Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

56 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Do any of them ever really find their way back?

Maybe not, maybe so. We just don’t know. 

[WinterWolf]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

4-8 was my first call tonight. Let’s just get hits over the next week and see where we are after. 

I don’t think folks that cancel winter should get to return to the fold like nothing happened if things go well that same season. If we have an epic latter half of winter (which I do want), I should be relentlessly harassed, trolled, and mocked.  

I will accept the job of cleansing you with fire, brimstone, lashings and mockery…a necessary evil that must be dealt out to those who cancel the season of our father.  You will be purified my son. 

[ineedsnow]

6z Euro came North a bit 

[CoastalWx]

Should be a nice regional event finally. 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like it could fluff pound a few hours perhaps near rt 2 into SNH in those areas worried about QPF.  And then another area with CF enhancement near KBOS and adjacent N-S shore perhaps before dawn into mid morning Sunday. 

[UnitedWx]

LOL at all the NAM talk overnight! Meanwhile everything looks on track

[UnitedWx]

When do we start a thread for next weeks threat?...

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be a nice regional event finally. 

That was my hope with this thread.  May we high 5 all day Sunday

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like it could fluff pound a few hours perhaps near rt 2 into SNH in those areas worried about QPF.  And then another area with CF enhancement near KBOS and adjacent N-S shore perhaps before dawn into mid morning Sunday. 

6z EPS mean is just over 0.6 of qpf here.. not as worried.. we increase.. ratios should be ok

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

When do we start a thread for next weeks threat?...

I keep waiting…

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

6z EPS mean is just over 0.6 of qpf here.. not as worried.. we increase.. ratios should be ok

It will be a very uniform system I think from New Bedford to the Berks.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

When do we start a thread for next weeks threat?...

for a mix?

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I keep waiting…

Nice vibe to be spoiled for choice tracking systems lately. Helps make up for last month

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

for a mix?

I was joking, but at least there's something to watch. I'm not convinced yet that the Wednesday deal misses south

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Have to watch out for mixing in Southern CT, NAM's and HRRR are very warm.. even GFS and EURO get some mixing in 

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

for a mix?

To congratulate @dendrite!

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

To congratulate @dendrite!

Are we gonna steal everybody’s snow?  I really want it to be for everyone’s 

[Snowcrazed71]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

for a mix?

C'mon man .. it's not a lock for a mix next week. Everything for both systems are still up in the air. But, yes, the possibilities are there for some mixing.

[jbenedet]

The GFS qpf distribution looks way too generous, north of pike given the overall Synoptics. Open frontal wave 1003 mb, very dry air mass, and weak UL vort. This isn’t an over-running setup either. euro/NAM make much more sense in this regard. 

The best forcing continues to be modeled along the south shore of CT into SE MA. 7”; locally 10” is a good mean expectation around there. I wouldn’t be worried about taint either. It’s cold; and the cold has been really flexing the past 2 weeks. North of the pike this looks more like a moderate clipper with sharp cut off, but still enough for high end advisory.
 

I’m expecting 3” here in Dover.

[Kitz Craver]

18 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Have to watch out for mixing in Southern CT, NAM's and HRRR are very warm.. even GFS and EURO get some mixing in 

Really? GFS looked pretty damn cold for the duration, no?

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Really? GFS looked pretty damn cold for the duration, no?

It gets close from BDR to HVN. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

24 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Really? GFS looked pretty damn cold for the duration, no?

No, warm nose at 750mb after midnight along southern 1/4 of the state 

[Ski Patroller]

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Ski Patroller said:

Thinking 6 to 8 here GFS looks good and Eps came up a bit.. hoping we can trend north a tad today

[Zeppy]

13 minutes ago, Ski Patroller said:

That MA/NH line looks very scientific 

[NeonPeon]

This is beginning to look more slushy than sleddy for the kids Sunday morning. The dreaded "a good region wide event."

[OceanStWx]

11 minutes ago, Zeppy said:

That MA/NH line looks very scientific 

I don't know what these maps are doing anymore. They are relying primarily on WPC data, but also include snow from today. 

I think it still uses the local forecast, but I'm not not sure to what extent.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Pretty uniform 2-4” some pockets of 5 or 6 in the best banding 

[Sn0waddict]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Have to watch out for mixing in Southern CT, NAM's and HRRR are very warm.. even GFS and EURO get some mixing in 

The HRRR also brings the main low all the way into NY state. It’s all on its own there lol

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty uniform 2-4” some pockets of 5 or 6 in the best banding 

Seems too light unless you are assuming guidance is wrong and this will trend a solid tick south in the next 24-36h