Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know people like to get underneath the flashing neon lights of a large PV disruption and finger the 'ole prostate.....but once you pass the momentary climax that represents the culmination of doing just that, there really isn't much to write home about in this neck of the woods. The hope is that something noteworthy will evolve because there is the chance, but I don't see anything imminent that drives me to the lap top.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know people like to get underneath the flashing neon lights of a large PV disruption and finger the 'ole prostate.....but once you pass the momentary climax that represents the culmination of doing just that, there really isn't much to write home about in this neck of the woods. The hope is that something noteworthy will evolve because there is the chance, but I don't see anything imminent that drives me to the lap top.

If your goal is double digits in an event, probably mostly disappointment (maybe something bigger happens late month or March)…but it could easily be a lot of 3-6” type events with some 6-10” inchers mixed in ala 2007-08/2008-09. 

[Spanks45]

Gfs has a high in a good place this run, much better thump to start...  

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If your goal is double digits in an event, probably mostly disappointment (maybe something bigger happens late month or March)…but it could easily be a lot of 3-6” type events with some 6-10” inchers mixed in ala 2007-08/2008-09. 

Thursday is garbage....maybe a few inches this weekend, but still time on that.  Again, no sense of urgency on my part. I don't regret glossing over Sunday night.

[mahk_webstah]

One of the things I watch overtime is the snow totals in the 10 day on Wunderground.   I think it’s some sort of compilation of models so it does give you a good sense of trends.  For Thursday it’s almost always been between four and 5 inches and it is still there at 4.6. For Sunday it’s gone anywhere from 5 to 7 inches and right now it’s at 5.4.
to me, this shows some caution with Sunday, however, there should still should be a solid storm. I think we will vacillate until perhaps Wednesday night or Thursday

 

What’s been interesting about next Tuesday and Wednesday, for what it’s worth, is that it suddenly has jumped to almost 7 inches From about 3 inches overnight.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Gfs has a high in a good place this run, much better thump to start...  

Yep, it is.

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep, it is.

Anchor that a bit SW and force that redevelopment towards Delaware and keep the snow longer for SNE....too much to ask? Ha

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Anchor that a bit SW and force that redevelopment towards Delaware and keep the snow longer for SNE....too much to ask? Ha

06z EPS actually had a lot of redevelopers which kind of surprised me considering the OP run was a bit uglier. Those would both enhance dynamics a bit and prolong the snow before a flip to IP/ZR. 

[mahk_webstah]

I had thought originally when I started this thread that this was a redeveloper, not just a straight warm air advection Southwest flow thing. You know, sometimes they lose the original idea, but then come back to it as it gets closer.

[SouthCoastMA]

CMC looked colder than 0z. Hopefully the euro can make a move at 12z

[UnitedWx]

Man have some of us gotten spoiled! JK, well sort of. I'm happy I get as much enjoyment from just covering the ground as I do with a 12 plus event. Give me an event like Thursday looks to be and multiply it several times and I'm ecstatic.  That's what made 1995/96 winter so special was multiple events like this, not the big ones.

[Spanks45]

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

CMC looked colder than 0z. Hopefully the euro can make a move at 12z

Both the CMC and the GFS have the high in a nicer place....

 

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS actually had a lot of redevelopers which kind of surprised me considering the OP run was a bit uglier. Those would both enhance dynamics a bit and prolong the snow before a flip to IP/ZR. 

Nice to see the GFS and CMC kind of showing that now....Still plenty of time for this to evolve into something better or worse depending on how you look at it. Well timed high would be nice for a change.

[Typhoon Tip]

To each his / her own but 3-5" glazed over with zr ... It's more than insignificant. Shear impact to society sort of validates the former notion in my mind.

Anyway, this one for the weekend:  I find it interesting that the ensemble mean of the GEFs vs the operational GFS are opposit comparing the this event in the foreground.   The 6th has routinely had the ens mean NW of the operational guidance...   Contrasting, the present ensemble mean is pretty significantly south of the operational - so the modeled circumstance in reversed. 

It's hard to determine if this is true with the Euro cluster but perhaps to some lesser degree it appears to be so per 00z. 

In any case, the GEFs move a 1000 mb low S of LI, to between the BM and CC going toward 995 mb - we've  ... or I've been comparing the 6th and the 9th as sort of twins but this GEFs behavior does have greater implication, if not hugely so ...some. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro was pretty decent this event. Solid front ender. Low end warning criteria for many in SNE. 

[mahk_webstah]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro was pretty decent this event. Solid front ender. Low end warning criteria for many in SNE. 

Redeveloper?  
high end advisory low end warning for most of the region was what I am envisioning in the title of the thread.  The kickoff/gate opener to a nice run that follows

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro was pretty decent this event. Solid front ender. Low end warning criteria for many in SNE. 

The EPS has also shifted south.  120 hours is coherently S of the 00z at 132 - which I would think really matters, because this EPS solution is far enough south that given the amount of cold air prior to this one's arrival, this solution is likely a moderate impact snow event "as is" ... and like the comparison between the GEFs mean and the operational GFS, this to is south of it's operational version.   interesting

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The EPS has also shifted south.  120 hours is coherently S of the 00z at 132 - which I would think really matters, because this EPS solution is far enough south that given the amount of cold air prior to this one's arrival, this solution is likely a moderate impact snow event "as is" ... and like the comparison between the GEFs mean and the operational GFS, this to is south of it's operational version.   interesting

Yeah you can see the primary in NY state, but then a siggy amount of members in redevelopment off LI. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah you can see the rpimary in NY state, but then a siggy amount of members in redevelopment off LI. 

Be nice if we get it to slow down.  But that might be for next week

[ORH_wxman]

EPS is pretty bullish on this threat. Mean is around 6” for BOS. A little less but still 4-5” across much of CT. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is pretty bullish on this threat. Mean is around 6” for BOS. A little less but still 4-5” across much of CT. 

Haven't looked at particulars but I would guess the GEFs could be too based on that climo track - even if they aren't printing that out, it's an easy modulation

[ineedsnow]

GFS thumps

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS thumps

Def came south too and the follow up came NW good run

[CoastalWx]

GEFS mean looks like a miller b lol.

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS mean looks like a miller b lol.

Ya that one could be fun I hope it holds

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya that one could be fun I hope it holds

Are you talking the 9th? 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Are you talking the 9th? 

Ya looks good on the GEFS 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya looks good on the GEFS 

Ok thanks pal.  Good to hear. 

[SJonesWX]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Are you talking the 9th? 

Beer?

you are asking this in the thread with the title that begins with “Feb 9”.  
 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

Beer?

you are asking this in the thread with the title that begins with “Feb 9”.  
 

No beer at all…I realize the thread, but the way the post was worded, I found it to be a little vague, and it almost sounded like they might have been referring to the threat after the 9th.  So just wanted to make sure.  Folks have posted comments in the wrong thread many times before…so I thought I’d ask. 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No beer at all…I realize the thread, but the way the post was worded, I found it to be a little vague, and it almost sounded like they might have been referring to the threat after the 9th.  So just wanted to make sure.  Folks have posted comments in the wrong thread many times before…so I thought I’d ask. 

Breh….