Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/8/2025 at 12:57 PM, moneypitmike said:

HRRR shows some taint.

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Seems like it’s showing mixing when soundings don’t show it. Verbatim it’s crappy snow growth. 

[CoastalWx]

Now that nape season is here, I’m all set with fluff. Give me the meat. 

[mreaves]

  On 2/8/2025 at 12:55 PM, CoastalWx said:

Let’s just enjoy a nice region wide event and not obsess over jacks. 

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Ray just flipped you off while driving the wife and kids to the airport. 

[kdxken]

From everyone's favorite.

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:02 PM, mreaves said:

Ray just flipped you off while driving the wife and kids to the airport. 

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He’s probably driving back nude as he leaves terminal E.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/8/2025 at 12:57 PM, moneypitmike said:

HRRR shows some taint.

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Fake. Look at soundings. 
 

 

[CoastalWx]

Moregarbage.

[Modfan2]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:04 PM, kdxken said:

From everyone's favorite.

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Scooter tried to raise the flags yesterday but was shrugged off as melting; congrats Dave north?

[OceanStWx]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:06 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Fake. Look at soundings. 
 

 

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I wonder if that's the HRRR trying to do FZDZ for ptype.

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/8/2025 at 12:57 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

biggest even since 2/13/14 likely here, and most of CT

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Ya last Feb was 12.5” here…we won’t beat that with this one..but it will be fun nonetheless. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:08 PM, OceanStWx said:

I wonder if that's the HRRR trying to do FZDZ for ptype.

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It does it all the time I’ve noticed when the DGZ dries out. Problem is they never seem to take into account salt nuclei which is obviously plentiful where we live on east and southeast flow in the lower midlevels. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:06 PM, Modfan2 said:

Scooter tried to raise the flags yesterday but was shrugged off as melting; congrats Dave north?

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I wasn’t raising flags, but I do think that SNH may do best with fluff factor and mid level lift. But it’s not like they get 15” and the rest of us get 5”.

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:10 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It does it all the time I’ve noticed when the DGZ dries out. Problem is they never seem to take into account salt nuclei which is obviously plentiful where we live on east and southeast flow in the lower midlevels. 

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Yeah not too worried if DGZ dries out around here. This isn’t SWFE baking powder. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/8/2025 at 12:57 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

biggest even since 2/13/14 likely here, and most of CT

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2/1/21? 1/4/18? 3/7-8/18?
 

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:06 PM, Modfan2 said:

Scooter tried to raise the flags yesterday but was shrugged off as melting; congrats Dave north?

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That guy is horrible..don’t buy the nonsense. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Would like a bit of meat with this, but I think here will be fluff. 

[JC-CT]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:12 PM, ORH_wxman said:

2/1/21? 1/4/18? 3/7-8/18?
 

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I think he meant 2/13/24

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:12 PM, ORH_wxman said:

2/1/21? 1/4/18? 3/7-8/18?
 

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I thought the same thing..I think he means Feb 13/14 of last year..?  Then the more I looked at it, I realized maybe he means last year? 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:13 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Would like a bit of meat with this, but I think here will be fluff. 

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There will be plenty of meat from Thursday’s event whether you load the pack with dense SWFE snow or it’s a lot of sleet/ZR…either way, you’ll add some beef to the pack I think anyway. Meatiest snow in this event is prob south of pike. 

[OceanStWx]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:10 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It does it all the time I’ve noticed when the DGZ dries out. Problem is they never seem to take into account salt nuclei which is obviously plentiful where we live on east and southeast flow in the lower midlevels. 

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  On 2/8/2025 at 1:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah not too worried if DGZ dries out around here. This isn’t SWFE baking powder. 

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It should bang 1"/hr before the DGZ dries out, but I'm always more inclined to go snizzle in the dry slot than FZDZ. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:13 PM, JC-CT said:

I think he meant 2/13/24

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Yeah that would make a lot more sense. I try to forget that storm up here. 

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:12 PM, ORH_wxman said:

2/1/21? 1/4/18? 3/7-8/18?
 

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typo, im living in the wrong decade.. and there would be a lot more than just that though lol. i meant 24...just 1 year

[NeonPeon]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:12 PM, WinterWolf said:

That guy is horrible..don’t buy the nonsense. 

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Wasn't the idea of dry slotting making local qpf forecasting moderately difficult something raised days ago in the actual forecast discussion by box. What is new about this?

[Sn0waddict]

  On 2/8/2025 at 12:57 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

biggest even since 2/13/14 likely here, and most of CT

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With how bad it’s been lately I genuinely believed this for like 10 seconds lol

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:16 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

typo, im living in the wrong decade.. and there would be a lot more than just though lol. i meant 24...just 1 year

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The funny thing I was listing all the bigger ones from 2014 on…and then it dawned on me, maybe he means Feb 13/14th from last year lol.  

[CoastalWx]

The OCMs are getting all cute talking about snow flake criteria. I’ve never seen that in a 5-8” event lol. Wonder why.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:14 PM, OceanStWx said:

 

It should bang 1"/hr before the DGZ dries out, but I'm always more inclined to go snizzle in the dry slot than FZDZ. 

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Yeah honestly I think I can count on one hand how many times I’ve actually seen ZR/FZDZ here when the entire column is below freezing. It usually has to be warmer than like -3C or -4C and often the saturated zone is very narrow and low to the ground…like it dries out above 900-850 or so.

Anytime I’m seeing ptype algorithms try to screw around with saturated columns up to 750 and -5C and -6C temps…tossed. Always ends up as just cruddy snow growth. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:18 PM, CoastalWx said:

The OCMs are getting all cute talking about snow flake criteria. I’ve never seen that in a 5-8” event lol. Wonder why.

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Trying to educate the public some…their bosses probably want them to do that..? Makes things sound more scientific.

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:18 PM, WinterWolf said:

The funny thing I was listing all the bigger ones from 2014 on…and then it dawned on me, maybe he means Feb 13/14th from last year lol.  

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 my bad my bad...

yeah there would be like 20 storms bigger than this since 2014. weve had a great run with a lot of 10-18" blizz, especially daytime storms...which this aint it. really hate the night ones but beggers and choosers and all that...

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:18 PM, Sn0waddict said:

With how bad it’s been lately I genuinely believed this for like 10 seconds lol

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[CoastalWx]

  On 2/8/2025 at 1:21 PM, WinterWolf said:

Trying to educate the public some…their bosses probably want them to do that..? Makes things sound more scientific.

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I get that, but the way this one guy is talking he makes sound like a non event. Just find it interesting.