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Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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WestBabylonWeather
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And if you say its gonna miss or not a big deal, then just move on. For some here its a decent weekend snow event. Repeating yourself in numerous threads saying non event is gonna be the end of the po

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Franklin0529

Franklin0529

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The problem with NAM is on Tuesday it was also showing several inches for todays (Thursdays) event and as it got closer and closer that amount dwindled down to an inch or 2 which ended up a dusting for many of us  closer to NYC

It's not just the nam though lol. Every model is trending the right way for us

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BoulderWX

BoulderWX

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

It's not just the nam though lol. Every model is trending the right way for us

I honestly am torn on the Saturday night event. I like the trends but it’s clearly a borderline situation. If I had to start with a prediction, I’d lean to a 1-4” as a starting point for the subforum with the highest amounts to the north and places with elevation. 
 

this is shaping up to be a very nice storm for SNE and it wouldnt take much to for most of the subforum to see a 3-6” event but for now, I’ll remain conservative until I see tonight’s 0Z suite. 
 

 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

sn10_024h-imp.us_ne (1).png

Definitely looking better from a track perspective. I think the risk here, if we even want to call it a risk as it would be snow, would be less precipitation. Forky mentioned he was not a fan of the compressed flow which can cause the shredder effect. Something to keep a pulse on. Right now looks fantastic.

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted

Saturday
A 20 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. 
Saturday Night
Snow before 4am, then snow and sleet. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
 
not sure how this next event is the same. Same type of system yes, but the air mass and position of L looks different. 
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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Precip expands at 66 but should be a decent hit for our area 

should only consider the NAM up to 60 hours after that it is less reliable - in fact maybe only 48 hours demonstrated by how it performed a couple of days out for todays event

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

We already have a couple of fairly snowy predictions being made by both News12 and TWC, which both have a lot more snow forecast than today's event, as per the maps below. On the other hand, as per below (since no map yet), the NWS is a bit less bullish with 1-3" from about 276/195 to 78 and 3-5" north of 78, but 1" or less south of 276/195 (including Philly/SNJ). Stay tuned.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

In terms of amounts, the current forecast calls for 0.40-0.70" of liquid QPF. Breaking this down into snow/sleet totals, anticipate a C-1" for the northern Delmarva and much of the I-95 corridor including the Philadelphia metro. Just north of the I-95 corridor up to and including the I-78 corridor, expecting 1-3". Once north of the I-78 corridor and especially north of I-80, amounts upwards of 3- 5" are possible. There will also be freezing rain accretion over most of the area, but amounts should generally range from a T-0.1" (locally higher). Considering this, Winter Weather headlines will likely be needed within the next 24-48 hours.

dNQPBUR.jpg

Dw7Hsfb.jpg

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

We already have a couple of fairly snowy predictions being made by both News12 and TWC, which both have a lot more snow forecast than today's event, as per the maps below. On the other hand, as per below (since no map yet), the NWS is a bit less bullish with 1-3" from about 276/195 to 78 and 3-5" north of 78, but 1" or less south of 276/195 (including Philly/SNJ). Stay tuned.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

In terms of amounts, the current forecast calls for 0.40-0.70" of liquid QPF. Breaking this down into snow/sleet totals, anticipate a C-1" for the northern Delmarva and much of the I-95 corridor including the Philadelphia metro. Just north of the I-95 corridor up to and including the I-78 corridor, expecting 1-3". Once north of the I-78 corridor and especially north of I-80, amounts upwards of 3- 5" are possible. There will also be freezing rain accretion over most of the area, but amounts should generally range from a T-0.1" (locally higher). Considering this, Winter Weather headlines will likely be needed within the next 24-48 hours.

dNQPBUR.jpg

Dw7Hsfb.jpg

Yeah that 5-8 prediction by TWC for here was pretty shocking

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hudsonvalley21

hudsonvalley21

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

 

Saturday
A 20 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. 
Saturday Night
Snow before 4am, then snow and sleet. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
 
not sure how this next event is the same. Same type of system yes, but the air mass and position of L looks different. 

Point n click forecast for MBY in Orange County 

Saturday

A 20 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Light and variable wind. 

Saturday Night

Snow before 4am, then snow and sleet. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. 

Sunday

A 50 percent chance of snow before 11am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 37.

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Point n click forecast for MBY in Orange County 

Saturday

A 20 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Light and variable wind. 

Saturday Night

Snow before 4am, then snow and sleet. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. 

Sunday

A 50 percent chance of snow before 11am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 37.

Warning snows this weekend up here in the HV are likely. Nothing like this current storm 

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vegan_edible

vegan_edible

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yeah that’s one reason why I posted the point and click! Do you believe I’ll fair well being 30 miles N of the city Thornwood/Hawthorne NY? 

we always do better up this way. remember in the absolute miserable year that was 22/23 we somehow pulled 5ish inches out of the late feb event but the city got skunked entirely? i assume we're gonna be on the high side of the metro readings

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah that 5-8 prediction by TWC for here was pretty shocking

I’d rather be north of here for this one. RGEM actually went north at 12z and there’s plenty of time for a N bump that tends to happen in SWFEs. The best place to be is probably I-84 corridor to I-90 unless we see a mass S migration on the models. I’d call 3-5” a pretty big win for I-80/NYC/LI. N suburbs likely 6”+.

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

we always do better up this way. remember in the absolute miserable year that was 22/23 we somehow pulled 5ish inches out of the late feb event but the city got skunked entirely? i assume we're gonna be on the high side of the metro readings

I think north of 287 - that ol' battleground - looks good for ~6 inches right now.  I feel like for all of the systems coming down the pike the next week or so, 287 will demarcate the all snow zones vs. some taint.  Have to sniff taint to get the good stuff I'm told.  

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