tunafish

tunafish

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

these maps and forecasts from okx and box are all over the place. if you didnt know any better or just like the general public you could get anything from 4-6", 4-7", 5-9" 8-12" for the same location! whether you click on the watch, the pc, the zone, or the 2 different maps they have. they gotta fix their messaging, its crazy.

And the watch for NYC/LI for 2-4 doesnt make sense

StormTotalSnow (1).jpg

I've noticed the same with GYX.  These new maps they're using - while still having "storm specific" ones - are pretty confusing.  The timeframe the represent and ranges make little sense to me, I am sure much less so to the general public.

 

mapgen.php?office=GYX&ptype=prob_sn&summary=true&pointpreferences=GYX&product=expected_range&2025020620

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

And the BOX map I posted is only through 7:00a.m on Sunday which doesn't really make sense if it'll be snowing for another 3-5 hours after then.

Esp in eastern and southeastern areas....so you'd prob add more to those regions versus elsewhere.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

these maps and forecasts from okx and box are all over the place. if you didnt know any better or just like the general public you could get anything from 4-6", 4-7", 5-9" 8-12" for the same location! whether you click on the watch, the pc, the zone, or the 2 different maps they have. they gotta fix their messaging, its crazy.

And the watch for NYC/LI for 2-4 doesnt make sense

StormTotalSnow (1).jpg

I think they're hedging in NYC/LI because the Euro/NAM but IMO the Euro/NAM have always had issues with south biases on SWFE type storms forever, its not as bad as it once was with the NAM, the Euro has gotten worse though with this last event it oddly enough was a bit north til the final 24-36 hours.  I'd have left NYC out for now.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I think they're hedging in NYC/LI because the Euro/NAM but IMO the Euro/NAM have always had issues with south biases on SWFE type storms forever, its not as bad as it once was with the NAM, the Euro has gotten worse though with this last event it oddly enough was a bit north til the final 24-36 hours.  I'd have left NYC out for now.

I remember the NAM used to show whiffs in 2007-08 on SWFEs when it was more than 48h out. Then it would amp up and get in line quickly once we were around 36h to go. GFS usually performed very well in SWFE back then but lousy in coastals.

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