Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[wx2fish]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs looks great.

Pumping out 0.75"+ for most of MA. Definitely would be some 10" lolis

[HoarfrostHubb]

Maul-ing for some

[Damage In Tolland]

Who will see a foot?!

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who will see a foot?!

That looks good for CT as well!

[tavwtby]

looks like a nice fronto band from about the pike region up to the north Mass border, expect some double digits somewhere in that area. i was hoping for some love a little more south for mby, but I'll be happy with 4-6" here, and keep the train coming

[Patrick-02540]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I pulled into Costco and fired up 18z NAM and frankly wasn’t surprised.  Big bump up in water.

Lol.  Did the same thing.  Dropped my mom off at the Costco door, then sat in the truck in lot and checked the models.  "What took you so long to park the car?  I hope you're not smoking again."  They never change.  

[Roger Smith]

40/70 (Ray) will see 8-10" ... a foot s.w. 20-40 miles? 

I'll say 6" BOS, 8" ORH, 4-6" CT. 2" se ma  and s RI

[kdxken]

Clouds moving in down here. 

 

 

[CT Rain]

Snow growth looks fantastic down here for a couple hours Saturday evening. I bet we rip 2"/hour rates for two-ish hours and then nickel and dime our way through the remainder of the overnight when the snow growth zone dries out for a bit. 

The good stuff probably like 10 or 11p for Hartford/New Haven. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Snow growth looks fantastic down here for a couple hours Saturday evening. I bet we rip 2"/hour rates for two-ish hours and then nickel and dime our way through the remainder of the overnight when the snow growth zone dries out for a bit. 

The good stuff probably like 10 or 11p for Hartford/New Haven. 

Take em up!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Did the nbc Snow Monster get repoed over the past several dead winters?

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Did the nbc Snow Monster get repoed over the past several dead winters?

Wolfie got it . Ran it off the road 

[TheSnowman]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who will see a foot?!

Me in NE Rhode Island at 350’.  

 

 

[The 4 Seasons]

No change, likely final call unless the rug gets pulled overnight or there are some major changes..

 

[wxsniss]

Been a while since we've had a no-drama significant storm...

Regionwide 6-10" would probably accurately cover almost everyone outside Cape/southcoast

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Been a while since we've had a no-drama significant storm...

Regionwide 6-10" would probably accurately cover almost everyone outside Cape/southcoast

I think even a lot of the Cape might break 6"....guess it depends how pasty it gets in the 2nd half of the storm.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think even a lot of the Cape might break 6"....guess it depends how pasty it gets in the 2nd half of the storm.

Surprised they cut back to sub warning amounts for far SE MA/RI

[NeonPeon]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets say even if it's brief sleet, you're going to get good snows. 

The box forecast has a very typical gradient of doubling snow from Newport proper to about 10 miles north of here, and that's typical. I'll still take it, but when these things show themselves across models, my experience is that my microclimate underperforms vs over performs. The bay likes to warm. I need any ptype issues out to block island to not be worried, more robust antecedent cold, and much more dynamic powerful systems than this.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

The box forecast has a very typical gradient of doubling snow from Newport proper to about 10 miles north of here, and that's typical. I'll still take it, but when these things show themselves across models, my experience is that my microclimate underperforms vs over performs. The bay likes to warm. I need any ptype issues out to block island to not be worried, more robust antecedent cold, and much more dynamic powerful systems than this.

I think surface temps would be fine. It’s more aloft. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think even a lot of the Cape might break 6"....guess it depends how pasty it gets in the 2nd half of the storm.

Yeah they may have a real good thump there first half. 
 

@SouthCoastMA might be in a decent spot in Sandwich. 

[BombsAway1288]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I was asked if a relative’s JetBlue flight leaving Logan ~7AM Sunday morning (to ATL) will likely be canceled. Anyone have a feel for this? Next JetBlue flight to ATL not til 4PM (too late). Thanks in advance.

When it comes to aircraft ops the last 5-10 years, the trend has been to outright cancel most domestics during a sizeable storm (6”+).
 

JetBlues a little different here considering BOS is one of their hubs so they should have plenty of aircraft around but ATL is a popular destination that Delta hammers from BOS so JB is less likely to make that priority flight. Combine that with possible crew issues getting to Logan and my guess is it’s canceled 

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

When it comes to aircraft ops the last 5-10 years, the trend has been to outright cancel most domestics during a sizeable storm (6”+).
 

JetBlues a little different here considering BOS is one of their hubs so they should have plenty of aircraft around but ATL is a popular destination that Delta hammers from BOS so JB is less likely to make that priority flight. Combine that with possible crew issues getting to Logan and my guess is it’s canceled 

It is hard to figure out because it is up to the carrier. They delay or cancel flights based upon a variety of things. In this situation, many times the flight might be delayed, but the reality is to prepare for it to be canceled too. 
 

Logan is one of the top airports for snow removal if not the top airport. I never worry unless it’s a large event. 

[ineedsnow]

Euro decreased a bit

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is hard to figure out because it is up to the carrier. They delay or cancel flights based upon a variety of things. In this situation, many times the flight might be delayed, but the reality is to prepare for it to be canceled too. 
 

Logan is one of the top airports for snow removal if not the top airport. I never worry unless it’s a large event. 

Yeah it usually takes a real big dog to close Logan. I’ve seen them stay open during some pretty decent storms. That said, there will be plenty of delays and some cancellations sprinkled in. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro decreased a bit

From Route 2 to SNH

[TheSnowman]

I thought this storm had ZERO chance of precipitation-type issues, and Now the NWS has the Dreaded Mega Graduate from 1” - 8”-12” go only 25 Miles Right across my Azz.  

 

This is going to be another disaster where I better go to NH vs. stay here.  

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is hard to figure out because it is up to the carrier. They delay or cancel flights based upon a variety of things. In this situation, many times the flight might be delayed, but the reality is to prepare for it to be canceled too. 
 

Logan is one of the top airports for snow removal if not the top airport. I never worry unless it’s a large event. 

Is this considered a “large event” for Logan? I assume there aren’t too many of these in an average winter.

 I just read this from BOS:

ALL GOOD SIGNALS FOR EFFICIENT SNOW   
MAKING WHICH WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES   
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (~10PM-3AM). THIS   
LEAVE A 4-5 HOUR PERIOD FOR BETTER SNOW RATES TO ACCUMULATE SNOW   
QUICKLY.   
  
HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A "SLAM DUNK" WARNING CRITERIA EVENT. THERE ARE   
SOME LIMITING FACTORS HERE. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO   
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, IT BRINGS A DRY SLOT.
 
 If heavy snow rates end at 3AM, perhaps that will allow enough time to clear a lot out 3-7AM and at least prevent cancelation?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, GaWx said:

Is this considered a “large event” for Logan? I assume there aren’t too many of these in an average winter.

 I just read this from BOS:

ALL GOOD SIGNALS FOR EFFICIENT SNOW   
MAKING WHICH WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES   
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (~10PM-3AM). THIS   
LEAVE A 4-5 HOUR PERIOD FOR BETTER SNOW RATES TO ACCUMULATE SNOW   
QUICKLY.   
  
HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A "SLAM DUNK" WARNING CRITERIA EVENT. THERE ARE   
SOME LIMITING FACTORS HERE. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO   
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, IT BRINGS A DRY SLOT.
 
 If heavy snow rates end at 3AM, perhaps that will allow enough time to clear a lot out 3-7AM and at least prevent cancelation?

Yeah they’ll plow and catch up after 3-4a. But unless it’s a complete whiteout, the crews are out at Logan. They’ve won awards for snow removal. 

[BombsAway1288]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is hard to figure out because it is up to the carrier. They delay or cancel flights based upon a variety of things. In this situation, many times the flight might be delayed, but the reality is to prepare for it to be canceled too. 
 

Logan is one of the top airports for snow removal if not the top airport. I never worry unless it’s a large event. 

 

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it usually takes a real big dog to close Logan. I’ve seen them stay open during some pretty decent storms. That said, there will be plenty of delays and some cancellations sprinkled in. 

Agreed. The days of Logan closing for a big storm are past us at this point. As you said, the snow removal technology and funding has really gotten better at Logan in the last decade.

Can’t remember the last time they actually fully shutdown due to a snowstorm, Jan 05’ maybe? or one of the storms in 2015 just cause they had so much on the ground already. Whenever it was, it will most likely not happen again 

[BombsAway1288]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Is this considered a “large event” for Logan? I assume there aren’t too many of these in an average winter.

 I just read this from BOS:

ALL GOOD SIGNALS FOR EFFICIENT SNOW   
MAKING WHICH WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES   
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (~10PM-3AM). THIS   
LEAVE A 4-5 HOUR PERIOD FOR BETTER SNOW RATES TO ACCUMULATE SNOW   
QUICKLY.   
  
HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A "SLAM DUNK" WARNING CRITERIA EVENT. THERE ARE   
SOME LIMITING FACTORS HERE. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO   
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, IT BRINGS A DRY SLOT.
 
 If heavy snow rates end at 3AM, perhaps that will allow enough time to clear a lot out 3-7AM and at least prevent cancelation?

Logan will have zero issues clearing the runways, but inevitably it’s up to the carrier as @CoastalWx said