Feb 9: Iggles flying, weenies high-fivin’: the kickoff to a great stretch

[mahk_webstah]

Don’t be intimidated by our terrible luck lately.  Dont be discouraged by endless model teasing.  It’s coming.

you can be like Saquon, sprinting through the snow and slapping your head.

both the 6th and the 9th have been on the models for a long time and the progression seems clear. The 6th has some issues with warm air, but the 9th is decidedly colder. And these arent clippers. We are getting into actual storms. Here’s a little clip from the WPC:

Meanwhile farther east, precipitation is likely in association
with a low pressure system located over the Great Lakes by early
Thursday. Rain is forecast across the Tennessee Valley to
southern/central Appalachians, but rain totals are forecast to
decrease by Thursday (compared to Wednesday) and likely stay below
thresholds for any excessive rainfall area on Day 4. Will continue
to monitor though as instability may still be in place for some
locally heavy rain rates. Farther north, cold air in place will
bring the potential for wintry weather to the Northeast.
Probabilities for plowable snow/sleet are increasing across the
Adirondacks into northern New England, while south of the greatest
snow amounts, a transition zone of sleet and/or freezing rain is
likely perhaps around the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New
York/New England. By Friday-Saturday some light to moderate snow is
forecast for the northern tier, but as a low pressure system
organizes over the weekend, increasing precipitation will spread to
the east-central and eastern U.S. again. The current forecast has
the greatest probabilities for impactful snow across much of
Pennsylvania and New York into New England during the weekend. 
 

and their pretty map:

[UnitedWx]

I've had a gut feeling this season that we wouldn't go wall to wall with no action this season. Lets get some of these in the pipeline to verify!

[mahk_webstah]

36 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I've had a gut feeling this season that we wouldn't go wall to wall with no action this season. Lets get some of these in the pipeline to verify!

Yup. Like Jalen there’s a lot of ways to get it done and we are gonna get it done.

[Typhoon Tip]

This event - to me - looks like it has the same circumstance of uncertainty at this range, that plagued ( and still does...) this D6 system in the foreground.  It's evolving along a compressed/very fast flow.  Excessive needle threading requires precision that's going to be hard to come by at a D5 or 6 lead...  

For now, the tracks seem to be N of the triple point lat/lon nexus we see for the 6th.  All guidance I've seen from 00z have a low up NW of ALB, But like the 6th, the speed of the approaching wave/storm mechanics is so fast it outpaces the lower tropospheric ability to modulate/"scour out" the cold.  This leads to the IB pulse snows that then go to pellets S and perhaps staying S N - circumstantially, this latter obviously favoring central and NNE if the track stays - not sure we can count on that, however.  

There seems to be a bit of hint to more secondary in the EPS and GEFs..which may be an indicator for a future correction but that's purely supposition for now.

 

[OceanStWx]

That's a pretty strong ensemble signal for 7 days out.

Normally you see a little more spread on timing, but every member is generally within the same 24 hour window.

[mahk_webstah]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This event - to me - looks like it has the same circumstance of uncertainty at this range, that plagued ( and still does...) this D6 system in the foreground.  It's evolving along a compressed/very fast flow.  Excessive needle threading requires precision that's going to be hard to come by at a D5 or 6 lead...  

For now, the tracks seem to be N of the triple point lat/lon nexus we see for the 6th.  All guidance I've seen from 00z have a low up NW of ALB, But like the 6th, the speed of the approaching wave/storm mechanics is so fast it outpaces the lower tropospheric ability to modulate/"scour out" the cold.  This leads to the IB pulse snows that then go to pellets S and perhaps staying S N - circumstantially, this latter obviously favoring central and NNE if the track stays - not sure we can count on that, however.  

There seems to be a bit of hint to more secondary in the EPS and GEFs..which may be an indicator for a future correction but that's purely supposition for now.

 

The correction vectors seem to be pointing in the right direction on this one. That’s why I’m so optimistic. In the end, I suspect this gets most of southern New England with at least a few inches and a crust. You have to assume there’s gonna be an all-encompassing storm for the whole region and probably other regions. But not this one. The intangibles are leaning our way this time around.

[Damage In Tolland]

The dude loves his WPC

[dryslot]

So do the WFO's.

[mahk_webstah]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The dude loves his WPC

Yes, I do. And the ensembles and just about every model suite and a lot of meteorologists.  There should’ve been a thread on this already. So I made it happen.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Mahk bringing the good juju. Lets get it.

[OceanStWx]

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

So do the WFO's.

Don't let Kevin know that every max expected amount map he posts from BOX uses WPC.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Mahk bringing the good juju. Lets get it.

My last thread was the Yiddish one during QQomeganon’s “no changes” winter.  Ended up with 96”.  Schnee!!!

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Don't let Kevin know that every max expected amount map he posts from BOX uses WPC.

Sometimes the KFC gets it right, especially when it’s spicy and extra crunchy.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Don't let Kevin know that every max expected amount map he posts from BOX uses WPC.

Which is 96% HREF based 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Which is 96% HREF based 

Only 96% off if you want to be literal, but there are things that go into the HREF that are part of their super ensemble.

For reference, inside 3 days you get the Euro op and 25 ensemble members, the GFS op, GEFS mean, and 10 GEFS members, 10 GEPS members, a SREF mean, and then some combination of the HRRR, NAM, FV3, NMMB, ARW as available.

[UnitedWx]

14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Sometimes the KFC gets it right, especially when it’s spicy and extra crunchy.

They haven't made anything but soggy for 30 years...

[mahk_webstah]

18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Only 96% off if you want to be literal, but there are things that go into the HREF that are part of their super ensemble.

For reference, inside 3 days you get the Euro op and 25 ensemble members, the GFS op, GEFS mean, and 10 GEFS members, 10 GEPS members, a SREF mean, and then some combination of the HRRR, NAM, FV3, NMMB, ARW as available.

Preachin n teachin

[Typhoon Tip]

The Euro's 12z, 120 hour layout is right out of a mid March winter storm set up... 

HUGE  thickness dipole across the eastward extension of the polar boundary - March's and even latter February's this gets to be interesting.  Here we are signaling why storms at that time of year can once in a while, massively over-achieve.

The only limitation to this one is likely to be the attending S/W is probably being attenuated for moving through a very compressed field, otherwise, in principle, that could be a very dangerous set up.  As is, it probably means that it would likely over produce where ever it is precipitating as the storm formulates through that gradient pathway -

[ORH_wxman]

Euro has been waffling back and forth a bit on this threat. 12z run made the primary more zonked again so not much snow at all for CT/RI…and maybe only a couple of inches this solution for the pike region. But if you back off just slightly on that primary intrusion, then you could easily go 4-8” too. Details to be ironed out. 

[mahk_webstah]

I guess it’s a question of whether it’s gonna tend to correct in one way or another way

[mahk_webstah]

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Fun

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

GFS much flatter and weaker..pretty much all snow in SNE with that run. 

[MJO812]

Euro colder and further south 

[Snowcrazed71]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro colder and further south 

Wondering how close in line it is getting with the GFS now

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Wondering how close in line it is getting with the GFS now

Eps also shifted south 

[ineedsnow]

we take the ICON

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

we take the ICON

You would, I wouldnt.

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

You would, I wouldnt.

this is for Sunday. almost all of SNE does good 

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

this is for Sunday. almost all of SNE does good 

Oh, thought you meant the 6th storm, I agree, I like it for that one.

[Typhoon Tip]

Again … very similar in size and duration as this event on the 6th.