Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/5/2025 at 12:59 PM, mahk_webstah said:

A miller B or Swfe redeveloper with nothing to slow it down is probably capped at 6-10 maybe lollies 12 I would think.

this isn’t supposed to be the season’s big storm. It’s supposed to be the first good region wide event with high-end advisories and low and warnings that opens the gate to a good stretch which probably will include one larger storm I would think or two.

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agreed on QPF... I might even go 5-8"  but that's a like a run-of-the-mill warning event either way.  If the max amount is 7 or 9 ... meh.

As far as the 'region wide' - that depends.  There are challenges as to the areal extend in these compressed fields.   Those constraints can be overcome, but then the low residence time is also a limitation because if the given system is strong enough to extend farther out in radial coverage ... the outer reaches are both less QPF but moving fast -    threading the needles are squeeze gigs is what it comes down two. 

[SJonesWX]

Seems like a 5-8” deal up here

[CoastalWx]

GFS is really south lol. Nice solution here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:00 PM, CoastalWx said:

GFS is really south lol. Nice solution here.

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Gfs and icon with the snowiest solutions. I don’t see how anything can go wrong…

[Spanks45]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:00 PM, CoastalWx said:

GFS is really south lol. Nice solution here.

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That high once again pops up in a good spot, I think I said that yesterday at this time....hopefully it can keep that low well to our south and keep this mostly snow...Just need to get the Euro to agree.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:00 PM, CoastalWx said:

GFS is really south lol. Nice solution here.

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Little bit of CCB getting going. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:02 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs and icon with the snowiest solutions. I don’t see anything can go wrong…

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Euro has been slowly coming south too. Even so, a compromise would be pretty darn good.

[Spanks45]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:02 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs and icon with the snowiest solutions. I don’t see anything can go wrong…

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Come on Luke, such a debbie...lol....But in reality, lets see how things work out tomorrow first. Sunday is a busy kids sports day in this house, so I fully expect the worst weather conditions then.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:05 PM, Spanks45 said:

Come on Luke, such a debbie...lol....But in reality, lets see how things work out tomorrow first. Sunday is a busy kids sports day in this house, so I fully expect the worst weather conditions then.

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Lmao I get it, poor guy needs a good snowstorm desperately 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:05 PM, Spanks45 said:

Come on Luke, such a debbie...lol....But in reality, lets see how things work out tomorrow first. Sunday is a busy kids sports day in this house, so I fully expect the worst weather conditions then.

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Oh it will snow. I’m just not sold on the all snowiest solutions. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:06 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh it will snow. I’m just not sold on the all snowiest solutions. 

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None of them are particularly enthralling, but some get their rocks off on the conga line of mediocrity. 

[Spanks45]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:03 PM, CoastalWx said:

Euro has been slowly coming south too. Even so, a compromise would be pretty darn good.

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Seems like the further south the GFS is with this one, the further south next week is.....maybe we want Sunday further north?

[WinterWolf]

However, Mediocrity in a winter of Pennie’s so far, is fine for me…we add to the totals..and add a wintry vibe.  

[Kitz Craver]

Having pack around and a white landscape is a huge win for me. Could be 8” or 38”

[Spanks45]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:13 PM, WinterWolf said:

However, Mediocrity in a winter of Pennie’s so far, is fine for me…we add to the totals..and add a wintry vibe.  

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The wintry vibe is key....February has that feel to it still so nickel and dime away. March on the other hand, unless it is a big storm, I would rather just rain at that point...

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:12 PM, Spanks45 said:

Seems like the further south the GFS is with this one, the further south next week is.....maybe we want Sunday further north?

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I don't think that matters much right now. Next week is more of the interaction with s/w's off the west coast, the PV to the north and the influence of that, and the SE ridge. 

[Spanks45]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:03 PM, Spanks45 said:

That high once again pops up in a good spot, I think I said that yesterday at this time....hopefully it can keep that low well to our south and keep this mostly snow...Just need to get the Euro to agree.

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CMC has the high in a similar position...Not saying the GFS and CMC are right, but at least some consistency

[Spanks45]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:20 PM, CoastalWx said:

I don't think that matters much right now. Next week is more of the interaction with s/w's off the west coast, the PV to the north and the influence of that, and the SE ridge. 

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Good point, I have no problem being greedy and getting all 3 to work out in our favor...

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:23 PM, Spanks45 said:

Good point, I have no problem being greedy and getting all 3 to work out in our favor...

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Next week might be 2-3 systems including 1 larger one. We won't get them all. Some will whiff I think.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:00 PM, CoastalWx said:

GFS is really south lol. Nice solution here.

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4-8” on superbowl Sunday would give a nice vibe 

[DavisStraight]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:27 PM, CoastalWx said:

Next week might be 2-3 systems including 1 larger one. We won't get them all. Some will whiff I think.

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As long as we get one big one and a couple inches from any others, just like the vibe when snows on the ground and in the air.

[Typhoon Tip]

I thought the GGEM and GFS were close to identical ...

It's pretty awesome from outside looking in on this thing, considering the last 10 years of everything under the sun in this maddening field and engagement ... to ever have two models in such tightly coupled appeal at still 4 days lead time. 

We'll see what a crank-in-butt model Euro has to say here shortly.   But the GGEM/GFS either in blend or alone look like  6-8" entry into winter storm headline club

[dryslot]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:27 PM, CoastalWx said:

Next week might be 2-3 systems including 1 larger one. We won't get them all. Some will whiff I think.

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Yeah, I mentioned this in one of the other threads, We won't get all of them especially up here.

[mahk_webstah]

  On 2/5/2025 at 4:36 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

4-8” on superbowl Sunday would give a nice vibe 

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It would certainly help me manage my energy during the day. And then the storm should be over by the time the Super Bowl starts.

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro looks initially like it'll be S of prior, how much so notwithstanding

[dryslot]

  On 2/5/2025 at 5:44 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Euro looks initially like it'll be S of prior, how much so notwithstanding

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Weaker primary then the 06z run.

[brooklynwx99]

euro keeps weakening

[ineedsnow]

we thump!

[brooklynwx99]

the shift in confluence is pretty notable. the evolution is much more similar to that of a Miller B than a SWFE at this point

[ineedsnow]

we Euro! that is a damn good storm for the weekend