Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[Stormlover74]

Yeah definitely should reach the city between 730 and 8

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

As of 6 PM you have to be north of I80 if you want to find snow in PA.  The only exception is Fort Indiantown Gap which is reporting flurries.  Everyone else is reporting ice / sleet/ wintry mix or rain.  All Pittsburgh reporting sites are reporting thunderstorms.  

so mixed precip even in the Poconos south of I-80?

[EastonSN+]

Dual pol radar showing mix line well.

[EastonSN+]

It's funny when you see the next line so far south in the Delmarva yet it's close to the Poconos as well. East is just as important as North in the storm.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

It's funny when you see the next line so far south in the Delmarva yet it's close to the Poconos as well. East is just as important as North in the storm.

Yes, the cold air is banked to the east.  This is similar to those suppressed systems that hit west of us but the further east you go the further south the snow gets.  This time the cold air works in our favor.

 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's funny when you see the next line so far south in the Delmarva yet it's close to the Poconos as well. East is just as important as North in the storm.

Reading the central PA forum pretty much everyone is starting as then pounding sleet. Hopefully around Allentown we see the cold air make a better stand, otherwise from I-80 on south we probably just start as a pellet fest. 

[RU848789]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

CC radar has sleet almost to Williamsport. HRRR is too cold. 

Yep, just looked at that and can see the sleet signature.  Also, the main part of my comparison was the radar intensity/precip looking much more robust and close to the HRRR as opposed to the NAM.  There have been two "trends" that concern most - less precip on the NAM and some other models, especially W and SW of NYC and faster WAA driven transition to sleet like the NAM vs. what some of the models show.  Personally, I'd rather get the higher QPF and mostly sleet than low QPF and sleet (if I can't have snow).  

[EastonSN+]

Did the national weather service always have 3 to 7 in for Central Park for the storm? That is what's there in the point and click.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Reading the central PA forum pretty much everyone is starting as then pounding sleet. Hopefully around Allentown we see the cold air make a better stand, otherwise from I-80 on south we probably just start as a pellet fest. 

It actually sinks South as it heads East slightly.

[Santa Claus]

my elves have been working day and night on a nice sleet storm and i hope you enjoy it

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Reading the central PA forum pretty much everyone is starting as then pounding sleet. Hopefully around Allentown we see the cold air make a better stand, otherwise from I-80 on south we probably just start as a pellet fest. 

Even ABE is now reporting UP, but honestly the 12Z Euro showed them mixing by 01z, its just a question if the area from like SMQ ENE through the metro sees the sleet line stall

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

31 degrees and just started raining in Flemington 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Reading the central PA forum pretty much everyone is starting as then pounding sleet. Hopefully around Allentown we see the cold air make a better stand, otherwise from I-80 on south we probably just start as a pellet fest. 

Central pa was always supposed to mix 

[Santa Claus]

1 minute ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said:

31 degrees and just started raining in Flemington 

lol brutal

maybe a little FZR?

[lee59]

31.9 here with still a light east wind. That does not sound promising but just saw AccuWeather on channel 7 and they are still with a heavy hit of snow the first few hours putting down 2-4 around the city and 4-8 north. Maybe an inch per hour.

[wdrag]

ice pellets to start in Wantage NJ...  29.1F. 707P/8

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

31.9 here with still a light east wind. That does not sound promising but just saw AccuWeather on channel 7 and they are still with a heavy hit of snow the first few hours putting down 2-4 around the city and 4-8 north. Maybe an inch per hour.

Dewpoints are in the low 20s so we’ll wetbulb down, but we still have an onshore wind so that will try to raise temps. Then of course we have the strong mid level WAA at 750mb. 

[Allsnow]

You can see the sleet line sinking south just past Abe on cc

[RU848789]

37 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Not sure where you got that radar view on the bottom from but it’s not correct.

Thanks, shouldn't have trusted the weathertap radar, lol.  Dual pol shows the sleet signature pretty well in PA; as I just said in another post, my comparison was more about the precip intensity being much closer to the HRRR than the NAM, which is still a good thing at least for now.

[MANDA]

7:30 start time looking on target for my location.

Temp up a bit to 27.9 from 27.0 about 90 min ago.

Walt, keep us posted on ptype your location.  Not particularly happy that you are reporting IP.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You can see the sleet line sinking south just past Abe on cc

Yeah places in lehigh valley are starting as sleet and flipping to snow. Hopefully we can squeeze out an hour or two

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah places in lehigh valley are starting as sleet and flipping to snow. Hopefully we can squeeze out an hour or two

Not sure it will be much more than that.  I doubt it.

[MJO812]

[jm1220]

On CC radar sleet is pinned right around ABE and not advancing yet. 

[BoulderWX]

First pings in Morristown - 29F

[TJW014]

Straight rain here. Not even a ping. Started about 10 minutes ago. 

[winterwarlock]

Rain/sleet mix has begun in Belle Mead 32 degrees

[Pequest]

EDIT: 7:25 PM, we've since flipped from sleet to light snow.

 

 

Central Warren County and hearing pingers already on the windows. Guess no snow for us again much like the last storm on Thursday. Another sleet fest.

[the_other_guy]

Sleet all the way up in HPN haha

[ebwx]

Sleet in East Brunswick