Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[donsutherland1]

This event continues to look like the biggest one so far this winter for the New York City region.

[ag3]

2”-4” seems like a good early call for the nyc metro. 4”-7” north and west.

[winterwarlock]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not sure why this would be disappointing, would likely be Central Park's largest snowfall total for the year and was always supposed to be a mix event.

I don't live in central park..I live in central jersey

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Congrats north west crew 

this is slop for the metro 

Always like that 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, ag3 said:

2”-4” seems like a good early call for the nyc metro. 4”-7” north and west.

1-3 for me and most likely more for you and north shore of LI.

[BoulderWX]

11 minutes ago, ag3 said:

2”-4” seems like a good early call for the nyc metro. 4”-7” north and west.

I think north does much better than west on this on this one. I don’t like my spot in this one at all. I’m still of the 1-4” mindset for most of the subforum and then a 4-6” band north and east of the city. 

[jm1220]

I’ll go 2-4”, 2” on the south shore/I-78, 4” along the north shore/I-80. 6” once you get north of White Plains/CT coast. For the southern NYC/LI areas hopefully some is left after it goes to rain. Inland it might just go to sleet. It’ll pad the snow totals for the season but I have pretty much zero excitement personally for a storm like this. Congrats inland and SNE. Seems pretty straightforward 6-8 locally 10” event for them up to Boston. 

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I don't live in central park..I live in central jersey

My apologies, then yes you should be very disappointed.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’ll go 2-4”, 2” on the south shore/I-78, 4” along the north shore/I-80. 6” once you get north of White Plains/CT coast. For the southern NYC/LI areas hopefully some is left after it goes to rain. Inland it might just go to sleet. It’ll pad the snow totals for the season but I have pretty much zero excitement personally for a storm like this. Congrats inland and SNE. Seems pretty straightforward 6-8 locally 10” event for them up to Boston. 

Why ? Any snow is good. Enjoy it and stop being a scrooge.

[MJO812]

Hrdps

[the_other_guy]

This is gradient life boys.

40 degrees out this morning.

What exactly do you want in concreteville?

 

[psv88]

Still going 1-2” for city and coast. Warm air always is under modeled. The NAM is always the best model with thermals. Never sleep on the NAM at this range to sniff out the killer warm tongue 

[anthonymm]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Still going 1-2” for city and coast. Warm air always is under modeled. The NAM is always the best model with thermals. Never sleep on the NAM at this range to sniff out the killer warm tongue 

They always underdo the warm nose. I think even 2" is impossible for the city proper. This is a non event, likely repeat of the last one. Coating of sleet/slop that melts before sunset. 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

This is gradient life boys.

40 degrees out this morning.

What exactly do you want in concreteville?

 

NYC is the worst place to live for winter weather. Sadly.

7 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

They always underdo the warm nose. I think even 2" is impossible for the city proper. This is a non event, likely repeat of the last one. Coating of sleet/slop that melts before sunset. 

This isn't even like the last event. There is a secondary that develops with this storm ( rather weak ) but that might keep the cold air longer.

NWS thinks a few inches foe NYC is possible. I still like 1-3 maybe 2-4.

[pstar3182]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Still going 1-2” for city and coast. Warm air always is under modeled. The NAM is always the best model with thermals. Never sleep on the NAM at this range to sniff out the killer warm tongue 

Get Nam'd

[anthonymm]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 

This isn't even like the last event. There is a secondary that develops with this storm ( rather weak ) but that might keep the cold air longer.

NWS thinks a few inches foe NYC is possible. I still like 1-3 maybe 2-4.

"might". Yes I basically agree with your estimate but the low end. I'd be pretty damn surprised if anywhere in manhattan or brooklyn gets above 1.5"

[TJW014]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC is the worst place to live for winter weather. Sadly.

This isn't even like the last event. There is a secondary that develops with this storm ( rather weak ) but that might keep the cold air longer.

NWS thinks a few inches foe NYC is possible. I still like 1-3 maybe 2-4.

Try coastal Ocean County

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

"might". Yes I basically agree with your estimate but the low end. I'd be pretty damn surprised if anywhere in manhattan or brooklyn gets above 1.5"

We shall see

[pstar3182]

7 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Try coastal Ocean County

Only some much you can do with any on shore winds and a 40+ degree ocean. 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, RU848789 said:

0Z NAM and ICON, fwiw...still think the NAM map with the "hole" in CNJ is improbable (I get a bigger early thump SW of CNJ and more N of CNJ with the later coastal, but not sure I've ever seen this before).  

Also, kind of curious if folks in this forum like seeing the zoomed in Pivotal maps or the regional mid-Atlantic or NEUS maps.  

what is the reason for that weird wavy line that goes up and down? The nam has some interesting features lol

 

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

This is gradient life boys.

40 degrees out this morning.

What exactly do you want in concreteville?

 

the real issue is that there is no real cold air around.

when we had it in January the pattern was suppressed

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I’ll go 2-4”, 2” on the south shore/I-78, 4” along the north shore/I-80. 6” once you get north of White Plains/CT coast. For the southern NYC/LI areas hopefully some is left after it goes to rain. Inland it might just go to sleet. It’ll pad the snow totals for the season but I have pretty much zero excitement personally for a storm like this. Congrats inland and SNE. Seems pretty straightforward 6-8 locally 10” event for them up to Boston. 

6 inches maybe, I doubt Boston gets 8-10.  Logan is right on the water

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not sure why this would be disappointing, would likely be Central Park's largest snowfall total for the year and was always supposed to be a mix event.

Because most of it will be melted by the time they wake up in the morning lol

NYC's largest snowfall is under 2 inches, so not much to brag about.

On TWC they are talking about how NYC doesn't get big snowstorms anymore because of the warming climate lol.

[BxEngine]

[Nibor]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC is the worst place to live for winter weather. Sadly.

This isn't even like the last event. There is a secondary that develops with this storm ( rather weak ) but that might keep the cold air longer.

NWS thinks a few inches foe NYC is possible. I still like 1-3 maybe 2-4.

Bold claim when Miami exists. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Nibor said:

Bold claim when Miami exists. 

Well parts of Florida are running ahead of NYC 

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Because most of it will be melted by the time they wake up in the morning lol

NYC's largest snowfall is under 2 inches, so not much to brag about.

On TWC they are talking about how NYC doesn't get big snowstorms anymore because of the warming climate lol.

That's hilarious about TWC. The climate is warming however why not throw in there that suppressed storms of the past would be pumped up and hit us due to the more present Southeast ridge and the virga storms of the past like 1987 would be more snow due to the higher moisture content in higher temperatures? They need to paint the total picture lol. 

I mean this storm was never supposed to be a big event I think two to four for Central Park is a big win. This is the 1970 through 1999 period in a nutshell, cold and dry warm and wet or a complete toaster baths with extreme warm Winters or frigid Winters with no precept. Every year growing up it was pulling teeth trying to get an all snow event LOL.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's hilarious about TWC. The climate is warming however why not throw in there that suppressed storms of the past would be pumped up and hit us due to the more present Southeast ridge and the virga storms of the past like 1987 would be more snow due to the higher moisture content in higher temperatures? They need to paint the total picture lol. 

I mean this storm was never supposed to be a big event I think two to four for Central Park is a big win. This is the 1970 through 1999 period in a nutshell, cold and dry warm and wet or a complete toaster baths with extreme warm Winters or frigid Winters with no precept. Every year growing up it was pulling teeth trying to get an old snow event LOL.

 

I'm excited about the Tuesday-Wednesday storm, I think that's *our* storm.  Saturday night is okay, but it'll probably be all melted by the time I wake up in the morning lol.  I think Saturday night is easier to take because something big is coming a few days after it.

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm excited about the Tuesday-Wednesday storm, I think that's *our* storm.  Saturday night is okay, but it'll probably be all melted by the time I wake up in the morning lol.  I think Saturday night is easier to take because something big is coming a few days after it.

 

That storm will be washed away by rain Thursday so doesn't count

[anthonymm]

Latest NAM run is a middle finger to nyc. a perfect nyc shaped snow hole. its gonna verify.