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Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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WestBabylonWeather
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And if you say its gonna miss or not a big deal, then just move on. For some here its a decent weekend snow event. Repeating yourself in numerous threads saying non event is gonna be the end of the po

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2025 at 4:20 PM, NEG NAO said:

lol - should have listened to me yesterday when I got all those weenies for downplaying todays and the weekend event - Shouldn't be using the Mesoscale NAM yet.......

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This one will be much different north of the city… only reason for the cancellations was due to the ice. This event looks much better organized and has more QPF 

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

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  On 2/6/2025 at 4:26 PM, allgame830 said:

This one will be much different north of the city… only reason for the cancellations was due to the ice. This event looks much better organized and has more QPF 

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of course anytime there is precip around the north colder environment is always favored for frozen - what I was downplaying was the immediate NYC metro and points slightly west ( eastern essex / passaic / union and east and south of the city

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allgame830

allgame830

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  On 2/6/2025 at 4:32 PM, NEG NAO said:

of course anytime there is precip around the north colder environment is always favored for frozen - what I was downplaying was the immediate NYC metro and points slightly west ( eastern essex / passaic / union and east and south of the city

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Ahhh I gotcha sorry if I misunderstood. Just hit 32 here and mostly everything is encased in ice except the streets since they plowed and salted but probably still very slick in places. What’s your thoughts for the weekend? 

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snowman19

snowman19

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  On 2/6/2025 at 3:57 PM, MJO812 said:

1-3 is a good bet

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Here comes the last 48 hour north trend @Allsnow warned about yesterday. The surface high leaves and moves OTS before the storm gets here, there’s no -NAO block or 50/50 Low to hold confluence/high in and the AO is positive. Also, you have the SE ridge flexing. If convection blows up in the SE the latent/sensible heat release aloft is going to strengthen the SE ridge even more. There is a decided midlevel warm nose on the GFS now, also one on the RGEM. The midlevel low tracks aren’t good either. I don’t think the north trend is done 

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the_other_guy

the_other_guy

Posted
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  On 2/6/2025 at 4:20 PM, NEG NAO said:

lol - should have listened to me yesterday when I got all those weenies for downplaying todays and the weekend event - Shouldn't be using the Mesoscale NAM yet.......

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This.

Marginal events dont do well in NYC. Too close to coast, flat terrain, too much cement.

 

Im 30 miles north and today still woefully under performed.

 

They will find a map that they love and run with it, but it doesnt change the outcome. And let’s face it, that .5 in CPK this morning was a BS measurement

 

 

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BoulderWX

BoulderWX

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I think everyone is/was aware it could trend either direction but no doubt the 12Z suite is not what most want to see. I’ve felt SNE would be the spot to be on this one, but still think my call of 1-4” will pan out for much of the subforum aside from southern NJ

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jm1220

jm1220

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Since this is a more consolidated vort/stronger system overall than today, it will want to trend north unless something to the north like confluence can stop it which we don’t have. If we see more north shifts tonight I would call this one another fail for NYC/coast. 

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2025 at 4:34 PM, allgame830 said:

Ahhh I gotcha sorry if I misunderstood. Just hit 32 here and mostly everything is encased in ice except the streets since they plowed and salted but probably still very slick in places. What’s your thoughts for the weekend? 

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1-3 sounds good as of now -still say if it turns to rain or is sunny close to freezing or above for a couple days before the mid week event NYC metro will melt again -- what do you think ?

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snowman19

snowman19

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  On 2/6/2025 at 4:55 PM, jm1220 said:

Since this is a more consolidated vort/stronger system overall than today, it will want to trend north unless something to the north like confluence can stop it which we don’t have. If we see more north shifts tonight I would call this one another fail for NYC/coast. 

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Agree. If there was a -NAO block or strong 50/50 low to counteract the SE ridge and force everything south/lock the surface high and confluence in, it would be game on Saturday night. I think we are just seeing the beginning of a north trend

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

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  On 2/6/2025 at 5:13 PM, snowman19 said:

Agree. If there was a -NAO block or strong 50/50 low to counteract the SE ridge and force everything south/lock the surface high and confluence in, it would be game on Saturday night. I think we are just seeing the beginning of a north trend

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on the other hand, those would just cause suppression

 

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CPcantmeasuresnow

CPcantmeasuresnow

Posted
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  On 2/6/2025 at 4:43 PM, the_other_guy said:

This.

Marginal events dont do well in NYC. Too close to coast, flat terrain, too much cement.

 

Im 30 miles north and today still woefully under performed.

 

They will find a map that they love and run with it, but it doesnt change the outcome. And let’s face it, that .5 in CPK this morning was a BS measurement

 

 

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Good, it makes up for all of the times the last several years, and throughout history, they didn't even bother measuring events less than an inch. They took a lot of heat early in the season for the BS low measurements, seems like they've gotten on top of it the last three events, if you can call them that.

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Dark Star

Dark Star

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Posted
  On 2/6/2025 at 4:43 PM, the_other_guy said:

This.

Marginal events dont do well in NYC. Too close to coast, flat terrain, too much cement.

 

Im 30 miles north and today still woefully under performed.

 

They will find a map that they love and run with it, but it doesnt change the outcome. And let’s face it, that .5 in CPK this morning was a BS measurement

 

 

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I cry foul as well.  No way Newark measured 0.5 ".  It had to be estimated...

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

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  On 2/6/2025 at 5:31 PM, BoulderWX said:

Seems reasonable - nice storm for SNE. 

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I hope everyone knows our favorable period wasn't supposed to come until after the 10th. 

The AO is still positive and MJO unfavorable. 

Not surprised to see models look better for next week. This is definitely SNE storm but hopefully we can get something too

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ILoveWinter

ILoveWinter

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2025 at 4:43 PM, the_other_guy said:

This.

Marginal events dont do well in NYC. Too close to coast, flat terrain, too much cement.

 

Im 30 miles north and today still woefully under performed.

 

They will find a map that they love and run with it, but it doesnt change the outcome. And let’s face it, that .5 in CPK this morning was a BS measurement

 

 

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? It was not BS, my window faces a small park and the ground was certainly covered enough to indicate a half inch. 

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