Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[weatherpruf]

The parade of piddly events continues. 

[SnowGoose69]

There's a ton of notable events in the analogs but to me none of them resemble this.  The problem with CIPS is it tends to grab by region so the pattern overall may not be close.  3/19/92 has some similarities but the pattern was may more favorable in Canada that kept that storm more south.  To me 12/19/08 is actually the closest match to this storm.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us1219.php

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2025020612&map=thbCOOP72

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There's a ton of notable events in the analogs but to me none of them resemble this.  The problem with CIPS is it tends to grab by region so the pattern overall may not be close.  3/19/92 has some similarities but the pattern was may more favorable in Canada that kept that storm more south.  To me 12/19/08 is actually the closest match to this storm.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us1219.php

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2025020612&map=thbCOOP72

That 1992 storm gave 6 inches to NYC but less than 4 at JFK if I remember correctly, it kept going back and forth depending on ptype and we never had much snowdepth during that storm.

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That 1992 storm gave 6 inches to NYC but less than 4 at JFK if I remember correctly, it kept going back and forth depending on ptype and we never had much snowdepth during that storm.

 

I think LGA/JFK stayed all snow, JFK may have had PL mixed in at times, it was anticipated we'd change to rain and we never did but the March sun angle and marginal temps led to tons of melting and compacting.  I measured 7 at the time in Astoria and LGA reported close to that but if that event was 4-5 weeks earlier we'd have had a foot

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think LGA/JFK stayed all snow, JFK may have had PL mixed in at times, it was anticipated we'd change to rain and we never did but the March sun angle and marginal temps led to tons of melting and compacting.  I measured 7 at the time in Astoria and LGA reported close to that but if that event was 4-5 weeks earlier we'd have had a foot

Was that the first 6" snowstorm in a few years?

yes that March sun angle definitely did it, I remember a lot of melting during lulls.

We had a similar storm around March 21, 1994 the last storm in that excellent winter, 4 inches all snow (just like the first storm that winter back around the winter solstice in December), but during lulls in intensity the snowcover would melt.

 

[BoulderWX]

2-3” on the GFS before the changeover. Best snow continues to be over SNE for this one. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

19 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

2-3” on the GFS before the changeover. Best snow continues to be over SNE for this one. 

I would say the best snow continues to be interior SENY, orange , Putnam and Dutchess as is more often the case. Coastal SNE more often than not does poorly on these, no better than the northshore of LI. 

[MJO812]

18z ukie

[allgame830]

49 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

2-3” on the GFS before the changeover. Best snow continues to be over SNE for this one. 

Snow map? I never can seem to find it lol

[jm1220]

52 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I would say the best snow continues to be interior SENY, orange , Putnam and Dutchess as is more often the case. Coastal SNE more often than not does poorly on these, no better than the northshore of LI. 

Boston will probably do quite well. I'd say over 6". N shore might get 1" more than the S shore gets. I wouldn't go higher than 2-3" for the NYC area at this point. If we see more N bumps, more like 1-2". I-84 to I-90 is the best zone for this. 

[dmillz25]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Boston will probably do quite well. I'd say over 6". N shore might get 1" more than the S shore gets. I wouldn't go higher than 2-3" for the NYC area at this point. If we see more N bumps, more like 1-2". I-84 to I-90 is the best zone for this. 

I get the pessimism but im seeing a stronger confluence in SE Canada 

[sussexcountyobs]

9 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I get the pessimism but im seeing a stronger confluence in SE Canada 

I agree. Alot of pessimism on here. Lots of stuff to track. I see my area getting 12" maybe more over the next 7 days. Should be happy times. We got 1" today.

[RU848789]

Nice to see the Euro beefing up precip/snowfall vs. 12Z.  Now the GFS, Euro, CMC and UK are all showing at least 4-8" for our region with the GFS showing 8-12"+ at 18Z.  Extremely strong signal for a storm 5 days out.  

[SHELEG]

This post is in the wrong thread.

[Allsnow]

18z euro was 2-4 to sleet for nyc. It was a bit warmer with the 546 line by nyc but the initial thump was stronger 

[Allsnow]

[psv88]

Going with 1-2” for the island. Think she trends north. 

[allgame830]

33 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z euro was 2-4 to sleet for nyc. It was a bit warmer with the 546 line by nyc but the initial thump was stronger 

I get that this is NYC subforum, but it would be helpful just to saw a map because not everyone lives in the NYC proper.

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

I get that this is NYC subforum, but it would be helpful just to saw a map because not everyone lives in the NYC proper.

4-8 for you 

 

assuming it stays where it’s at 

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

4-8 for you 

 

assuming it stays where it’s at 

Right. I’d like to see a bit of south trend so then the whole region is 4-8 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

I get the pessimism but im seeing a stronger confluence in SE Canada 

Maybe the Euro AI can save us all. This type of storm isn’t favorable for places along I-80 and south latitude. You get a diamond once in a blue moon like 2/22/08 but most are lousy disappointments while I-90 cleans up. If we can develop confluence or resistance over SE Canada it could be a game changer but otherwise this type of system tries to pump ridging ahead of it and come north especially when it’s a more consolidated system with more access to moisture. 

[dmillz25]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe the Euro AI can save us all. This type of storm isn’t favorable for places along I-80 and south latitude. You get a diamond once in a blue moon like 2/22/08 but most are lousy disappointments while I-90 cleans up. If we can develop confluence or resistance over SE Canada it could be a game changer but otherwise this type of system tries to pump ridging ahead of it and come north especially when it’s a more consolidated system with more access to moisture. 

I get it and Ive seen it more often than not but with how it’s looking so far its a rather strong confluence 

[Allsnow]

Euro Ai continues to look very good. I can only see 850’s on Weatherbell. Perhaps @MJO812 can post 540

[Nibor]

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Thanks. Sleet line probably makes it to the Driscoll bridge 

[RU848789]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

For ice storm warnings I think it's half an inch of ice though not completely sure.

There is no separate warning for sleet as the totals are integrated into snowfall totals. 2-3:1 ratio.

WWA begins at 1 inch here.

3 inches of snow and 0.1 ice would be WWA (I think) BUT 4 inches of snow + some ice would be a WSW (I've seen WSW for 4-6 inches of snow before.)

4-6 inches is the minimum for WSW from what I've seen.

 

Advisories north of 276/195 are for 3" not 1" (and 2" south of 276/195); but advisories can be posted for less snowfall when freezing rain over 0.01" is expected, as we just saw today.  Also, I was once told by a NWS person that the criterion for a county needs to be met for at least half of that county, i.e., a warning for Essex County, for example is where 6" is expected for at least half of the county (which is why so many counties with often sharp gradients are split in half).  The maps below are at the linked website.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/WinterWx

 

12 Hour Advisory Snowfall:

 

12 Hour Snowfall Warning Criteria

 

Ice Storm Warning Crtieria

[SnowGoose69]

Funny how the HRRR at 48 is a straight up torch and way north this time, meanwhile it was way south and an ice box with today's event.  NAM looks close to the Euro/GFS overall

[MJO812]

Icon has 3-5 for NYC and LI. Came south.

[MJO812]

Chris Cimino on Pix 11 is going with 3-5 for NYC.

[RU848789]

0Z NAM and ICON, fwiw...still think the NAM map with the "hole" in CNJ is improbable (I get a bigger early thump SW of CNJ and more N of CNJ with the later coastal, but not sure I've ever seen this before).  

Also, kind of curious if folks in this forum like seeing the zoomed in Pivotal maps or the regional mid-Atlantic or NEUS maps.